92S INVEST 200104 1800 8.2S 133.5E SHEM 15 0
SIO: Claudia - Ex-TC
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Nancy Smar
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SIO: Claudia - Ex-TC
Last edited by Nancy Smar on Sat Jan 11, 2020 11:04 am, edited 3 times in total.
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1900hurricane
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Re: SIO: INVEST 92S
Looks like it could be a coast hugger when it eventually decides to move SW. Where along/which side of the coast it decides to hug could have a big impact on future intensity.
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Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
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Nancy Smar
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Re: SIO: Tropical Low 03U (was Invest 92S)
FKAU02 ADRM 080715
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20200108/0600Z
TCAC: DARWIN
TC: DEVELOPING TROPICAL LOW
ADVISORY NR: 2020/1
OBS PSN: 08/0600Z S1118 E13518
CB: WI 60NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL600
MOV: W 08KT
C: 1000HPA
MAX WIND: 35KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 08/1200 S1130 E13506
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 40KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 08/1800 S1130 E13448
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 45KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 09/0000 S1130 E13424
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 50KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 09/0600 S1136 E13354
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 55KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20200108/1330Z
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20200108/0600Z
TCAC: DARWIN
TC: DEVELOPING TROPICAL LOW
ADVISORY NR: 2020/1
OBS PSN: 08/0600Z S1118 E13518
CB: WI 60NM OF TC CENTRE TOP FL600
MOV: W 08KT
C: 1000HPA
MAX WIND: 35KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 08/1200 S1130 E13506
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 40KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 08/1800 S1130 E13448
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 45KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 09/0000 S1130 E13424
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 50KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 09/0600 S1136 E13354
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 55KT
RMK: NIL
NXT MSG: 20200108/1330Z
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Re: SIO: Tropical Low 03U (was Invest 92S)
The GFS has changed its prediction to a Blake-like track and intensity for 92S. The Euro and NAVGEM, however, still show it staying well enough off the coast to intensify into a <970 mbar system.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: SIO: Tropical Low 03U (was Invest 92S)
Upgraded to a 35 kt TC. It will be moving through a region of high OHC/SSTs within the next 48-60 hours, and could have the opportunity to intensify quite significantly.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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Hypercane_Kyle
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Re: SIO: Claudia - Tropical Cyclone
Up to 60 knots.
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My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.
Re: SIO: Claudia - Tropical Cyclone
The data from a 2155 UTC SMAP pass just arrived and shows a maximum 10-minute sustained wind of 71 kt. This is in perfect agreement with BoM's current intensity estimate of 70 kt.
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alan1961
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Re: SIO: Claudia - Tropical Cyclone
I think that track is staying far enough away from the coast to cause any bother
execpt for coastal swells for surfers.
execpt for coastal swells for surfers.
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Astromanía
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Re: SIO: Claudia - Tropical Cyclone
alan1961 wrote:I think that track is staying far enough away from the coast to cause any bother
execpt for coastal swells for surfers.
https://img.techpowerup.org/200113/screenhunter-01-jan-13-17-45.gif
Plus, doesn't it mean that it could be stronger than forecasted?
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alan1961
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Re: SIO: Claudia - Tropical Cyclone
Yes apparently the actual intensity did bump up to a cat 2 after the last forecast point.
As we all know from watching storms, conditions, intensity and track are hard to nail
down and discrepancies in all of that are inevitable in the forecast.
As we all know from watching storms, conditions, intensity and track are hard to nail
down and discrepancies in all of that are inevitable in the forecast.
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