ATL: FAY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 98, 2020070518, , BEST, 0, 288N, 881W, 25, 1013, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 90, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 015, SPAWNINVEST, al762020 to al982020,

[robbielyn]

Possibly headed towards TD#6 and it's only July 5th. Let's brush up on the Greek alphabet lol. Alpha beta......

[Aric Dunn]

we have a couple of curved feeder bands that have now developed and a small CDO has become circular.

[tropicwatch]

Is looking pretty good.

[EquusStorm]

Long distance radar from Mobile shows a very significant little circulation due south of Mobile/Pensacola, though the beam height there is extremely high. Might have a little surprise as that nears landfall. What an interesting July this is shaping up to be...

[northjaxpro]

Is looking pretty good.

98L is following in TD 5 footsteps quite well.. These small vorts are very interesting, yet very challenging to analyze and forecast.

[Nimbus]

Should become a named storm before landfall if they sample that tiny circulation.
The surface winds at Pilot's Station East, SW Pass, LA have swung around from the WNW to the NNW but still not out of the NE?

[Aric Dunn]

Should become a named storm before landfall if they sample that tiny circulation.
The surface winds at Pilot's Station East, SW Pass, LA have swung around from the WNW to the NNW but still not out of the NE?

pressure and wind field are quite small.

we need a reliable station within probably no more than 50 miles.

the larger low over alabama is creating most of the winds you see along the coast right now.

But yeah it is certainly closed and will likely become a TS..

who will be first TD05 or this...

TD5 should still as it accelerates.

[cycloneye]

Location: 28.8°N 88.1°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1013 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1014 mb
Radius of Circulation: 90 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 50 NM

[aspen]

If this successfully develops, maybe TD6/Edouard will be this year’s Marco? It’ll probably stay tiny until after making landfall. Maybe it could redevelop off of the east coast and become that system the GFS and Euro are sometimes showing.

I’m intrigued to see how such a tiny system, if it develops, will do in the very warm waters of the eastern Gulf. Perhaps we could see this guy over perform.

[kevin mathis]

Where does it appear to be headed? Perhaps into the "Big Bend" area?

[Aric Dunn]

Starting to wrap up.

low level curved inflow is quite clear now on the north side.

this is closed..

[Aric Dunn]

Where does it appear to be headed? Perhaps into the "Big Bend" area?

big bend is pretty extreme. probably more like the panama to Pensacola area.

[tropicwatch]

Where does it appear to be headed? Perhaps into the "Big Bend" area?

big bend is pretty extreme. probably more like the panama to Pensacola area.

Great, several of my neighbors still have blue tarps on their roofs from Hurricane Michael. Means more roofing nails in my yard and driveway.

[kevin mathis]

Starting to wrap up.

low level curved inflow is quite clear now on the north side.

this is closed..

https://i.ibb.co/6WQJJST/CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-local-New-Orleans-dcphase-18-46-Z-20200705-map-plot-34-1n-5-150.gif

Yes, It certainly has the look as being closed. Additional thunderstorms re-firing near what appears as the center as well.

[Aric Dunn]

Where does it appear to be headed? Perhaps into the "Big Bend" area?

big bend is pretty extreme. probably more like the panama to Pensacola area.

Great, several of my neighbors still have blue tarps on their roofs from Hurricane Michael. Means more roofing nails in my yard and driveway.

not likley going to be anymore than a minimal TS.

it could still roate more northerly and come into mobile.

the low over alabama is tugging on it along with the low over GA.

so we shall see.

[Aric Dunn]

one good burst of convection over the center and that would solidify any doubt.

[hipshot]

Starting to wrap up.

low level curved inflow is quite clear now on the north side.

this is closed..

https://i.ibb.co/6WQJJST/CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-local-New-Orleans-dcphase-18-46-Z-20200705-map-plot-34-1n-5-150.gif

Yes, It certainly has the look as being closed. Additional thunderstorms re-firing near what appears as the center as well.

I am not a weather guy, is the invest near the bottom right of the video in this post?

[kevin mathis]

Starting to wrap up.

low level curved inflow is quite clear now on the north side.

this is closed..

https://i.ibb.co/6WQJJST/CODNEXLAB-GOES-East-local-New-Orleans-dcphase-18-46-Z-20200705-map-plot-34-1n-5-150.gif

Yes, It certainly has the look as being closed. Additional thunderstorms re-firing near what appears as the center as well.

I am not a weather guy, is the invest near the bottom right of the video in this post?

Correct!

[aspen]

98L is in a pretty decent environment, with rather high SSTs (28-29 C) and moderate wind shear (15-20 kt) that is neither increasing nor decreasing. These tiny systems are quite finicky, so it can do anything from just dying out of nowhere, to making a run for hurricane status like Beryl ‘18.