ATL: BETA - Advisories

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty-Two Special Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020
600 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...EXPECTED TO MOVE SLOWLY OVER THE WESTERN GULF INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...


SUMMARY OF 600 PM CDT...2300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 94.3W
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 330 MI...535 KM SE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Interests along the western Gulf of Mexico coast should monitor the
progress of the depression.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 600 PM CDT (2300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Twenty-Two was located near latitude 21.9 North, longitude 94.3
West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 5 mph (7
km/h), and it is expected to generally meander over the western
Gulf of Mexico into the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Some strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and
the depression could become a tropical storm on Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Tropical Depression Twenty-Two Special Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020
600 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that the low pressure area over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico has
developed a sufficiently well-defined circulation, with SFMR wind
data suggesting an intensity of about 30 kt. In addition, the
associated convection is organized enough for SAB and TAFB to
provide Dvorak satellite intensity estimates of 30 kt. Based on
this information, advisories are being initiated on Tropical
Depression Twenty-Two.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 035/4. During the
next 48 h or so, the cyclone should be steered slowly
north-northeastward by a mid- to upper-level trough over Texas and
northern Mexico. After that time, the global models are in good
agreement that this trough will weaken and lift out to the
northeast, with a weak mid-level ridge building to the north of the
cyclone. This should result in a gradual turn toward the west at a
continued slow forward speed. Although the cyclone is relatively
close to land, the vast majority of the track guidance keeps the
system offshore for the next five days. The official forecast will
follow this scenario, with the forecast track being between the HCCA
corrected consensus and the other consensus models.

The large-scale models suggest that the cyclone will be in an
environment of light to moderate vertical wind shear for the next
several days. Some dry air entrainment may occur after 48 h.
The bulk of the intensity guidance keeps the system below hurricane
strength during the forecast period. The official intensity
forecast follows the trend of the guidance and shows the system
peaking as a tropical storm, but it lies a little above the
intensity consensus.

As mentioned above, the cyclone is likely to stay offshore during
the forecast period. Therefore, it is too early to tell which parts
of the coast of the Gulf of Mexico will get wind, storm surge, and
rain impacts from this system


Key Messages:

1. The system is expected to strengthen to a tropical storm while
moving slowly over the western Gulf of Mexico during the next few
days.

2. While it is too early to determine what areas could see direct
wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts from this system, interests
throughout the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of
this system and future updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 17/2300Z 21.9N 94.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 22.7N 94.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 23.8N 93.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 24.8N 93.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 25.4N 92.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 20/0600Z 25.8N 93.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 26.1N 93.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 26.1N 95.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
120H 22/1800Z 25.6N 96.1W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg/Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty-Two Advisory Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020
1000 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020

...DEPRESSION EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN WHILE IT MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHWARD OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.0N 94.2W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM E OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 330 MI...530 KM SE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 35 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Interests along the western Gulf of Mexico coast should monitor the
progress of the depression.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Twenty-Two was located near latitude 22.0 North, longitude 94.2
West. The depression is moving toward the northeast near 3 mph (6
km/h). A slow north-northeastward motion is expected through early
Saturday, with a slow turn toward the north and then west
anticipated over the weekend.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Friday. The
system could be near or at hurricane strength by Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells are expected to increase and reach the coast of Texas
and the Gulf coast of Mexico over the weekend, generated by a
combination of the depression and a cold front entering the
northern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg


Tropical Depression Twenty-Two Discussion Number 2
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020
1000 PM CDT Thu Sep 17 2020

Inspection of flight-level wind data from the earlier Air Force
Reserve mission indicates that the depression has a somewhat
elongated circulation, but a sufficiently well-defined center and
pressure minimum were found just to the west of NOAA buoy 42055.
The plane measured maximum surface winds of 30 kt in the deep
convection to the southwest of the center using the SFMR instrument,
and that remains the initial intensity.

As best as I can tell, the depression is moving very slowly
northeastward with an initial motion of 035/3 kt. A positively
tilted mid- to upper-level trough extends across Texas and northern
Mexico, and this feature should cause the depression to move toward
the north-northeast during the next 36 hours. The trough is
expected to dissolve soon after that time, with a mid-tropospheric
high building over the south-central United States. The high should
force the cyclone to turn and move very slowly westward on days 3
and 4, and then potentially stall or meander off the lower Texas/
northeastern Mexico coast by day 5. There is lower-than-normal
confidence in the official track forecast due to fairly significant
spread among the track guidance. However, the models do agree on
the general scenario, and they all suggest that the depression is
unlikely to move a whole lot for the entire forecast period. This
new NHC forecast lies very close to the TVCN multi-model consensus.

Unfortunately, there is also significant uncertainty in the
intensity forecast. Light-to-moderate southerly to southwesterly
shear is expected to affect the depression for the next couple of
days while it moves over very warm waters of 30-31 degrees Celsius
and in a very moist environment. Things change quickly after 48
hours due to a cold front entering the northern Gulf, and the drier,
more stable air mass behind the front could be entrained into the
cyclone's circulation from day 3 to day 5. The GFS- and ECMWF-based
SHIPS models show the most significant strengthening, bringing the
intensity to 75-80 kt in about 3 days, while many of the other
intensity models don't even raise it to hurricane intensity. As a
compromise between these various solutions, the NHC intensity
forecast shows the cyclone just reaching the hurricane threshold in
2-3 days and then gradually weakening thereafter due to the less
favorable environment. However, it cannot be stressed enough that
this forecast is highly uncertain.


Key Messages:

1. Tropical Depression Twenty-Two is expected to strengthen to a
tropical storm, and possibly a hurricane, while moving slowly over
the western Gulf of Mexico during the next few days.

2. While it is too early to determine what areas could see direct
wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts from this system, interests
throughout the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of
this system and future updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0300Z 22.0N 94.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/1200Z 22.9N 93.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 19/0000Z 23.9N 93.3W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 19/1200Z 24.8N 92.9W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 20/0000Z 25.4N 93.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 20/1200Z 25.6N 94.0W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 21/0000Z 25.7N 94.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 22/0000Z 26.1N 95.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 23/0000Z 26.4N 96.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty-Two Advisory Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020
400 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020

...SLOW MOVING DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER
TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...22.9N 94.1W
ABOUT 245 MI...400 KM ENE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 285 MI...460 KM SE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Interests along the western Gulf of Mexico coast should monitor the
progress of the depression.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Twenty-Two was located near latitude 22.9 North, longitude 94.1
West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 6 mph
(9 km/h), and this general motion is expected through early
Saturday. A slow westward motion is forecast to begin late Saturday
that will likely continue into early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The
system could be near or at hurricane strength by Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells are expected to increase and reach the coast of Texas
and the Gulf coast of Mexico over the weekend, generated by a
combination of the depression and a cold front entering the
northern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky


Tropical Depression Twenty-Two Discussion Number 3
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020
400 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020

The depression is still not very well organized. It's surface wind
circulation appears to be elongated from southwest to northeast and
deep convection is mostly limited to the northeast quadrant of the
cyclone. Overnight ASCAT data and the latest TAFB Dvorak estimate
both support an intensity of 30 kt. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane
Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system later this
morning and should provide more information about the structure of
the cyclone.

Confidence in the details of the track forecast remain low at this
time. Due to the slow forward speed of the cyclone expected into
next week, small fluctuations in the depression's heading or speed
could have very large implications on any hazards experienced along
the Mexico or Texas coasts. It is critical that users not focus on
the exact forecast track, especially at days 4 and 5 when the
average NHC forecast error is about 175 and 200 miles, respectively.
My long-term motion estimate is 025/5 kt, but in reality the
depression's movement has been unsteady since it formed yesterday.
There is still good general agreement that the system will move
slowly north-northeastward for about 36 h, and then turn westward as
a ridge builds over the southeast United States. The cyclone will
then likely inch closer to the northern Mexico or southern Texas
coasts. The details of this evolution vary greatly from model to
model and the track guidance spread is higher than usual. The most
certain aspect of the forecast is that the depression will not be
moving anywhere very quickly well into next week.

Although the depression is located within an environment supportive
of intensification, only slow strengthening is likely until it gets
better organized. Beyond 72 h, the cyclone will begin to interact
with a cold front and the drier, more stable air behind it. This
should at the very least end any intensification and could lead to
weakening. Interaction with land could also cause the system to
weaken. The latest statistical intensity guidance is less
aggressive, but those models still show the system becoming a
hurricane within a couple of days, while the dynamical hurricane
models (HWRF, HMON, COAMPS-TC) do not strengthen it quite that much.
For now the NHC intensity forecast is largely unchanged and is at
the top end of the guidance envelope.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical Depression Twenty-Two is expected to strengthen to a
tropical storm, and possibly a hurricane, while moving slowly over
the western Gulf of Mexico during the next few days.

2. While it is too early to determine what areas could see direct
wind, storm surge, and rainfall impacts from this system, interests
throughout the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of
this system and future updates to the forecast.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/0900Z 22.9N 94.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 18/1800Z 23.7N 93.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 19/0600Z 24.9N 93.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 19/1800Z 25.7N 93.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 20/0600Z 25.9N 93.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 20/1800Z 26.0N 94.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 21/0600Z 26.3N 95.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 22/0600Z 26.7N 96.3W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 23/0600Z 27.5N 96.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Zelinsky

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Twenty-Two Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020
1000 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020

...SLOW-MOVING DEPRESSION CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...23.8N 93.9W
ABOUT 275 MI...445 KM ENE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 255 MI...405 KM SE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Interests along the western Gulf of Mexico coast should monitor the
progress of the depression.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression
Twenty-Two was located near latitude 23.8 North, longitude 93.9
West. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast near 7 mph
(11 km/h), and this general motion is expected through early
Saturday. A slow westward motion is forecast to begin late Saturday
or Saturday night, and this motion will likely continue into early
next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph (55 km/h) with higher gusts.
Strengthening is forecast during the next few days, and the
depression is expected to become a tropical storm later today. The
system could be near or at hurricane strength by Sunday.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells are expected to increase and reach the coast of Texas
and the Gulf Coast of Mexico over the weekend, generated by a
combination of the depression and a cold front entering the
northern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause
life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult
products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Tropical Depression Twenty-Two Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020
1000 AM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020

Satellite imagery indicates that Tropical Depression Twenty-Two is
getting better organized, with gradually increasing convective
banding in the northeastern semicircle. Satellite intensity
estimates include 35 kt from TAFB, 30 kt from SAB, and 35 kt from
CIMSS satellite consensus, which means the depression is close to
tropical-storm strength. Given the lack of organization seen in
earlier scatterometer data, the intensity will be held at 30 kt
pending the data from the next set of scatterometer overpasses. It
should be noted that the Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter
aircraft that was scheduled to investigate the depression had to
turn back after getting hit by lightning.

The initial motion is a somewhat uncertain 015/6. For the next
24 h or so, the cyclone should move north-northeastward as it is
steered by a mid- to upper-level trough over Texas and northeastern
Mexico. This trough is then expected to lift out to the northeast,
with low- to mid-level ridging building to the north of the
cyclone. This should cause a westward turn at a continued slow
forward speed. Near the end of the forecast period, a mid-latitude
trough over the central United States should cause the ridge to
weaken and steer the cyclone northward to northeastward near the
Texas coast. While the guidance agrees with this general sense of
the motion, there are a lot of differences in the models on the
when's and where's of the various turns. Therefore, it is critical
that users not focus on the exact forecast track, especially at days
4 and 5 when the average NHC forecast error is about 175 and 200
miles, respectively.

The depression is currently in an environment of light to moderate
southwesterly shear, and the global models suggest that this will
generally continue through the forecast period. This, combined
with forecast dry air entrainment near the 72 h point, has resulted
in the intensity guidance keeping the system near to below
hurricane strength through the forecast period. The new intensity
forecast is changed little from the previous one and calls for
the cyclone to be at hurricane strength at 60 and 72 h. However,
this part of the forecast lies at the upper edge of the intensity
guidance envelope.

Key Messages:

1. Tropical Depression Twenty-Two is expected to strengthen to a
tropical storm, and possibly a hurricane, while moving slowly over
the western Gulf of Mexico during the next few days.

2. There is an increasing risk of heavy rainfall and flooding along
the Texas coast from Sunday through at least the middle of next
week as the system is forecast to move slowly near the Texas coast.
For additional information, see products from your local National
Weather Service office.

3. While it is too early to determine what areas could see direct
wind and storm surge impacts from this system, interests throughout
the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this
system and future updates to the forecast.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/1500Z 23.8N 93.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 19/0000Z 24.8N 93.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 19/1200Z 25.9N 93.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 20/0000Z 26.3N 93.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 20/1200Z 26.5N 94.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 21/0000Z 26.6N 95.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 21/1200Z 26.9N 96.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 22/1200Z 27.5N 96.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 23/1200Z 28.5N 95.5W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beta Advisory Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020
400 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020

...DEPRESSION IN THE GULF OF MEXICO BECOMES TROPICAL STORM BETA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.3N 93.1W
ABOUT 335 MI...545 KM ENE OF TAMPICO MEXICO
ABOUT 280 MI...450 KM ESE OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
Interests along the western Gulf of Mexico coast should monitor the
progress of Beta. Storm Surge and Tropical Storm or Hurricane
Watches will likely be required for portions of the western Gulf
coast tonight or on Saturday.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was
located near latitude 24.3 North, longitude 93.1 West. Beta is
moving toward the north-northeast near 9 mph (15 km/h), and this
general motion is expected through Saturday. A slow westward
motion is forecast to begin late Saturday or Saturday night, and
this motion will likely continue into early next week. On the
forecast track, the center of Beta will approach western coast of
the Gulf of Mexico Sunday night and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 40 mph (65 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional slow strengthening is expected
through the weekend, and Beta could be near hurricane strength
Sunday or Sunday night.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles (165 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb (29.65 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF: Swells are expected to increase and reach the coast of Texas
and the Gulf Coast of Mexico over the weekend, generated by a
combination of Beta and a cold front entering the northern Gulf of
Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number 5
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020
400 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020

Satellite imagery indicates that the circulation of Tropical
Depression 22 has become better defined, and most objective and
subjective satellite intensity estimates are now 35 kt. Based on
this, along with 33 kt 1-mi average winds from NOAA buoy 42002, the
depression is upgraded to Tropical Storm Beta with an initial
intensity of 35 kt. Although the system is now a tropical storm,
satellite imagery shows that the convective pattern is becoming
elongated due to the effects of southwesterly vertical wind shear.

Visible imagery and scatterometer data showed that the center of
Beta was a bit farther east than previously thought, and the initial
motion is a somewhat uncertain 025/8. This motion should continue
for the next 12-24 h as the storm is steered by a mid- to
upper-level trough over Texas and northeastern Mexico. After that
time, the trough should weaken and lift out to the northeast, with a
mid-level ridge building to the north of the cyclone above an
already present low-level ridge. This ridge should act as a Beta
blocker, causing the storm to turn westward toward the western Gulf
coast. Between 72-120 h, the mid-level ridge weakens as another
mid-latitude trough moves through the central United States, and
this is expected to cause the storm to slowly recurve toward the
northeast. One change in the track guidance since the previous
forecast is that the GFS and ECMWF are a bit faster on the westward
motion and show the center near the Texas coast in about 72 h. The
latter part of the new track forecast also shifts westward, but it
is still to the east of the GFS/ECMWF. There is also a chance that
Beta could move more northward than forecast before the trough lifts
out, which adds an additional touch of uncertainty to the track
forecast. So, it is critical that users not focus on the exact
forecast track, especially at days 3 to 5.

The global models suggest that the current shear may decrease a
little after 24 h when the upper-level trough moves away from Beta.
However, there is a chance of at least some dry air entrainment
that would hamper strengthening. The intensity guidance for the
most part continues to forecast Beta to reach a peak intensity
below hurricane strength, although the latest SHIPS model forecasts
a peak intensity near 65 kt. The new intensity forecast is again
unchanged in making Beta a hurricane at 60 and 72 h, and it lies at
the upper edge of the intensity guidance.

Key Messages:

1. Beta is expected to strengthen and possibly become a hurricane,
while moving slowly over the western Gulf of Mexico during the next
few days.

2. There is an increasing risk of heavy rainfall and flooding along
the northwest Gulf Coast Sunday through at least the middle of next
week as Beta is forecast to move slowly toward and along or offshore
of the coast through that time. For additional information, see
products from your local National Weather Service office.

3. While it is too early to determine what areas could see direct
wind and storm surge impacts from Beta, interests throughout
the western Gulf of Mexico should monitor the progress of this
system and future updates to the forecast. Storm Surge and
Tropical Storm or Hurricane watches could be issued tonight or
Saturday.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 18/2100Z 24.3N 93.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 19/0600Z 25.1N 92.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 19/1800Z 25.9N 93.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 20/0600Z 26.1N 93.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 20/1800Z 26.3N 94.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 21/0600Z 26.5N 95.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 21/1800Z 26.8N 96.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 22/1800Z 27.5N 96.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 23/1800Z 28.5N 96.0W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beta Advisory Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020
1000 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020

...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS FIND BETA STRONGER...
...STORM SURGE AND HURRICANE WATCHES ISSUED FOR A PORTION OF THE
TEXAS COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.5N 92.3W
ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 315 MI...510 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from Port Mansfield, TX to High
Island, TX including Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi Bay, Copano Bay,
Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston Bay.

A Hurricane Watch has been issued from Port Aransas, TX to High
Island, TX.

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from south of Port Aransas
to the Mouth of the Rio Grande and east of High Island to Morgan
City LA.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield, TX to High Island, TX including Baffin Bay, Corpus
Christi Bay, Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda
Bay, and Galveston Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Port Aransas Texas to High Island Texas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Aransas Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
* East of High Island Texas to Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was
located near latitude 25.5 North, longitude 92.3 West. Beta is
moving toward the north-northeast near 12 mph (19 km/h). A slow
westward motion is expected to begin late Saturday, with a slow
northwestward motion forecast to begin late Sunday and continue
through late Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta
will slowly approach the Texas coast into early next week.

Data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that
maximum sustained winds have increased to near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Beta is
expected to become a hurricane on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Mansfield, TX to High Island, TX including Baffin Bay, Corpus
Christi Bay, Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda
Bay, and Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Port Mansfield, TX...1-3 ft
High Island, TX to Morgan City, LA including Sabine Lake, Calcasieu
Lake, and Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area by late Monday or Monday night, with tropical storm conditions
possible by late Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the tropical storm watch area along the upper Texas and
southwestern Louisiana coast as early as late Saturday. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area
along the south Texas coast late Sunday.

RAINFALL: There is an increasing risk of heavy rainfall and
flooding along the northwest Gulf Coast Sunday through at least the
middle of next week as Beta is forecast to move slowly toward and
along or offshore of the coast through that time. For additional
information, see products from your local National Weather Service
office.

SURF: Swells are expected to increase and reach the coast of Texas
and the Gulf Coast of Mexico over the weekend, generated by a
combination of Beta and a cold front entering the northern Gulf of
Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg



Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020
1000 PM CDT Fri Sep 18 2020

An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft investigating Beta
this evening found that the center has re-formed or been tugged
northeastward by bursts of strong convection. While flying through
that convection, the plane measured a peak flight-level wind of 57
kt at 10,000 feet before descending to 2500 feet. To the northwest
of the center, the SFMR instrument on the plane measured a solid
area of 46-48 kt, and there have been multiple ship reports in the
region of 40-45 kt. Based on all these data, Beta's initial
intensity is estimated to be 50 kt. The plane reported an
extrapolated minimum pressure of 996 mb on the last pass through
the center, which also corresponds to a typical 50-kt tropical
storm.

The aircraft fixes indicate that Beta is moving north-northeastward,
or 030/10 kt. This motion is expected to continue for the next 12
hours or so, but as mid-level ridging develops over the Southern
Plains on Saturday, Beta should begin to slow down and turn
westward. A slow motion in the direction of the Texas coast should
continue through day 3, with a shortwave trough possibly causing the
cyclone to recurve and move northeastward near or along the Texas
coast on days 4 and 5. While there remains a large amount of spread
among the track models, they all agree on this general scenario and
indicate that Beta is likely to move very slowly as it makes its
closest approach to the Texas coast. The initial position fixed by
the plane necessitated a northward shift in the NHC official
forecast compared to the previous forecast for the first 3 days, but
it comes back in line with the previous prediction on days 4 and 5.

Beta has been able to strengthen despite being affected by strong
southwesterly shear. The shear could begin to relax over the next
few days, particularly by day 2 and 3, which could allow for some
further strengthening. The SHIPS guidance remains the most
aggressive of the intensity models, and the NHC intensity forecast
leans heavily toward those solutions given Beta's recent
intensification trend (which SHIPS seemed to handle better). Beta
is forecast to steadily strengthen and become a hurricane in a
couple of days as it approaches the Texas coast. Some weakening is
forecast on days 4 and 5 due to another increase in southwesterly
shear and possible land interaction.


Key Messages:

1. There is an increasing risk of heavy rainfall and flooding along
the northwest Gulf Coast Sunday through at least the middle of next
week as Beta is forecast to move slowly toward and along or offshore
of the coast through that time. For additional information, see
products from your local National Weather Service office.

2. Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds are
possible along portions of the Texas coast early next week, with
tropical storm conditions possible by late this weekend. Storm Surge
and Hurricane watches are in effect, and residents in these areas
should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and follow
advice given by local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0300Z 25.5N 92.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 19/1200Z 26.3N 92.2W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 20/0000Z 26.8N 92.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 20/1200Z 26.8N 93.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 21/0000Z 27.0N 94.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 21/1200Z 27.4N 95.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 22/0000Z 27.8N 96.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 23/0000Z 28.4N 95.8W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 24/0000Z 29.4N 94.1W 55 KT 65 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beta Advisory Number 7...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020
400 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020

Corrected Storm Surge values in Hazards section

...BETA FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN AS IT SLOWLY APPROACHES THE TEXAS
COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.0N 92.5W
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM E OF MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE
ABOUT 300 MI...480 KM SW OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Watch has been issued from High Island, TX to Cameron,
LA, including Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield, TX to Cameron, LA including Baffin Bay, Corpus
Christi Bay, Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda
Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Port Aransas Texas to High Island Texas

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Aransas Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
* East of High Island Texas to Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was
located near latitude 26.0 North, longitude 92.5 West. Beta is
moving toward the north near 8 mph (13 km/h). A slow westward
motion is expected to begin late today, with a slow northwestward
motion forecast to begin late Sunday and continue through late
Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta will slowly
approach the Texas coast into early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is forecast, and Beta is expected to become a
hurricane on Sunday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Mansfield, TX to Cameron, LA including Baffin Bay, Corpus
Christi Bay, Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda
Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, and Calcasieu Lake...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Port Mansfield, TX...1-3 ft
Cameron, LA to Morgan City, LA including Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are possible within the hurricane watch
area by late Monday or Monday night, with tropical storm conditions
possible by late Sunday. Tropical storm conditions are possible
within the tropical storm watch area along the upper Texas and
southwestern Louisiana coast as early as tonight. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area
along the south Texas coast late Sunday.

RAINFALL: There is an increasing risk of significant rainfall and
flooding along the Texas and Louisiana coasts Sunday through at
least the middle of next week as Beta is forecast to move slowly
near the Texas coast. For additional information, see products from
your local National Weather Service office.

SURF: Swells are expected to increase and reach the coast of Texas
and the Gulf Coast of Mexico later today, generated by a
combination of Beta and a cold front entering the northern Gulf of
Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and
rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local
weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number 7
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020
400 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020

Beta has generally changed little overnight. The storm is still
quite asymmetric due to southwesterly wind shear with the low-level
center located near the southwestern edge of the main area of deep
convection. An ASCAT pass from a few hours ago showed peak winds in
the 40-45 kt range, with most of the tropical-storm-force winds on
the north side of the circulation. In addition, the latest Dvorak
classifications are 3.0/45 kt from TAFB and SAB. The initial
intensity of 50 kt, based on the earlier aircraft data, is a little
above the satellite estimates. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are
scheduled to investigate Beta again later this morning, and the data
they collect will provide a better estimate of the intensity and
structure of the storm.

Beta is moving northward, with the latest initial motion estimated
to be 360/7 kt. The shortwave trough that has been causing the
north to northeastward motion during the past day or so is moving
away and a weak mid-level ridge is expected to build to the north of
the storm soon. This change in the steering pattern should cause
Beta to turn westward and slow down later today and then move
generally westward to northwestward through the remainder of the
weekend and into early next week. This motion should take Beta
toward the Texas coast by Monday. Around the time Beta is forecast
to be near the Texas coastline, the ridge is expected to retreat as
another shortwave trough approaches, which should cause the storm to
slow down even more and gradually turn to the northeast near the
Texas coast by the middle of next week. The models are in fair
agreement, and the NHC track forecast lies close to the various
consensus aids.

As mentioned above, the tropical storm is still feeling some
effects of southwesterly wind shear, but the upper-level pattern is
expected to become more favorable for strengthening later today.
Although the shear is expected to lessen, water vapor images show a
swath of dry air approaching the storm from the west. Based on
these mixed environmental conditions, slow strengthening is
forecast during the next couple of days and Beta is forecast to
reach hurricane intensity in about 36 hours. Beyond a few days,
the models suggest that there could be another increase in
southwesterly shear, which in combination with land interaction
should cause some weakening. Of course, the rate of weakening will
depend on whether Beta is inland or offshore. The NHC intensity
forecast is largely an update of the previous one and lies at the
high end of the model guidance.

Key Messages:

1. There is an increasing risk of heavy rainfall and flooding along
the northwest Gulf Coast Sunday through at least the middle of next
week as Beta is forecast to move slowly toward and along or offshore
of the coast through that time. For additional information, see
products from your local National Weather Service office.

2. Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds are
possible along portions of the Texas coast early next week, with
tropical storm conditions possible by late this weekend. Storm Surge
and Hurricane watches are in effect, and residents in these areas
should ensure they have their hurricane plan in place and follow
advice given by local officials.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/0900Z 26.0N 92.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 19/1800Z 26.6N 92.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
24H 20/0600Z 26.9N 93.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
36H 20/1800Z 27.1N 94.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 21/0600Z 27.4N 95.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
60H 21/1800Z 27.7N 95.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
72H 22/0600Z 28.1N 96.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
96H 23/0600Z 28.7N 95.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 24/0600Z 29.7N 93.3W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beta Advisory Number 8...Corrected
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020
1000 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020

Corrected Storm Surge amounts

...BETA STARTING ITS WESTWARD TURN...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS AND
LOUISIANA COASTS...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 92.6W
ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM S OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 315 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Tropical Storm Warning is now in effect from Port Aransas, Texas
to Intracoastal City, Louisiana.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield, TX to Cameron, LA including Baffin Bay, Corpus
Christi Bay, Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda
Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake and Calcasieu Lake

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Port Aransas Texas to High Island Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Aransas Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
* East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning may be required for portions of the Texas coast
later today or tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was
located near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 92.6 West. Beta is
moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slow westward
motion is expected to begin later today, with a slow northwestward
motion forecast to begin late Sunday or Sunday night and continue
through late Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta
will slowly approach the Texas coast into early next week.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is expected today. After that, slow
strengthening is forecast, and Beta is expected to be at or near
hurricane strength Sunday night or Monday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Mansfield, TX to Cameron, LA including Baffin Bay, Corpus
Christi Bay, Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda
Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, and Calcasieu Lake...2-4 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Port Mansfield, TX...1-3 ft
Cameron, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft
Lake Maurepas, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Borgne...1-3 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
Warning area by late Sunday or Sunday night. Hurricane conditions
are possible within the hurricane watch area by late Monday or
Monday night. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
tropical storm watch area along the southwestern Louisiana coast as
early as tonight. Tropical storm conditions are possible within
the tropical storm watch area along the south Texas coast Sunday
night

RAINFALL: Beta has the potential to produce a long-lived rainfall
event along the western Gulf Coast. Today through Tuesday, Beta is
expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 3 to 5 inches with
isolated totals of 10 inches beginning Saturday across southern
Louisiana and spreading into coastal Texas on Sunday. Flash and
urban flooding is likely as well as minor river flooding. Additional
heavy rainfall amounts across the western Gulf Coast are possible
through late week as Beta is expected to move slowly near the Texas
coast.

SURF: Swells are expected to increase and reach the coast of Texas
and the Gulf Coast of Mexico later today, generated by a combination
of Beta and a cold front entering the northern Gulf of Mexico.
These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip
current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather
office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven


Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020
1000 AM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020

Morning visible imagery indicates that Beta has become significantly
sheared, with the low-level center mostly exposed well to the
southwest of the main convective area. A new convective band is
currently forming near the center over the northwestern quadrant.
An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft reported pressures
near 994-995 mb, along with flight-level and SFMR winds that justify
keeping the initial intensity at 50 kt.

The storm appears to be starting its westward turn, and the initial
motion is now 315/3. The mid- to upper-level trough over the
northwestern Gulf of Mexico is lifting out, with a mid-level ridge
building to the north of Beta. This should cause the storm to turn
more westward during the next 6-12 h. After that, a slow west-
northwestward to northwestward motion should develop, with the
center now forecast to be near or over the middle Texas coast in
about 72 h. Beyond 72 h, another mid-latitude trough moving
through the central United States should cause Beta to recurve
slowly to the northeast. The new NHC forecast is shifted a little
to the west and now explicitly shows landfall on the Texas coast in
about 72 h. This new forecast is a little to the north of the
consensus models through 72 h and close to them after that time.

There are lots of uncertainties in the intensity forecast. First,
the global models suggest that the ongoing southwesterly shear may
not subside that much even though the first trough is lifting out.
Second, GOES-16 air mass imagery shows abundant upper-level dry air
over the western Gulf of Mexico, including near the storm center.
Third, surface observations show a drier low-level airmass in place
over southeastern Texas, and some of this may get entrained into the
storm. The intensity guidance has trended downward to the point
where none of the models are currently forecasting Beta to become a
hurricane. Based on this and the current storm structure, the
intensity forecast has been adjusted to show little change in
strength today, followed by slow strengthening to a hurricane by
48-60 h. However, this forecast is well above the guidance, and
additional downward adjustments may be needed later today.

A Tropical Storm Warning is being issued for parts of the Texas and
Louisiana coasts at this time. A Hurricane Warning could still be
issued later today or tonight depending on later intensity
forecasts.

Key Messages:

1. The expected slow motion of Beta has the potential to produce a
long duration rainfall event along the western Gulf Coast. The
potentially prolonged period of rainfall could cause flash, urban,
and river flooding, especially where tide levels are above normal.

2. Life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds are
possible along portions of the northwestern Gulf Coast, with
tropical storm conditions expected by late this weekend. Storm Surge
and Hurricane watches and Tropical Storm warnings are in effect, and
residents in these areas should ensure they have their hurricane
plan in place and follow advice given by local officials.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/1500Z 26.6N 92.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 26.9N 93.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 27.1N 93.8W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 27.5N 94.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 27.8N 95.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
60H 22/0000Z 28.2N 96.2W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 28.6N 96.2W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
96H 23/1200Z 29.5N 95.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
120H 24/1200Z 30.5N 93.0W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beta Advisory Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020
400 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020

...BETA NOW STATIONARY OVER THE NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO...
...STORM SURGE WARNING ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 92.4W
ABOUT 320 MI...510 KM ESE OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
ABOUT 245 MI...395 KM SSE OF LAKE CHARLES LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

A Storm Surge Warning is now in effect for Port Aransas, Texas to
High Island, Texas including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio
Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston Bay.

A Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued for Port Mansfield, Texas
to Baffin Bay, Texas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for
* Port Aransas, Texas to High Island, Texas including Copano Bay,
Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston Bay

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Baffin Bay, Texas to Port Aransas, Texas including Baffin Bay and
Corpus Christi Bay
* High Island, Texas to Cameron, Louisiana including Sabine Lake
and Lake Calcasieu

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Port Aransas Texas to High Island Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas Texas to Intracoastal City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Aransas Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande
* East of Intracoastal City Louisiana to Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

A Hurricane Warning may be required for portions of the Texas coast
tonight.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was
located near latitude 26.6 North, longitude 92.4 West. Beta has
been nearly stationary for the past several hours. A westward
drift is expected tonight, followed by a slow motion toward the
west-northwest that should continue through late Monday. On the
forecast track, the center of Beta will slowly approach the Texas
coast Sunday and Monday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Slow strengthening is expected during the next couple of days,
and Beta could be near hurricane strength as it approaches the
Texas coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center, mainly in the northern semicircle. A ship near
the center of Beta recently reported winds of 54 mph (87 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Baffin Bay, TX to Cameron, LA including Baffin Bay, Corpus Christi
Bay, Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, Matagorda Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine
Lake, Calcasieu Lake, San Antonio Bay...2-4 ft
Cameron, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft
Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay, TX...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in the tropical storm
warning area by Sunday night. Hurricane conditions are possible
within the hurricane watch area by late Monday or Monday night.
Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm
watch area along the southwestern Louisiana coast as early as
tonight, and are possible within the tropical storm watch area
along the south Texas coast Sunday night or Monday.

RAINFALL: Beta has the potential to produce a long duration
rainfall event along the western Gulf Coast. Today through Tuesday,
Beta is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 8 to 12
inches with isolated totals of 20 inches beginning Saturday across
southern Louisiana and spreading into coastal Texas on Sunday. Flash
and urban flooding is likely as well as minor river flooding.
Additional heavy rainfall amounts across the western Gulf Coast are
possible through late week as Beta is expected to move slowly near
the Texas coast.

SURF: Swells are increasing and reaching the coast of Texas and
the Gulf Coast of Mexico, generated by a combination of Beta and a
cold front entering the northern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Beven



Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020
400 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020

Satellite imagery indicates that Beta has a small area of
convection over the low-level center, with a dry slot on the
northeastern side separating that convection from a larger outer
band. Satellite intensity estimates are generally in the 40-55 kt
range and have changed little since the past advisory. In
addition, a ship just north of the center just reported 47-kt winds
and a pressure of 998.6 mb. Based on these data, the initial
intensity remains 50 kt. Earlier scatterometer data showed a
trough extending from near the center of Beta to just south of the
mouth of the Mississippi River, which may be a result of the
cyclone's circulation interacting with an old cold front over the
northern Gulf.

Beta has been nearly stationary since the last advisory, with the
center perhaps making a small loop. The guidance is in good
agreement that a slow westward to west-northwestward motion should
start tonight as a mid-level ridge develops north of the cyclone.
A slightly faster west-northwestward motion should then occur
through 72 h, bringing the center of Beta near or over the Texas
coast in about 60 h. After landfall, a mid-latitude trough moving
through the central United States should cause Beta to recurve
slowly to the northeast. Despite the current lack of movement, the
latest track guidance is a little faster to bring the storm to the
coast of Texas with the ECMWF forecasting landfall by 12Z Monday.
The new forecast track is a little faster than the previous
forecast, but is a little slower than the various consensus models.

There remain a lot of uncertainties in the intensity forecast.
First, the global models still suggest that the ongoing
southwesterly shear may not subside much before landfall. Second,
GOES-16 air mass imagery shows abundant upper-level dry air over the
western Gulf of Mexico, including near the storm center. Third,
surface observations show a drier low-level airmass in place over
southeastern Texas, and some of this may be getting entrained into
the storm. The intensity guidance has again trended downward, and
several of the models now forecast Beta not to strengthen at all as
it approaches Texas. Because the sea surface temperatures are warm
and the shear is not prohibitively strong, the intensity forecast,
while reduced from the earlier forecast, will show slow
strengthening to a peak intensity of 60 kt before landfall. This
forecast remains above the guidance, and additional downward
adjustments may be needed tonight or on Sunday.

While the chances that Beta will become a hurricane are decreasing,
a Hurricane Warning could still be issued for portions of the Texas
coast tonight depending on later intensity trends and forecasts.

Key Messages:

1. The expected slow motion of Beta has the potential to produce a
long duration rainfall event along the western Gulf Coast. The
potentially prolonged period of rainfall could cause flash, urban,
and river flooding, especially in coastal areas where tide levels
are above normal.

2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge near times of
high tide from Sunday through Tuesday along portions of the Texas
coast within the storm surge warning areas. Residents in these areas
should follow advice given by local officials.

3. Tropical storm force winds are expected to begin along portions
of the northwestern Gulf Coast by Sunday night within the tropical
storm warning area, with hurricane-force winds possible along
portions of the Texas coast late Monday and Monday night, where a
hurricane watch is in effect.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 19/2100Z 26.6N 92.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 20/0600Z 26.7N 93.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 20/1800Z 27.1N 94.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 21/0600Z 27.5N 95.1W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 21/1800Z 27.9N 96.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 22/0600Z 28.3N 96.4W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 22/1800Z 28.8N 96.4W 50 KT 60 MPH...INLAND
96H 23/1800Z 29.5N 95.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
120H 24/1800Z 31.0N 93.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND

$$
Forecaster Beven

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beta Advisory Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020
1000 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020

...BETA FORECAST TO BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST
ON SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.8N 92.2W
ABOUT 235 MI...375 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
ABOUT 325 MI...525 KM E OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Warning has been extended east of High Island, Texas
to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, Louisiana.

The Tropical Storm Watch east of Intracoastal City Louisiana to
Morgan City Louisiana has been upgraded to a Tropical Storm Warning.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas, Texas to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, Louisiana,
including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay,
Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, and Lake Calcasieu

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for...
* Baffin Bay, Texas to Port Aransas, Texas including Baffin Bay and
Corpus Christi Bay

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...
* Port Aransas Texas to High Island Texas

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas Texas to Morgan City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* South of Port Aransas Texas to the Mouth of the Rio Grande

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life-
threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the
coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.
For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible
within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours
before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force
winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or
dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was
located near latitude 26.8 North, longitude 92.2 West. Beta has
drifted toward the north-northeast near 2 mph (4 km/h) since
this morning. A slow motion toward the west-northwest is forecast
to begin on Sunday, followed by a slow northwest to north motion
late Monday and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta
will move toward the coast of Texas and potentially move inland
late Monday or early Tuesday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that maximum sustained winds remain near 60 mph (95 km/h) with
higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the
next couple of days before Beta reaches the Texas coast. Weakening
is anticipated once Beta moves inland Monday night or Tuesday.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km)
mainly to the north of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Baffin Bay, TX to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA including Corpus
Christi Bay, Baffin Bay, Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay,
Matagorda Bay, Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, and Calcasieu Lake...2-4
ft
Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including
Vermilion Bay...1-3 ft
Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake Maurepas...1-3 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay, TX...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are beginning in the tropical
storm warning area along the southwestern Louisiana coast and will
spread westward to the warning areas in Texas late Sunday through
early Monday. Hurricane conditions are possible within the
hurricane watch area by late Monday or Monday night. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area
along the central Louisiana coast tonight, and are possible within
the tropical storm watch area along the south Texas coast on Monday.

RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Beta is expected to produce rainfall
accumulations of 8 to 12 inches with isolated totals of 20 inches
across southern Louisiana and coastal southeast Texas, with 3 to 7
inches spreading northward into the Mid-South mid next week. Flash
and urban flooding is likely as well as minor river flooding.
Isolated moderate flooding along the middle Texas coast is possible.

SURF: Swells are increasing and reaching the coast of Texas and
the Gulf Coast of Mexico, generated by a combination of Beta and a
cold front entering the northern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number 10
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020
1000 PM CDT Sat Sep 19 2020

Beta's deep convection has been waning this evening. An Air Force
Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has found that the central
pressure rose several millibars since this morning, but the plane
also still measured surface winds around 50 kt from the SFMR
instrument. The strongest winds appear to be located near on old
frontal boundary which extends north and east of Beta's center, and
in fact sustained tropical-storm-force winds are just grazing the
coast of south-central Louisiana.

The aircraft fixes indicated that Beta drifted north-northeastward
during the day. Right now, the cyclone is embedded within weak
steering currents between two areas of high pressure centered near
the Bahamas and west Texas/southern New Mexico. The western high
pressure area is expected to slide eastward across the Southern
Plains into the southeastern U.S. through Sunday night, which should
force Beta to move slowly toward the west-northwest toward the Texas
coast. The center is now expected to reach the coast between 48-60
hours, at which point it is likely to recurve around the mid-level
high and move slowly northeastward near or inland of the upper
Texas coast on days 3 and 4. Because of Beta's drift today, the
new guidance envelope has shifted a bit northward. For this
forecast cycle, the NHC official forecast split the difference
between the previous interpolated forecast and the HFIP Corrected
Consensus guidance. This keeps the forecast to the east of the
ECMWF, HCCA, and TVCN multi-model consensus during Beta's slow
recurvature.

The air mass behind the old front appears to have won out. Beta's
circulation is embedded in a dry environment of mid-level
relative humidities around 50 percent, and the air mass could
actually become more stable as Beta moves closer to the Texas
coast. On top of that, the moderate southwesterly shear is not
expected to diminish much at all. As a result, the intensity
guidance has continued to trend downward, and the new official
forecast now flatlines Beta's intensity at 50 kt until landfall
soon after 48 hours. This forecast still lies near the top end of
the guidance envelope, closest to the SHIPS model. After 48 hours,
weakening is expected assuming Beta's center remains over land, and
it is now expected to become a remnant low over Louisiana by day 5.

While the chances that Beta will become a hurricane continue to
decrease, the Hurricane Watch for portions of the coast of Texas are
being maintained out of an abundance of caution given the
uncertainty in the forecast.


Key Messages:

1. The expected slow motion of Beta has the potential to expand a
long duration rainfall event from the Louisiana coast westward into
southeast Texas on Sunday and northward into the Mid-South by mid
next week. The potentially prolonged period of rainfall could cause
flash, urban, and river flooding, especially where tide levels are
above normal.

2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge near times of
high tide from Sunday through Tuesday along portions of the Texas
and Louisiana coasts within the storm surge warning areas.
Residents in these areas should follow advice given by local
officials.

3. Tropical storm force winds are expected to begin along portions
of the northwestern Gulf Coast overnight within the tropical storm
warning area in Louisiana and will spread westward to the Texas
coast Sunday through Monday. Hurricane-force winds are possible
along portions of the Texas coast late Monday and Monday night,
where a hurricane watch is in effect.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0300Z 26.8N 92.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 20/1200Z 27.1N 93.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 21/0000Z 27.4N 94.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 21/1200Z 27.9N 95.2W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 22/0000Z 28.4N 96.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 22/1200Z 28.9N 96.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
72H 23/0000Z 29.3N 96.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
96H 24/0000Z 30.2N 94.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 25/0000Z 31.4N 92.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beta Advisory Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020
400 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020

...BETA IS NOW MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.0N 92.7W
ABOUT 205 MI...330 KM SE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
ABOUT 295 MI...470 KM E OF CORPUS CHRISTI TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...997 MB...29.44 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Hurricane Watch from Port Aransas to High Island, Texas has been
discontinued.

The Storm Surge Watch between Baffin Bay and Port Aransas, Texas
has been discontinued.

The Tropical Storm Watch south of Port Mansfield, Texas has been
discontinued.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas, Texas to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, Louisiana,
including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay,
Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, and Lake Calcasieu

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas Texas to Morgan City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Port Mansfield to Port Aransas Texas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a
depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather
Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at
hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons
located within these areas should take all necessary actions to
protect life and property from rising water and the potential for
other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other
instructions from local officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was
located near latitude 27.0 North, longitude 92.7 West. Beta is
moving toward the west-northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h). A slightly
faster motion toward the west-northwest is forecast to occur during
the next couple of days, followed by a slow down and a turn to the
north and northeast Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Beta will move toward the coast of Texas and
will likely move inland Monday or Monday night.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast during the next couple of
days before Beta reaches the Texas coast. Weakening is anticipated
once Beta moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb (29.44 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including
Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake
Maurepas...1-3 ft
Port Aransas, TX to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA including
Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, Galveston
Bay, Sabine Lake, and Calcasieu Lake... 2-4 ft
Baffin Bay, TX to Port Aransas, TX including Corpus Christi Bay and
Baffin Bay... 1-3 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay, TX...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the tropical
storm warning area along the southwestern Louisiana coast and will
spread westward to the warning areas in Texas late today through
early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
tropical storm watch area along the south Texas coast on
Monday.

RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Beta is expected to produce rainfall
accumulations of 8 to 12 inches with isolated totals of 20 inches
from the middle Texas coast to southern Louisiana, with 4 to 8
inches spreading northward into the lower Mississippi River Valley
by mid-week. Flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as minor to
isolated moderate river flooding.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two could occur Monday near the
middle-upper Texas coast or the southwestern Louisiana coast.

SURF: Swells are increasing and reaching the coast of Texas and
the Gulf Coast of Mexico, generated by a combination of Beta and a
cold front entering the northern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi


Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number 11
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020
400 AM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020

Beta has generally changed little overnight. The storm remains
strongly sheared with deep convection confined to the north and
northeast of the low-level center. A combination of flight-level,
SFMR, and dropsonde data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters a few
hours ago supports keeping the 50-kt initial intensity. It should
be noted that the wind field is quite asymmetric with the strongest
winds located in the deep convection and farther to the northeast
behind an old frontal boundary.

Beta was caught in weak steering currents for nearly a day, but
it now seems to be moving. The current initial motion estimate is
west-northwestward at 3 kt. A mid-level ridge currently centered
over the southwestern U.S. is forecast to slide eastward, which
should cause Beta to move a little faster to the west-northwestward
later today. This motion should continue for a couple of days,
taking the storm to the Texas coast on Monday or Monday night.
After Beta moves inland, the ridge is forecast to move away as a
shortwave trough approaches from the west. This change in the
pattern is expected to cause Beta to slow down, or even stall, on
Tuesday and then turn northeastward after that. The NHC track
forecast lies near the middle of the guidance envelope, and it is
fairly similar to the previous prediction.

The tropical storm is currently in an environment of about 20 kt of
southwesterly wind shear and a fair amount of dry air, especially
on the west side of the circulation. Since the shear is not
expected to decrease much while Beta moves into an even drier and
more stable air mass, little change in intensity is expected
through landfall in 36 to 48 hours. After Beta moves inland,
steady weakening is forecast due to a combination of land
interaction, dry air, and an increase in southwesterly shear. The
models are in fair agreement, and this forecast is largely an
update of the previous one.

Key Messages:

1. The expected slow motion of Beta will produce a long duration
rainfall event from the middle Texas coast to southern Louisiana.
Flash, urban, and river flooding is likely. Rainfall will then
spread northward into the lower Mississippi River Valley by mid-week
where flash, urban, and river flooding is possible.

2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge near times of
high tide through Tuesday along portions of the Texas and Louisiana
coasts within the storm surge warning areas. Residents in these
areas should follow advice given by local officials.

3. Tropical storm force winds are occurring along portions of the
northwestern Gulf Coast within the tropical storm warning area in
Louisiana. These winds will spread westward to the Texas coast
later today and Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/0900Z 27.0N 92.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 20/1800Z 27.2N 93.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 21/0600Z 27.6N 94.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 21/1800Z 28.2N 95.6W 50 KT 60 MPH
48H 22/0600Z 28.8N 96.2W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
60H 22/1800Z 29.2N 96.2W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 23/0600Z 29.7N 95.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 24/0600Z 31.4N 92.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
120H 25/0600Z 33.8N 90.2W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beta Advisory Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020
400 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020

...BETA MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARD THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST...
...OUTER RAINBANDS SPREADING FARTHER INLAND OVER THE TEXAS COASTAL
PLAIN...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 94.0W
ABOUT 120 MI...195 KM SSE OF GALVESTON TEXAS
ABOUT 155 MI...250 KM ESE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas, Texas to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, Louisiana,
including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay,
Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, and Lake Calcasieu

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas Texas to Morgan City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Baffin Bay to Port Aransas Texas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is
a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was
located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA
Doppler weather radars near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 94.0
West. Beta is moving toward the west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h),
and this general motion is forecast to continue for the next day or
so. A decrease in forward speed and a sharp turn to the north and
northeast is expected Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Beta will continue to move toward the central
coast of Texas and will likely move inland by Monday night, and
remain close to the coast of southeastern Texas on Tuesday.

Data from the reconnaissance aircraft indicate that maximum
sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts. Little
change in strength is forecast during the next couple of days before
Beta reaches the Texas coast. Weakening is anticipated once Beta
moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

San Luis Pass, TX to Sabine Pass, TX including Galveston Bay...3-5
ft
Port Aransas, TX to San Luis Pass, TX including Copano Bay, Aransas
Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay2-4 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA including Sabine
Lake and Calcasieu Lake2-4 ft
Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including
Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake
Maurepas...1-3 ft
Baffin Bay, TX to Port Aransas, TX including Corpus Christi Bay and
Baffin Bay... 1-3 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay, TX...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the tropical
storm warning area along the southwestern Louisiana coast and will
spread westward to the warning areas in Texas tonight through early
Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the tropical
storm watch area along the south Texas coast on Monday.

RAINFALL: Through Thursday, Beta is expected to produce rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated totals of 15 inches
from the middle Texas coast to southern Louisiana. Rainfall totals
of 3 to 5 inches expected northward into the ArkLaTex region and
east into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Flash and urban flooding
is likely, as well as minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two could occur Monday near the
middle-to-upper Texas coast or the southwestern Louisiana coast.

SURF: Swells are increasing and reaching the coast of Texas and
the Gulf Coast of Mexico, generated by a combination of Beta and a
cold front entering the northern Gulf of Mexico. These swells are
likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart



Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number 13
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020
400 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020

After a short-lived intense burst of deep convection a couple of
hours ago, which helped to spin up a mid-level eye feature in radar
imagery, Beta's convection has waned somewhat and the eye feature
has become less distinct. Doppler velocity values of 60-65 kt
between 15,000-20,000 ft were noted when the vortex column looked
its best, but that spin up of the circulation also generated a
significant amount of dry air entrainment that is now evident by a
pronounced slot wrapping into the center from the north and
northeast, which has likely caused the recent decrease in the
inner-core convection. An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft
was investigating Beta during the time of the aforementioned
convective burst, and the low-level center was located about 18-20
nmi east of the radar eye feature, and the surface dropsonde
measured west winds of 39 kt beneath the calm 850-mb center. These
data indicate that vortex column possesses a significant amount of
vertical tilt, which is not suggestive of an intensifying tropical
cyclone. The aircraft found that the central pressure has remained
at around 996 mb and also measured an 850-mb flight-level maximum
wind of 60 kt, thus the initial intensity is being held at 50 kt.

After accounting for the westward jump in the low-level center due
to its recent reformation, the initial motion estimate is 295/05 kt.
There is no significant change to the previous forecast track or
reasoning. Beta is expected to remain within weak steering currents
for the next couple of days, caught between a mid-level ridge over
Florida and a weaker ridge located over the U.S. Southern Plains.
Thereafter, the ridge over Florida become the dominant steering
feature by amplifying northward and northwestward across the
southeastern U.S. by early Tuesday, nudging Beta northward by late
Tuesday, then followed by a faster northeastward motion on Wednesday
through Friday. Due to the continued southwest to westerly shear
expected to affect the cyclone, which will keep the convection and
associated best pressure falls confined to the northeastern and
eastern quadrants or near the Texas coast. As the result, the new
NHC forecast track lies near the previous advisory track, and it
located along the right side of the track guidance envelope, but not
as far right as the new GFS-ECMWF (GFEX) consensus model. which
keeps Beta over water for the next several days.

Excluding the recent weakening of the vertical wind shear, which
allowed Beta to undergo that bursting phase, the cyclone is
forecast to remain under the influence of 15-20 kt or greater
deep-layer shear throughout the forecast period, which is strong
enough to keep the cyclone from strengthening much, but not enough
to weaken or dissipate the cyclone before landfall occurs in 24
hours or so. Therefore, the intensity is expected to remain steady
at 50 kt until landfall, although 5-kt fluctuations could occur
which are in the forecast statistical noise. Slower-than-normal
weakening for an inland tropical cyclone is expected due to Beta's
proximity to the Gulf where brisk onshore flow could bring strong
squalls over the Gulf into the coast. By day 3, Beta should weaken
fairly quickly into a remnant low since the system will be located
much farther and away from the influence of the Gulf of Mexico. The
cyclone is expected to degenerate into a remnant low pressure
system by early Wednesday and dissipate inland over the lower
Mississippi Valley area by late Friday or Saturday. The intensity
model guidance remains in good agreement on this developing forecast
scenario, so no significant changes were made to the previous
intensity forecast.

Key Messages:

1. The expected slow motion of Beta will produce a long duration
rainfall event from the middle Texas coast to southern Louisiana.
Flash, urban, and river flooding is likely. Rainfall will also
spread northward into the ArkLaTex region and east into the Lower
Mississippi Valley where flash, urban, and river flooding is
possible.

2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge near times of
high tide through Tuesday along portions of the Texas and Louisiana
coasts within the storm surge warning areas. Residents in these
areas should follow advice given by local officials.

3. Tropical-storm-force winds are occurring along portions of the
northwestern Gulf Coast within the tropical storm warning area in
Louisiana. These winds will spread westward to the Texas coast
later today and Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 20/2100Z 27.7N 94.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 21/0600Z 28.1N 95.0W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 21/1800Z 28.6N 96.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 22/0600Z 29.0N 96.7W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
48H 22/1800Z 29.4N 96.4W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
60H 23/0600Z 29.7N 95.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
72H 23/1800Z 30.0N 94.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 24/1800Z 32.0N 91.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 25/1800Z 34.4N 89.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beta Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020
1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020

...BETA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE
TEXAS COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 94.5W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF GALVESTON TEXAS
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM ESE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas, Texas to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, Louisiana,
including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay,
Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, and Lake Calcasieu

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas Texas to Morgan City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Baffin Bay to Port Aransas Texas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is
a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was
located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near
latitude 27.6 North, longitude 94.5 West. Beta is moving toward the
west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is
forecast to continue for the next day or so. A decrease in forward
speed and a sharp turn to the north and northeast is expected
Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Beta will continue to move toward the central coast of Texas and
will likely move inland by Monday night, and remain close to the
coast of southeastern Texas on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast before Beta reaches the Texas
coast. Weakening is anticipated once Beta moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km)
from the center.

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from data from an
Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 995 mb (29.39
inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

San Luis Pass, TX to Sabine Pass, TX including Galveston Bay...3-5
ft
Port Aransas, TX to San Luis Pass, TX including Copano Bay, Aransas
Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay...2-4 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA including Sabine
Lake and Calcasieu Lake...2-4 ft
Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including
Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake
Maurepas...1-3 ft
Baffin Bay, TX to Port Aransas, TX including Corpus Christi Bay and
Baffin Bay... 1-3 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay, TX...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the tropical
storm warning area along the southwestern Louisiana coast and will
spread westward to the warning areas in Texas overnight through
early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
tropical storm watch area along the south Texas coast on Monday.

RAINFALL: Through Friday, Beta is expected to produce rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated totals of 15 inches
from the middle Texas coast to southern Louisiana. Rainfall totals
of 3 to 5 inches are expected northward into the ArkLaTex region and
east into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Flash and urban flooding
is likely, as well as minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two could occur Monday near the
middle-to-upper Texas coast or the southwestern Louisiana coast.

SURF: Swells generated by a combination of Beta and cold front
over the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue along the coasts of
Louisiana and Texas during the next couple of days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown


Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020
1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020

Satellite and radar imagery shows that the deep convection
associated with Beta has decreased considerably since this
afternoon. This appears to be the result of dry air entrainment
and vertical wind shear. Despite the recent decrease in convective
organization, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has
found SFMR winds of around 45 kt, and there have been a couple of
ship observations this evening of winds of 45-50 kt. Therefore, the
initial intensity of 50 kt has been maintained. Data from the most
recent center dropwindsonde indicate that the pressure is around
995 mb.

Beta is forecast to remain within an area of moderate vertical wind
shear, and that along with intrusions of dry air are likely to
prevent Beta from strengthening before it nears the Texas coast.
As a result, the NHC intensity forecast shows little change in
strength before landfall in about 24 hours. Gradual weakening
should occur after the center moves over land, but the weakening
rate may be slower-than-normal as a portion of the circulation
will remain offshore. In 2-3 days, the system is expected to weaken
to a tropical depression, and it should become a remnant low by 96 h
as it move farther inland over the lower Mississippi Valley. The
NHC intensity forecast is near the upper-end of the intensity
guidance through 24 hours, and is in best agreement with the SHIPS
statistical model.

Beta has jogged westward this evening, but the longer-term motion
estimate is 290/5 kt. There is once again no change the previous
track forecast philosophy. The tropical storm is located between a
mid-level ridge over Florida and another ridge over the Southern
Plains. Beta should move slowly west-northwestward toward the coast
of Texas during the next 12 to 24 hours. After that time, the ridge
over the Plains should weaken allowing the ridge to the east to
steer Beta northward, and then northeastward near the Upper-Texas
coast by mid-week. With the recent westward jog, the new track
forecast has been nudged slightly south of the previous track
through 24 hours, but is slightly east of the previous advisory
thereafter to be closer to the various consensus aids.


Key Messages:

1. The expected slow motion of Beta will produce a long duration
rainfall event from the middle Texas coast to southern Louisiana.
Flash, urban, and river flooding is likely. Rainfall will also
spread northward into the ArkLaTex region and east into the Lower
Mississippi Valley where flash, urban, and river flooding is
possible.

2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge near times of
high tide through Tuesday along portions of the Texas and Louisiana
coasts within the storm surge warning areas. Residents in these
areas should follow advice given by local officials.

3. Tropical-storm-force winds are occurring along portions of the
northwestern Gulf Coast within the tropical storm warning area in
Louisiana. These winds will spread westward to the Texas coast
overnight and Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 27.6N 94.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 28.0N 95.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 28.5N 96.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 28.8N 96.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 23/0000Z 29.1N 96.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 23/1200Z 29.5N 95.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 24/0000Z 30.1N 94.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 25/0000Z 31.9N 91.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beta Advisory Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020
1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020

...BETA CONTINUES TO MOVE SLOWLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE
TEXAS COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.6N 94.5W
ABOUT 120 MI...190 KM S OF GALVESTON TEXAS
ABOUT 130 MI...205 KM ESE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH...95 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas, Texas to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, Louisiana,
including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay,
Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, and Lake Calcasieu

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas Texas to Morgan City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Baffin Bay to Port Aransas Texas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is
a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was
located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft near
latitude 27.6 North, longitude 94.5 West. Beta is moving toward the
west-northwest near 6 mph (9 km/h), and this general motion is
forecast to continue for the next day or so. A decrease in forward
speed and a sharp turn to the north and northeast is expected
Monday night and Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of
Beta will continue to move toward the central coast of Texas and
will likely move inland by Monday night, and remain close to the
coast of southeastern Texas on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 60 mph (95 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast before Beta reaches the Texas
coast. Weakening is anticipated once Beta moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 195 miles (315 km)
from the center.

The latest minimum central pressure estimated from data from an
Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is 995 mb (29.39
inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

San Luis Pass, TX to Sabine Pass, TX including Galveston Bay...3-5
ft
Port Aransas, TX to San Luis Pass, TX including Copano Bay, Aransas
Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay...2-4 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA including Sabine
Lake and Calcasieu Lake...2-4 ft
Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including
Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake
Maurepas...1-3 ft
Baffin Bay, TX to Port Aransas, TX including Corpus Christi Bay and
Baffin Bay... 1-3 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay, TX...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring in the tropical
storm warning area along the southwestern Louisiana coast and will
spread westward to the warning areas in Texas overnight through
early Monday. Tropical storm conditions are possible within the
tropical storm watch area along the south Texas coast on Monday.

RAINFALL: Through Friday, Beta is expected to produce rainfall
accumulations of 6 to 12 inches with isolated totals of 15 inches
from the middle Texas coast to southern Louisiana. Rainfall totals
of 3 to 5 inches are expected northward into the ArkLaTex region and
east into the Lower Mississippi Valley. Flash and urban flooding
is likely, as well as minor to isolated moderate river flooding.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two could occur Monday near the
middle-to-upper Texas coast or the southwestern Louisiana coast.

SURF: Swells generated by a combination of Beta and cold front
over the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue along the coasts of
Louisiana and Texas during the next couple of days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown



Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number 14
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020
1000 PM CDT Sun Sep 20 2020

Satellite and radar imagery shows that the deep convection
associated with Beta has decreased considerably since this
afternoon. This appears to be the result of dry air entrainment
and vertical wind shear. Despite the recent decrease in convective
organization, an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft has
found SFMR winds of around 45 kt, and there have been a couple of
ship observations this evening of winds of 45-50 kt. Therefore, the
initial intensity of 50 kt has been maintained. Data from the most
recent center dropwindsonde indicate that the pressure is around
995 mb.

Beta is forecast to remain within an area of moderate vertical wind
shear, and that along with intrusions of dry air are likely to
prevent Beta from strengthening before it nears the Texas coast.
As a result, the NHC intensity forecast shows little change in
strength before landfall in about 24 hours. Gradual weakening
should occur after the center moves over land, but the weakening
rate may be slower-than-normal as a portion of the circulation
will remain offshore. In 2-3 days, the system is expected to weaken
to a tropical depression, and it should become a remnant low by 96 h
as it move farther inland over the lower Mississippi Valley. The
NHC intensity forecast is near the upper-end of the intensity
guidance through 24 hours, and is in best agreement with the SHIPS
statistical model.

Beta has jogged westward this evening, but the longer-term motion
estimate is 290/5 kt. There is once again no change the previous
track forecast philosophy. The tropical storm is located between a
mid-level ridge over Florida and another ridge over the Southern
Plains. Beta should move slowly west-northwestward toward the coast
of Texas during the next 12 to 24 hours. After that time, the ridge
over the Plains should weaken allowing the ridge to the east to
steer Beta northward, and then northeastward near the Upper-Texas
coast by mid-week. With the recent westward jog, the new track
forecast has been nudged slightly south of the previous track
through 24 hours, but is slightly east of the previous advisory
thereafter to be closer to the various consensus aids.


Key Messages:

1. The expected slow motion of Beta will produce a long duration
rainfall event from the middle Texas coast to southern Louisiana.
Flash, urban, and river flooding is likely. Rainfall will also
spread northward into the ArkLaTex region and east into the Lower
Mississippi Valley where flash, urban, and river flooding is
possible.

2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge near times of
high tide through Tuesday along portions of the Texas and Louisiana
coasts within the storm surge warning areas. Residents in these
areas should follow advice given by local officials.

3. Tropical-storm-force winds are occurring along portions of the
northwestern Gulf Coast within the tropical storm warning area in
Louisiana. These winds will spread westward to the Texas coast
overnight and Monday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0300Z 27.6N 94.5W 50 KT 60 MPH
12H 21/1200Z 28.0N 95.4W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 22/0000Z 28.5N 96.4W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 22/1200Z 28.8N 96.7W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 23/0000Z 29.1N 96.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 23/1200Z 29.5N 95.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 24/0000Z 30.1N 94.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
96H 25/0000Z 31.9N 91.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beta Advisory Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020
400 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020

...BETA EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS
OF THE TEXAS COAST LATER THIS MORNING...


SUMMARY OF 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.7N 95.1W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM ESE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 110 MI...180 KM S OF GALVESTON TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas, Texas to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, Louisiana,
including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay,
Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, and Lake Calcasieu

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas Texas to Morgan City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Baffin Bay to Port Aransas Texas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is
a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 AM CDT (0900 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was
located near latitude 27.7 North, longitude 95.1 West. Beta is
moving toward the west near 6 mph (9 km/h) and this general motion
is forecast to continue for the next day or so. A decrease in
forward speed and a sharp turn to the north and northeast is
expected on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the center of Beta
will continue to move toward the central coast of Texas and will
likely move inland by tonight. Beta is forecast to remain close to
the coast of southeastern Texas on Tuesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast before Beta reaches the
Texas coast. Weakening is anticipated once Beta moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center. NOAA buoy 42019, just northwest of the center of
Beta, recently reported sustained winds of 40 mph (65 km/h) and a
gust to 47 mph (76 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

San Luis Pass, TX to Sabine Pass, TX including Galveston Bay...3-5
ft
Port Aransas, TX to San Luis Pass, TX including Copano Bay, Aransas
Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay...2-4 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA including Sabine
Lake and Calcasieu Lake...2-4 ft
Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including
Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake
Maurepas...1-3 ft
Baffin Bay, TX to Port Aransas, TX including Corpus Christi Bay and
Baffin Bay... 1-3 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay, TX...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin later this
morning in portions of the tropical storm warning area. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area
later today.

RAINFALL: Through Friday, Beta is expected to produce rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with isolated totals of 15 inches
from the middle Texas coast to southeast Louisiana. Rainfall totals
of 3 to 5 inches are expected northward into the ArkLaTex region and
east into the Lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the week.
Flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as isolated minor river
flooding.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two could occur today and tonight, near the
middle to upper Texas coast or the southwestern Louisiana coast.

SURF: Swells generated by a combination of Beta and cold front
over the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue along the coasts of
Louisiana and Texas during the next couple of days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi




Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020
400 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020

Beta is struggling this morning. Satellite images show that
much of the deep convection associated with the storm has
dissipated, and data from the Air Force Hurricane Hunters indicate
that the winds have decreased. Based on a combination of
flight-level and SFMR data from the aircraft, the initial intensity
is lowered to 45 kt. This estimate is also in agreement with an
ASCAT pass from a few hours ago that showed peak winds close to 40
kt. It is also worth noting that the tropical-storm-force winds
are largely confined to the northern half of the circulation, and
these winds should spread across the Texas coast later this morning.

Beta has been moving due westward during the past several hours,
with the latest initial motion estimated to be 270/5 kt. In the
short term, Beta is expected to resume a west-northwestward motion
at a forward speed of about 5 kt, and that motion should take the
tropical storm to the Texas coast by tonight. The models differ on
how far inland Beta gets over Texas, but the majority of the
guidance shows the cyclone stalling just inland on Tuesday in weak
steering currents. The combination of an approaching shortwave
trough and an amplifying ridge over Florida should cause Beta to
turn northeastward along or near the Texas coast late Tuesday
and Wednesday, and then farther inland over Louisiana on Thursday.
The NHC track forecast is largely an update of the previous one and
remains near the various consensus aids.

The tropical storm is certainty feeling the effects of dry and
stable air that has wrapped into the circulation. The combination
of the dry air mass and 15-20 kt of southwesterly wind shear should
limit strengthening through landfall tonight. Steady weakening
is forecast after that time due to the storm interacting with land
and stronger southwesterly shear. The models are in quite good
agreement, and the NHC intensity forecast lies near the high
end of the guidance envelope.

Key Messages:

1. The expected slow motion of Beta will produce a long duration
rainfall event from the middle Texas coast to southeast Louisiana.
Flash, urban, and minor river flooding is likely. Rainfall will also
spread northward into the ArkLaTex region and east into the Lower
Mississippi Valley and portions of the Southeast through the end of
the week. Flash, urban, and isolated minor river flooding is
possible.

2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge near times of
high tide through Tuesday along portions of the Texas and Louisiana
coasts within the storm surge warning areas. Residents in these
areas should follow advice given by local officials.

3. Tropical-storm-force winds will spread westward across the Texas
coast later this morning and continue into Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/0900Z 27.7N 95.1W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 21/1800Z 28.0N 96.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 22/0600Z 28.4N 96.6W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 22/1800Z 28.7N 96.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 23/0600Z 28.9N 95.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 23/1800Z 29.4N 94.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 24/0600Z 30.2N 93.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 25/0600Z 32.8N 90.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beta Advisory Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020
1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020

...BETA MOVING A LITTLE FASTER TOWARDS THE CENTRAL TEXAS COAST...
...EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS OVER PORTIONS OF
THE TEXAS COAST LATER THIS MORNING AND AFTERNOON...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...27.9N 95.7W
ABOUT 55 MI...90 KM SE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 75 MI...120 KM SSW OF FREEPORT TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...996 MB...29.42 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas, Texas to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, Louisiana,
including Copano Bay, Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay,
Galveston Bay, Sabine Lake, and Lake Calcasieu

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas Texas to Morgan City Louisiana

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Baffin Bay to Port Aransas Texas

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is
a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, in this case within the next 36
hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was
located by an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft and NOAA
Doppler weather radars near latitude 27.9 North, longitude 95.7
West. Beta is moving toward the west-northwest near 7 mph (11
km/h), and this general motion is forecast to continue today. A
decrease in forward speed and a sharp turn to the north and
northeast are expected on Tuesday. On the forecast track, the
center of Beta will continue to move toward the central coast of
Texas today and will likely move inland by tonight. Beta is
forecast to remain close to the coast of southeastern Texas on
Tuesday and Wednesday.

Data from the aircraft and Doppler radars indicate that maximum
sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast before Beta reaches the
Texas coast. Weakening is anticipated once Beta moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center. A Texas TCOON observing site at Port O'Connor,
Texas, has recently measured a wind gust to 40 mph (65 km/h). A
NOAA buoy located just east of Galveston, Texas, has reported a
sustained wind of 39 mph (61 km/h) and a gust to 43 mph (66 km/h)
during the past couple of hours.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on data from the
reconnaissance aircraft is 996 mb (29.42 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

San Luis Pass, TX to Sabine Pass, TX including Galveston Bay...3-5
ft
Port Aransas, TX to San Luis Pass, TX including Copano Bay, Aransas
Bay, San Antonio Bay, and Matagorda Bay...2-4 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA including Sabine
Lake and Calcasieu Lake...2-4 ft
Rockefeller Wildlife Refuge, LA to Ocean Springs, MS including
Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake
Maurepas...1-3 ft
Baffin Bay, TX to Port Aransas, TX including Corpus Christi Bay and
Baffin Bay... 1-3 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay, TX...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin later this
morning in portions of the tropical storm warning area. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area
later today.

RAINFALL: Through Friday, Beta is expected to produce rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with isolated totals of 15 inches
from the middle Texas coast to southeast Louisiana. Rainfall totals
of 3 to 5 inches are expected northward into the ArkLaTex region and
east into the Lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the week.
Flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as isolated minor river
flooding.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two could occur today and tonight, near the
middle to upper Texas coast or the southwestern Louisiana coast.

SURF: Swells generated by a combination of Beta and a cold front
over the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue along the coasts of
Louisiana and Texas during the next couple of days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number 16
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020
1000 AM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020

There has been little change in Beta's overall convective structure
and intensity, with thunderstorm activity pulsing near the center
while the outer rain bands have changed little and keep rotating
onshore the central and upper Texas coastal areas. Dry air
intrusions into the inner-core region have continued to prevent
Beta from strengthening by eroding the central dense overcast
(CDO). The initial intensity of 45 kt is based on data from an Air
Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft showing peak SFMR surface
winds of 40-45 kt and maximum flight-level winds of 50 kt so far,
along with a dropsonde-measured central pressure of 996-997 mb.

Beta now appears to be moving west-northwestward at a slightly
faster forward speed, with the initial motion estimated to be 290/06
kt based on data from the aircraft and NOAA Doppler radars from
Corpus Christi and Houston, Texas. The forecast discussion is the
same old song as it was 24 hours ago with Beta expected to move just
inland over the central Texas coastal Plain in about 12-18 hours,
followed by a sharp decrease in motion, possibly resulting in Beta
stalling for a few hours as steering currents collapse. A trough to
the west combines with a broad ridge to the east located over the
Gulf of Mexico to begin nudging Beta slowly northeastward or
east-northeastward in 24-36 hours, followed by a slightly faster
forward speed on days 3 and 4, which will continue until the cyclone
dissipates over Mississippi by day 5. The new NHC track forecast is
essentially just an update of the previous advisory track, keeping
Beta just inland or near the Texas coast through 60 hours, a
scenario that is close to the various consensus models, and which
lies between the more westward-and-inland ECMWF solution and the
more eastward-and-overwater GFS track forecast.

West-southwesterly vertical wind shear of 15-20 kt is not only
expected to keep Beta's track close to the coastline, but it will
also affect the cyclone's intensity along with land interaction.
The closer the cyclone stays near the Gulf of Mexico, the more
likely that bands of convection containing tropical-storm-force
winds will continue to roll onshore the Texas coast through 36-48
hours. Given that the models over the past 24 hours have been
trending toward a track closer to the coast, the NHC official
intensity remains unchanged from the previous advisory, and lies a
little above all of the available guidance through 48 hours.

Key Messages:

1. The expected slow motion of Beta will produce a long duration
rainfall event from the middle Texas coast to southeast Louisiana.
Flash, urban, and minor river flooding is likely. Rainfall will also
spread northward into the ArkLaTex region and east into the Lower
Mississippi Valley and portions of the Southeast through the end of
the week. Flash, urban, and isolated minor river flooding is
possible.

2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge near times of
high tide through Tuesday along portions of the Texas and Louisiana
coasts within the storm surge warning areas. Residents in these
areas should follow advice given by local officials.

3. Tropical-storm-force winds will spread westward across the Texas
coast later this morning and continue into Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 27.9N 95.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 28.3N 96.5W 45 KT 50 MPH...NEAR TEXAS COAST
24H 22/1200Z 28.5N 96.7W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
36H 23/0000Z 28.8N 96.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
48H 23/1200Z 29.1N 95.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...NEAR TEXAS COAST
60H 24/0000Z 29.7N 94.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...NEAR TEXAS COAST
72H 24/1200Z 30.8N 92.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
96H 25/1200Z 33.5N 89.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beta Advisory Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020
400 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020

...SLOW-MOVING BETA GETTING CLOSER TO THE TEXAS COAST...
...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WIND GUSTS AND HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING OVER
THE CENTRAL TEXAS COASTAL AREA...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.2N 96.1W
ABOUT 25 MI...35 KM SE OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM SSW OF MATAGORDA TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Watch has been discontinued from Baffin Bay to
south of Port Aransas Texas.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas, Texas to Sabine Pass, Texas including Copano Bay,
Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston Bay.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas Texas to Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the
next 12 hours.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was
located by NOAA Doppler weather radars and surface observations near
latitude 28.2 North, longitude 96.1 West. Beta is moving toward the
northwest near 5 mph (7 km/h), and this general motion is forecast
to continue today. A decrease in forward speed and a sharp turn to
the north and northeast are expected on Tuesday. On the forecast
track, the center of Beta will continue to move toward the central
coast of Texas today and will likely move inland by tonight. Beta is
forecast to remain near or just offshore the coast of southeastern
Texas on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts.
Little change in strength is forecast before Beta reaches the Texas
coast. Weakening is anticipated once Beta moves inland.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 175 miles (280 km)
from the center. A Texas TCOON observing site at Port O'Connor,
Texas, has recently measured a wind gust to 43 mph (69 km/h).

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Aransas, TX to Sabine Pass, TX including Copano Bay, Aransas
Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Ocean Springs, MS including Sabine Lake, Lake
Calcasieu, Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake
Maurepas...1-3 ft
Baffin Bay, TX to Port Aransas, TX including Corpus Christi Bay and
Baffin Bay... 1-3 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay, TX...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to begin later this
evening in portions of the tropical storm warning area. Tropical
storm conditions are possible within the tropical storm watch area
later today.

RAINFALL: Through Friday, Beta is expected to produce rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with isolated totals of 15 inches
from the middle Texas coast to southeast Louisiana. Rainfall totals
of 3 to 5 inches are expected northward into the ArkLaTex region and
east into the Lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the week.
Flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as isolated minor river
flooding.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two could occur through Tuesday near the
middle to upper Texas coast or the southwestern Louisiana coast.

SURF: Swells generated by a combination of Beta and a cold front
over the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue along the coasts of
Louisiana and Texas during the next couple of days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 700 PM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 1000 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart

Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number 17
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020
400 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020

Beta's convective cloud structure has continued to erode since the
previous advisory as cold-air stratocumulus clouds have wrapped
around the entire and into the system center. Most of the cloud tops
are barely reaching the freezing level, with the exception of a
small convective burst that has recently developed near and to the
northwest of the low-level center. The initial intensity has been
lowered to 40 kt and is based on data from the last Air Force
Reserve reconnaissance leg that indicated peak SFMR surface winds
of 40-42 kt northwest of the center and a dropsonde-measured
central pressure of 999-1000 mb.

The initial motion estimate 310/04 kt. Beta is expected to move
onshore the central Texas coast later tonight, and then stalling
along or just inland from the coast during the 12-24 hour period
when the steering currents collapse due to a complete break down of
a weak ridge over the Gulf of Mexico. A weak trough to the west of
the cyclone is then forecast to nudge Beta east-northeastward toward
the Gulf of Mexico in the 36-60 hour period, with the cyclone
possibly reaching the warm Gulf waters by 48 hours. By 72 hours and
beyond, the approaching mid-level trough Beta is expected to move
Beta a little faster toward the northeast until the cyclone
dissipates over the Lower Mississippi Valley area by day 5. The
latest NHC track guidance has shifted a little farther to right or
east of the previous forecast track, with most of the models now
taking Beta back out over the western Gulf of Mexico by 24 hours. As
a result, the new NHC official track forecast has been nudged a
little farther to the right of the previous, but remains to the
left or west of the NOAA-HCCA consensus model and the UKMET model.

West-southwesterly wind shear of 15-20 kt is expected to affect Beta
for the next 36 hours or so, followed by a gradual increase in the
shear thereafter. That unfavorable flow regime, along with land
interaction, should induce a slow weakening trend throughout the
forecast period. The NHC intensity forecast remains a little above
the available model guidance through 48 hours since Beta is forecast
to remain very close to or over the Gulf of Mexico where convective
rain bands containing tropical-storm-force winds could possibly move
onshore the central and upper Texas coastal areas.

Key Messages:

1. The expected slow motion of Beta will produce a long duration
rainfall event from the middle Texas coast to southeast Louisiana.
Flash, urban, and minor river flooding is likely. Rainfall will also
spread northward into the ArkLaTex region and east into the Lower
Mississippi Valley and portions of the Southeast through the end of
the week. Flash, urban, and isolated minor river flooding is
possible.

2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge near times of
high tide through Tuesday along portions of the Texas and Louisiana
coasts within the storm surge warning areas. Residents in these
areas should follow advice given by local officials.

3. Tropical-storm-force winds will spread westward across the Texas
coast later this evening and continue into Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 28.2N 96.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 28.5N 96.6W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 22/1800Z 28.7N 96.5W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 23/0600Z 28.9N 95.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...NEAR TEXAS COAST
48H 23/1800Z 29.2N 94.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 24/0600Z 29.7N 93.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...OVER WATER
72H 24/1800Z 30.8N 91.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...INLAND
96H 25/1800Z 34.1N 88.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
120H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Beta Advisory Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020
1000 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020

...CENTER OF BETA NEARING THE TEXAS COAST...
...HEAVY RAINS OCCURRING OVER THE CENTRAL TEXAS COASTAL AREA...


SUMMARY OF 1000 PM CDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.4N 96.3W
ABOUT 5 MI...10 KM E OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 25 MI...35 KM SW OF MATAGORDA TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...999 MB...29.50 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas, Texas to Sabine Pass, Texas including Copano Bay,
Aransas Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston Bay.

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Port Aransas Texas to Morgan City Louisiana

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening
inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,
during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a depiction
of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm
Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. This is a
life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas
should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from
rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions.
Promptly follow evacuation and other instructions from local
officials.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are
expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area, including possible
inland watches and warnings, please monitor products issued by your
local National Weather Service forecast office.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 PM CDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was
located near latitude 28.4 North, longitude 96.3 West. Beta is
moving toward the northwest near 3 mph (6 km/h), and this general
motion is forecast to continue tonight. A slow north and northeast
motion are expected on Tuesday, and a faster east-northeastward
motion should begin Tuesday night and continue Wednesday. On the
forecast track, the center of Beta will move inland overnight.
Beta is forecast to remain near or just offshore the coast of
southeastern Texas on Tuesday and Wednesday.

Data from an Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft indicate that
the maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher
gusts. Little change in strength is forecast before Beta reaches the
Texas coast. Weakening is anticipated on Tuesday as Beta moves just
inland along the Texas coast.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 125 miles (205 km)
from the center. A WeatherFlow observing site at Matagorda Bay,
Texas, has reported sustained winds of 41 mph (67 km/h) with a gust
to 53 mph (85 km/h) this evening.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb (29.50 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the
tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by
rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could
reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated
areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Port Aransas, TX to Sabine Pass, TX including Copano Bay, Aransas
Bay, San Antonio Bay, Matagorda Bay, and Galveston Bay...2-4 ft
Sabine Pass, TX to Ocean Springs, MS including Sabine Lake, Lake
Calcasieu, Vermilion Bay, Lake Borgne, Lake Pontchartrain, and Lake
Maurepas...1-3 ft
Baffin Bay, TX to Port Aransas, TX including Corpus Christi Bay and
Baffin Bay... 1-3 ft
Mouth of the Rio Grande to Baffin Bay, TX...1-2 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast in areas of
onshore winds, where the surge will be accompanied by large and
dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative
timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over
short distances. For information specific to your area, please see
products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast
office.

WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected to continue within
portions of the tropical storm warning area through Tuesday.

RAINFALL: Through Friday, Beta is expected to produce rainfall
accumulations of 5 to 10 inches with isolated totals of 15 inches
from the middle Texas coast to southeast Louisiana. Rainfall totals
of 3 to 5 inches are expected northward into the ArkLaTex region and
east into the Lower Mississippi Valley through the end of the week.
Flash and urban flooding is likely, as well as isolated minor river
flooding.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two could occur through Tuesday near the
middle to upper Texas coast or the southwestern Louisiana coast.

SURF: Swells generated by a combination of Beta and a cold front
over the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue along the coasts of
Louisiana and Texas during the next couple of days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 100 AM CDT.
Next complete advisory at 400 AM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Brown



Tropical Storm Beta Discussion Number 18
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020
1000 PM CDT Mon Sep 21 2020

There has been a recent increase in convection along the Texas
coast just to the north of Beta's center this evening. A blend
of flight-level and SFMR winds from an Air Force Reserve
reconnaissance aircraft indicate that Beta's peak intensity
remains around 40 kt. The aircraft has reported a minimum central
pressure of around 999 mb, which is unchanged from earlier today.
West-southwesterly vertical wind shear and land interaction should
gradually weaken the cyclone over the next couple of days. The NHC
intensity forecast is a little above model guidance through 24
hours since a significant portion of the circulation is forecast
to remain over water. Strong vertical wind shear is expected
to prevent re-strengthening when Beta moves near or just offshore of
the Upper Texas coast in a couple of days.

Beta is moving northwestward or 325/3 kt. The tropical storm
should move just inland along the central Texas coast overnight, but
it is expected to become nearly stationary on Tuesday as steering
currents collapse. A weak trough over the south-central United
States should begin to steer Beta east-northeastward Tuesday night
and Wednesday, and a northeastward motion at a slightly faster
forward speed should continue until dissipation in 72-96 hours.
The latest NHC track forecast is very similar to the previous
advisory and is a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF models.

Key Messages:

1. The expected slow motion of Beta will produce a long duration
rainfall event from the middle Texas coast to southeast Louisiana.
Flash, urban, and minor river flooding is likely. Rainfall will also
spread northward into the ArkLaTex region and east into the Lower
Mississippi Valley and portions of the Southeast through the end of
the week. Flash, urban, and isolated minor river flooding is
possible.

2. There is the danger of life-threatening storm surge near times of
high tide through Tuesday along portions of the Texas and Louisiana
coasts within the storm surge warning areas. Residents in these
areas should follow advice given by local officials.

3. Tropical-storm-force winds will spread westward across the Texas
coast through Tuesday.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 28.4N 96.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 28.6N 96.3W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
24H 23/0000Z 28.8N 96.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND
36H 23/1200Z 29.1N 95.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
48H 24/0000Z 29.5N 93.8W 30 KT 35 MPH...OVER WATER
60H 24/1200Z 30.4N 92.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
72H 25/0000Z 31.7N 90.7W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Brown

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Beta Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020
1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020

...BETA WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OVER TEXAS...
...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE AND
UPPER TEXAS COAST...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 96.7W
ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM ENE OF VICTORIA TEXAS
ABOUT 30 MI...45 KM WNW OF PALACIOS TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 45 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1005 MB...29.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Tropical Storm Warning has been discontinued.

The Storm Surge Warning has been discontinued. Information on
ongoing coastal flooding can be found in coastal flood products
issued by local National Weather Service offices.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 1000 AM CDT (1500 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Beta was
located by surface observations, satellites, and NOAA Doppler
weather radars near latitude 28.9 North, longitude 96.7 West. The
depression is drifting toward the northeast near 2 mph (4 km/h). A
slow motion toward the east-northeast is expected by this afternoon
and tonight. An east-northeastward to northeastward motion with
increasing forward speed is expected Wednesday through Friday. On
the forecast track, the center of Beta will move inland over
southeastern Texas through Wednesday and then over Louisiana and
Mississippi Wednesday night through Friday.

Data from surface observations and NOAA Doppler weather radars
indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 35 mph
(55 km/h) with higher gusts. Little change in strength is expected
today with gradual weakening anticipated through Friday.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 1005 mb (29.68 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: For the middle and upper Texas coast, additional
rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with isolated storm totals up to 20
inches is expected. Significant flash and urban flooding is
occurring and will continue today. Minor to isolated moderate river
flooding is likely.

Rainfall totals of 2 to 5 inches are expected east into the Lower
Mississippi Valley through the end of the week. Flash and urban
flooding is possible, as well as isolated minor river flooding on
smaller rivers.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two could occur through Tuesday near the
middle to upper Texas coast or the southwestern Louisiana coast.

SURF: Swells generated by a combination of Beta and a cold front
over the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue along the coasts of
Louisiana and Texas during the next couple of days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 400 PM CDT.

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Tropical Depression Beta Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020
1000 AM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020

High-resolution visible satellite imagery, surface observations, and
NOAA Doppler weather radar data from San Antonio, Corpus Christi,
and Houston, Texas, indicate that Beta has moved a little farther
inland and has weakened to a tropical depression. The same data
also show that Beta has started a slow drift toward the northeast.
Deep convection has waned considerably since the previous
advisory, especially during the past few hours, with cloud tops now
warmer than -30 deg C, which no longer meets the Dvorak satellite
classification criterion. The initial intensity is 30 kt is based
on average Doppler velocities of 35-40 kt between 1500-2500 ft ASL
just to the southeast and south of Galveston.

The initial motion estimate is now 045/02 kt. Steering currents
around Beta remain weak. However, water vapor imagery indicates that
a broad mid- to upper-level trough over western Texas is moving
slowly eastward, and that feature should gradually force Beta
east-northeastward later today and tonight, followed by a faster
motion toward the northeast on Wednesday and Thursday across
Louisiana and Mississippi before dissipating in about 4 days. The
new NHC forecast track is similar to the previous advisory track,
which keeps Beta just inland from the Gulf coast, and lies near a
blend of the simple consensus models TVCA and GFEX, and the NOAA
corrected-consensus model HCCA.

Since Beta's center is forecast to remain just inland for the next
36-48 hours, chances of the cyclone regaining tropical storm status
are becoming less likely. As a result, the new official intensity
forecast shows Beta remaining a 25-30 kt depression during that
time, followed by weakening to a remnant low by 48 hours, and
dissipation over Mississippi or Alabama by 96 hours. This is
consistent with the various simple and corrected-consensus models.

Although Beta is now an inland tropical depression, the National
Hurricane Center will continue to issue advisories on the cyclone
due to its proximity to the Gulf of Mexico and until it becomes
clear that re-strengthening into a tropical storm is unlikely.

Key Messages:

1. Significant flash and urban flooding is occurring and will
continue for the middle and upper Texas coast today. The slow motion
of Beta will continue to produce a long duration rainfall event from
the middle Texas coast to southern Louisiana. Flash, urban, and
minor to isolated moderate river flooding is likely. Periods of
rainfall will spread east into the Lower Mississippi Valley and
portions of the Southeast through the end of the week. Flash, urban,
and isolated minor river flooding is possible on smaller rivers.

2. Persistent onshore flow will continue to result in above normal
high tides, and coastal flooding over the next few days will be slow
to recede. For information on the ongoing coastal flooding, please
refer to coastal flood products issued by local National Weather
Service offices.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 28.9N 96.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
12H 23/0000Z 29.0N 96.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
24H 23/1200Z 29.6N 95.1W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/0000Z 30.4N 93.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
48H 24/1200Z 31.7N 92.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 25/0000Z 33.1N 90.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 25/1200Z 34.4N 88.3W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED INLAND

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Depression Beta Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020
400 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020

...SLOW-MOVING BETA PRODUCING HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING OVER
PORTIONS OF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...
...THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER...


SUMMARY OF 400 PM CDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 96.3W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM N OF PORT OCONNOR TEXAS
ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM NNW OF MATAGORDA TEXAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...30 MPH...45 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 65 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 400 PM CDT (2100 UTC), the center of Tropical Depression Beta was
located by surface observations, satellites, and NOAA Doppler
weather radars near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 96.3 West. The
depression is moving toward the east-northeast near 5 mph (7 km/h)
and this general motion is expected to continue through Friday. On
the forecast track, the center of Beta will move inland over
southeastern Texas through Wednesday and then over Louisiana and
Mississippi Wednesday night through Friday.

Data from surface observations and NOAA Doppler weather radars
indicate that maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 30 mph
(45 km/h) with higher gusts. Gradual weakening is forecast through
Friday, and Beta is expected to become a remnant low pressure system
by late Wednesday.

The estimated minimum central pressure based on nearby surface
observations is 1008 mb (29.77 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
Key messages for Beta can be found in the Tropical Cyclone
Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT2 and WMO header WTNT42 KNHC.

RAINFALL: For the middle and upper Texas coast, additional
rainfall of 4 to 8 inches with isolated storm totals up to 20
inches is expected. Significant flash and urban flooding is
occurring and will continue today. Minor to isolated moderate river
flooding is likely.

Rainfall totals of 13 to 14 inches have been measured across
portions of the Houston metropolitan area thus far.

Rainfall totals of 2 to 5 inches are expected east into the Lower
Mississippi Valley and portions of the Tennessee Valley through the
end of the week. Flash and urban flooding is possible, as well as
isolated minor river flooding on smaller rivers.

TORNADOES: A tornado or two cannot be ruled out this evening along
the upper Texas and southwestern Louisiana coasts.

SURF: Swells generated by a combination of Beta and a cold front
over the northern Gulf of Mexico will continue along the coasts of
Louisiana and Texas during the next couple of days. These swells
are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current
conditions. Information on ongoing coastal flooding can be found in
coastal flood products issued by local National Weather Service
offices.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
This is the last NHC advisory on Beta. Future information on this
system, including the rainfall threat, can be found in Public
Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at
10 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT2, WMO header WTNT32 KWNH, and
on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

$$
Forecaster Stewart


Tropical Depression Beta Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL222020
400 PM CDT Tue Sep 22 2020

High-resolution visible satellite imagery, surface observations, and
NOAA Doppler weather radar data from San Antonio and Houston, Texas,
indicate that Beta has continued to weaken. What convection remains
is quite shallow with a few cloud tops only extending up to 25,000-
30,000 ft ASL, mainly near and northeast of the center. However,
those low-topped showers are quite prodigious rain-producers with
rainfall totals of 13-14 inches having been measured across portions
of the Houston metropolitan area thus far. The initial intensity of
25 kt is based on near-shore buoy and surface observing stations.

The initial motion estimate is now 065/04 kt. A coastal convergence
zone or trough has formed about 20-25 nmi inland from the Texas Gulf
coast and, owing to the lack of any significant deep-layer steering
flow, Beta is forecast to move slowly along that trough axis and
remain inland throughout the forecast period as a result. The ECMWF
and UKMET models move Beta rapidly northeastward after 48 hours, but
that scenario seems to be overdone given the expected shallow nature
of the cyclone. The new NHC official track forecast is similar to
the previous advisory track and lies close to a blend of the various
consensus models, except that I used the slower forward speed of the
GFS model.

Since Beta is forecast to remain inland for the next throughout the
forecast period, the cyclone is not expected to regain tropical
storm status. Beta to degenerate into a remnant low by 36 hours,
and dissipate over Mississippi or Alabama in 96 hours, if not
sooner. The new intensity forecast is similar to the previous
advisory and closely the simple and corrected-consensus models IVCN
and HCCA.

This is the last NHC advisory on Beta. Future information on this
system, including the rainfall threat, can be found in Public
Advisories issued by the Weather Prediction Center beginning at
10 PM CDT, under AWIPS header TCPAT2, WMO header WTNT32 KWNH, and
on the web at http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov

Key Messages:

1. Significant flash and urban flooding is occurring and will
continue for the middle and upper Texas coast today. The slow motion
of Beta will continue to produce a long duration rainfall event from
the middle Texas coast to southern Louisiana. Flash, urban, and
minor to isolated moderate river flooding is likely. Periods of
rainfall will spread east into the Lower Mississippi Valley,
portions of the Tennessee Valley, and the Southeast through the end
of the week. Flash, urban, and isolated minor river flooding is
possible on smaller rivers.

2. Persistent onshore flow will continue to result in above normal
high tides, and coastal flooding over the next few days will be slow
to recede. For information on the ongoing coastal flooding, please
refer to coastal flood products issued by local National Weather
Service offices.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 29.0N 96.3W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 29.3N 95.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
24H 23/1800Z 30.1N 94.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...INLAND
36H 24/0600Z 31.3N 92.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 24/1800Z 32.5N 90.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 25/0600Z 33.8N 88.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 25/1800Z 35.1N 87.3W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Stewar