WPAC: MOLAVE - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

98W.INVEST

98W.INVEST.15kts.1010mb.7.5N.139E

WWJP27 RJTD 211200
WARNING AND SUMMARY 211200.
WARNING VALID 221200.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
LOW PRESSURE AREA 1008 HPA NEAR 08N 139E WEST SLOWLY.

[Hayabusa]

[Hayabusa]

Yesterday at 12Z from HWRF run of Saudel, yes I know

[Hayabusa]

ECMWF makes it a strong tropical storm (possibly STS) before landfall, and intensifies it to a typhoon during the Southern Luzon traverse, then peaks it to 939 mb over the SCS

[euro6208]

[Hayabusa]

972 mb, but that's the end of the run could be intensifying more before landfall

[mrbagyo]

October 21, 2020 12z - ECMWF simulated IR

[dexterlabio]

Does the UKMET have something to show regarding this system?

[Hayabusa]

Does the UKMET have something to show regarding this system?

[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS has this hit central Philippines as a TD/weak TS before becoming a typhoon in the SCS.

[Ed_2001]

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):

[...]
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR
10.3N 136.9E, APPROXIMATELY 88 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF YAP. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A WEAK, CONSOLIDATING
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 221241Z MHS METOP-B 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE REVEALS POCKETS OF FRAGMENTED DEEP CONVECTION ON THE
PERIPHERIES OF THE LLC. 98W IS CURRENTLY IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD WESTWARD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, LOW (<15
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29 TO 30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 98W WILL
TRACK GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD WITH SLOW INTENSIFICATION OVER THE
NEXT 24 HOURS BEFORE BEGINNING A MORE WESTWARD TRACK TOWARD THE
PHILIPPINES. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO
20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[Hayabusa]

Models still make it at least TS landfall

[Hayabusa]

Happy hour run 972 mb landfall 2 mb lower than 12Z

[aspen]

Happy hour run 972 mb landfall 2 mb lower than 12Z

GFS has been pretty consistent with 98W. It’s looking pretty good right now, so unlike Saudel, it might get the time to intensify into a typhoon before landfall.

[galaxy401]

This could be like the 6th storm to make landfall in Vietnam? They're having flood issues and they're still getting more storms. Must be the La Nina pattern.

[Hayabusa]

98W INVEST 201022 1800 10.8N 135.9E WPAC 20 1006

Medium soon?

[Hayabusa]

From 18Z HWRF run of Saudel, also develops 99W

[Hayabusa]

WWJP27 RJTD 230000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 230000.
WARNING VALID 240000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 11N 134E WNW SLOWLY.

[ElectricStorm]

0z GFS has a 979mb landfall in central Philippines. Peaks at 967mb in the SCS before landfall in Vietnam.

[mrbagyo]

I think this will be renumbered by 06z