WPAC: VAMCO - Post-Tropical

[Hayabusa]

WTPN21 PGTW 081330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.9N 134.4E TO 13.1N 129.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 081200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.1N 134.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.2N 133.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.1N 134.2E, APPROXIMATELY 111
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP IN
FROM THE NORTH AND SOUTH. A 080952Z SSMIS F-17 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SIMILARLY REVEALS THE TIGHTENING LLCC WITH THE FRAGMENTED BANDING
FEATURES TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. A 081151Z METOP-B PARTIAL ASCAT
PASS SHOWS THE CIRCULATION TO REMAIN VERY BROAD WITH A LARGE AREA OF
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS LOCATED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. INVEST 93W IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH EXCELLENT DUAL
CHANNEL OUTFLOW, LOW (5-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
THAT 93W WILL QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
091400Z.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Looks like this will take advantage of the environment that Atsani was suppose to strengthen in but never did.

All in...

[mrbagyo]

https://i.imgur.com/aR9MvDZ.gif

WTPN21 PGTW 081330
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 93W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.9N 134.4E TO 13.1N 129.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 081200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 9.1N 134.2E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 93W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 8.2N 133.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.1N 134.2E, APPROXIMATELY 111
NM NORTH-NORTHWEST OF PALAU. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD, QUICKLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP IN
FROM THE NORTH AND SOUTH. A 080952Z SSMIS F-17 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE
SIMILARLY REVEALS THE TIGHTENING LLCC WITH THE FRAGMENTED BANDING
FEATURES TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH. A 081151Z METOP-B PARTIAL ASCAT
PASS SHOWS THE CIRCULATION TO REMAIN VERY BROAD WITH A LARGE AREA OF
20 TO 25 KNOT WINDS LOCATED IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. INVEST 93W IS
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH EXCELLENT DUAL
CHANNEL OUTFLOW, LOW (5-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30C)
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT
THAT 93W WILL QUICKLY CONSOLIDATE AND INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD IN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
091400Z.//
NNNN

[ManilaTC]

PAGASA upgrades to ULYSSES.

[mrbagyo]

[ManilaTC]

Where in RAMMB is that mrbagyo?

[Hayabusa]

Central Luzon...

[mrbagyo]

Where in RAMMB is that mrbagyo?

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/archive.asp?data_folder=himawari-8/philippines_true_color&width=1020&height=720

[euro6208]

TPPN12 PGTW 082130

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE 93W (NW OF PALAU)

B. 08/2100Z

C. 8.89N

D. 133.13E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T1.0/1.0

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. .25 WRAP ON LOG10 SPIRAL YIELDS
A 1.0 DT. MET AND PT YIELD A 1.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


BERMEA

[aspen]

The HWRF has been very consistent about this becoming a Category 4 typhoon with a large eye, comparable to Goni ‘15.

[Nancy Smar]

25W TWENTYFIVE 201109 0600 12.0N 130.9E WPAC 25 1003

[Hayabusa]

TS 2022 (Vamco)
Issued at 07:15 UTC, 9 November 2020

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 9 November>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N11°35' (11.6°)
E130°20' (130.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 1002 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 18 m/s (35 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 25 m/s (50 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 390 km (210 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 10 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°25' (14.4°)
E128°10' (128.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 994 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 105 km (57 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 11 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°55' (14.9°)
E124°40' (124.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (75 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55 m/s (105 kt)
Radius of probability circle 165 km (90 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 230 km (125 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 12 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°00' (15.0°)
E119°40' (119.7°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of probability circle 220 km (120 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 310 km (165 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 13 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°40' (14.7°)
E114°55' (114.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 970 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 310 km (170 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 410 km (220 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 14 November>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N14°50' (14.8°)
E111°00' (111.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 975 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (65 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (95 kt)
Radius of probability circle 440 km (240 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 530 km (285 NM)

[Hayabusa]

[Hayabusa]

[Hayabusa]

High end cat 3 peak, another close to capital track, and this one is more larger than Goni.

WDPN32 PGTW 090900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (VAMCO)
WARNING NR 001//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 25W (VAMCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 599 NM
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) DEPICTS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION, PRIMARILY STRETCHING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HEMISPHERE OF A BROAD AND STILL SOMEWHAT
ELONGATED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE INITIAL POSITION
IS PLACED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON ANALYSIS OF THE OUTER LOW-
LEVEL BANDS EVIDENT IN ANIMATED VISIBLE AND MSI. A PARTIAL 090514Z
AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE, SHOWS THE WELL-DEFINED OUTER LOW-LEVEL
BANDING FEATURES, ANALYSIS OF WHICH PROVIDES ADDITIONAL WEIGHT TO
THE INITIAL POSITION. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 25 KTS IS SET WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE BASED ON MULTI-AGENCY DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF T1.5 (25 KTS) FROM BOTH PGTW AND RJTD. A 090025Z ASCAT-
B AND 090114Z ASCAT-C SHOWED THE ELONGATED NATURE OF THE LLCC, WITH
20-25 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SYSTEM, WITH A POCKET OF HIGHER WINDS TO THE NORTHEAST. TD
25W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST. THE SYSTEM IS
TRACKING THROUGH AN ENVIRONMENT WHICH IS VERY FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(SST), LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), HIGH (120-140
KJ/CM^2) OHC AND A DEVELOPING UPPER-LEVEL POINT SOURCE PROVIDING
STRONG EQUATORWARD AND MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 25W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH TAU 12 AND
SLOWLY TURN ONTO A WESTWARD TRACK BY TAU 48 AS THE STR BUILDS
WESTWARD TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM, BLOCKING FURTHER POLEWARD
MOVEMENT. TD 25W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL IN CENTRAL LUZON,
ROUGHLY EAST OF MANILA, NEAR TAU 60, RAPIDLY TRACK ACROSS LUZON AND
REEMERGE INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA BY TAU 72. OVERALL THE ENVIRONMENT
IS HIGHLY CONDUCIVE TO INTENSIFICATION, WITH THE ONLY LIMITATION
BEING THE TIME NEEDED TO CONSOLIDATE INTO A BETTER DEFINED
CIRCULATION CENTER. ONCE THE SYSTEM BECOMES WELL CONSOLIDATED,
WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS, IT IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO QUICKLY
INTENSIFY TO 55 KNOTS BY TAU 24. A PERIOD OF RAPID INTENSIFICATION
IS FORECAST BETWEEN TAUS 36 AND 48 AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS OVER WATERS
WITH OHC VALUES APPROACHING 150-175 KJ/CM^2, VWS REMAINS VERY LOW
AND THE UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE BECOMES VERTICALLY STACKED OVER THE
LLCC, AND BEGINS TO TAP INTO A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL. THE
FORECAST CALLS FOR A PEAK INTENSITY OF 110 KNOTS AT TAU 48, BUT
ADDITIONAL INTENSIFICATION IS POSSIBLE PRIOR TO LANDFALL. AS THE
SYSTEM CROSSES LUZON, INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN WILL
INDUCE SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING, WITH THE SYSTEM FORECAST TO REEMERGE
INTO THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AS A MINIMAL TYPHOON. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK
GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE TURN WESTWARD, WITH
DIFFERENT SOLUTIONS ON THE TIMING AND DEGREE OF THE TURN WESTWARD,
LEADING TO A SPREAD OF 100NM AT TAU 48 WITH NAVGEM REPRESENTING THE
POLEWARD EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE AND JGSM THE EQUATORWARD. THIS TIGHT
AGREEMENT LENDS OVERALL GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THIS INITIAL PORTION OF
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK, LAID ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE
ENVELOPE THROUGH TAU 48, THEN NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS THROUGH
TAU 72. INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS MORE MIXED, WITH THE COAMP-TC SHOWING
VERY SLOW INTENSIFICATION AND A PEAK OF ONLY 55 KNOTS, WHILE HWRF
SHOWS A PEAK OF 115 KNOTS AND THE REMAINDER OF THE GUIDANCE PACKAGE
BEING CLOSER TO THE 85-90 KNOT RANGE. BASED ON THE ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS, THE JTWC FORECAST IS WELL ABOVE THE CONSENSUS, AND CLOSELY
TRACKS THE HWRF SOLUTION.
C. AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD
THROUGH TAU 120 UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE DEEP-LAYER STR
TO THE NORTH. AFTER REEMERGING OVER THE OPEN WATERS OF THE SOUTH
CHINA SEA, THE SYSTEM WILL REINTENSIFY TO A PEAK OF 70 KNOTS UNDER
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH CROSS-TRACK SPREAD INCREASING TO
215 NM AT TAU 120, WITH THE MAJORITY OF MODELS SUPPORTING THE
WESTWARD TRACK, WHILE A GROUP CONSISTING OF NVGM, AFUM, HWRF AND THE
UKMET ENSEMBLE SHOWING A SLIGHTLY MORE WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK
TOWARDS HAINAN ISLAND. IN LIGHT OF THE INCREASING UNCERTAINTY AND
DISTINCT SEPARATION IN THE CONSENSUS MODELS, THERE IS OVERALL LOW
CONFIDENCE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK, WHICH LIES JUST SOUTH OF
THE CONSENSUS TRACK, NEAR THE ECMWF SOLUTION.//
NNNN

[doomhaMwx]

Worth noting that JTWC is closely following the aggressive HWRF.

[Hayabusa]

2 days or even up to landfall of possible RI

[doomhaMwx]

CMA expects a 95kt/945mb "severe typhoon" hitting Luzon, close with JTWC.

[euro6208]

[ElectricStorm]

Not liking this one for the Philippines. That 110kt peak from JTWC is well before landfall so it could be much stronger when it actually hits...