WPAC: INVEST 95W

[Nancy Smar]

95W INVEST 210728 0000 24.0N 125.0E WPAC 15 0

[Hayabusa]

lol what the hell they skipped 92-94W?

[cycloneye]

Must be an error that surely will be fixed soon.

[Hayabusa]

WWJP27 RJTD 280000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 280000.
WARNING VALID 290000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 29N 152E NORTH SLOWLY.

[Hayabusa]

JTWC circled it as low chance but still no advisory discussion.

[Hayabusa]

Right after I posted that pic^, JTWC updated the graphic by removing the encircled 95W of being low chance, guess someone is fooling with their graphics.

[Hayabusa]

And now upgraded to low chance

ABPW10 PGTW 290130
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/290130Z-290600ZJUL2021//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/281351ZJUL2021//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 26.5N 129.5E, APPROXIMATELY 90NM EAST OF KADENA, OKINAWA.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT A
FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IMBEDDED IN A BROADER CYCLONIC
FLOW. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (05-10 KTS), DUAL
CHANNEL OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH THIS SYSTEM
TRACKING EAST NORTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 10-15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO
BE NEAR 996 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO LOW.

[Hayabusa]

WWJP27 RJTD 300000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 300000.
WARNING VALID 310000.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1000 HPA AT 27N 140E NE SLOWLY.

Thought this could be 95W but the coordinates are different

95W INVEST 210730 0000 25.8N 134.5E WPAC 20 998

[Hayabusa]

06Z JTWC relocated looks like it's 95W, hope a mod can merge the two threads

95W INVEST 210730 0600 28.4N 142.4E WPAC 20 997

WWJP27 RJTD 300600
WARNING AND SUMMARY 300600.
WARNING VALID 310600.
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 6 HOURS.
WARNING.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 998 HPA AT 27N 143E NE 10 KT.

[cycloneye]

Merged the threads to this one.

[Subtrop]

WTPN21 PGTW 301400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
130 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 28.9N 143.4E TO 38.1N 144.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 20 TO 25 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 301200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 29.0N 143.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 12
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 28.4N 142.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 29.0N 143.6E, APPROXIMATELY
433 NM SOUTHEAST OF TOKYO, JAPAN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 300825Z 89GHZ MICROWAVE DEPICTS A LOOSE CIRCULATION
THAT HAS BECOME BETTER DEFINED IN THE PAST SIX HOURS, WITH
ASSOCIATED FLARING CONVECTION AND FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND
THE EASTERN TO NORTHERN SEMI-CIRCLE. A RECENT 300938Z ASCAT-A IMAGE
REVEALS A LARGE FIELD OF 20-25 KNOT WINDS ALONG THE SOUTHEAST
QUADRANT OF THE LOOSELY DEFINED CIRCULATION, NEARING WARNING
CRITERIA. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW-MODERATE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR (10-20 KNOTS), GOOD OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
(29-30 C), OFFSET BY A DRY AIR MASS LOCATED TO THE NORTHWEST. GLOBAL
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON FURTHER DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
24 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
311400Z.
//
NNNN

[Sciencerocks]