ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
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Nancy Smar
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
06z GFS shows this system but doesn't really develop it, but the 00z run did show a pretty strong storm or even hurricane (984 mbar).
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Iceresistance
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
12z ICON is aggressive, bottoms out at 950 MB
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Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
12z GFS is back to its old tricks of stringing out every single wave, including 97L.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
Surprisingly, the 12z Euro now develops this into a high latitude hurricane. Does not look like a significant threat to land except maybe the Azores or Bermuda.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
The GFS now joins the Euro and ICON in blowing this up into a high-latitude Cat 2/3.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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cheezyWXguy
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
Iceresistance wrote:12z ICON is aggressive, bottoms out at 950 MB
https://s9.gifyu.com/images/icon_mslp_wind_atl_fh54-180.gif
I don’t think I’ve ever seen a pressure reading that low on the icon
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Kazmit
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
Looking at the latest runs it seems like Gaston '16 could be a decent analog.
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I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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ElectricStorm
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
0z GFS stalls this and makes this a major hurricane. Bottoms out at 951mb
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
The HWRF really hates this. Not only does it struggle to develop 97L, but it just can’t focus on it. Every single HWRF run ends up losing focus and wanders into the Caribbean or South America. Similar for the HWRF-P, but the field of view is wide enough to see 97L become a TS in a few days.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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ElectricStorm
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
0z GFS shows this peak as a 995mb TS, weaker than previous runs. Also takes longer to develop so if this run were to verify, this would be Julian, and the gulf major would be Ida
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I am in no way a professional. Take what I say with a grain of salt as I could be totally wrong. Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Boomer Sooner!
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
Models seem like they're taking a hard turn away from developing this all of a sudden.
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SconnieCane
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
Weather Dude wrote:0z GFS shows this peak as a 995mb TS, weaker than previous runs. Also takes longer to develop so if this run were to verify, this would be Julian, and the gulf major would be Ida
In keeping with the tradition of intense and/or high-impact "I" storms.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
97L becomes a strong TS and devours 98L on the 12z ICON. It’s odd how all of a sudden, the models went from showing a Cat 2/3 to just a TS.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: ATL: INVEST 97L - Models
Finally, some development on the HWRF without it losing focus! We get a moderate TS out of this by Saturday.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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AlphaToOmega
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