EPAC: OLAF - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/icyclone/status/1436394062534250499

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ45 KNHC 110834
TCDEP5

Post-Tropical Cyclone Olaf Discussion Number 15
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021
300 AM MDT Sat Sep 11 2021

Olaf has been without deep convection for about the last 18 hours,
and it is therefore being designated as a remnant low. A
scatterometer pass from several hours ago still showed winds of
25-30 kt occurring to the north of the center, so the initial
intensity remains 30 kt. Weakening is expected during the next few
days while the remnant low traverses waters of about 25 degrees
Celsius and through a very dry air mass. Global model fields show
the circulation opening up into a trough anywhere between 2 and 6
days from now, so as a compromise the official forecast indicates
this happening by day 4, but it's likely to be sooner than that.

Olaf is now losing latitude and moving south of due west, or 260/5
kt. A strengthening low- to mid-level ridge to the north is
expected to force the remnant low to the west-southwest and
southwest during the next several days. In fact, the models have
been trending toward a more pronounced loss of latitude, and this
final NHC track forecast has been shifted southward from the
previous advisory--close to the TVCE model consensus but not nearly
as far south as the HCCA aid.

For additional information on the remnant low please see High Seas
Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service, under AWIPS
header NFDHSFEPI, WMO header FZPN02 KWBC, and on the web at
ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFEPI.php


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 11/0900Z 24.4N 114.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 11/1800Z 24.2N 114.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 12/0600Z 23.7N 115.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 12/1800Z 22.8N 116.9W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 13/0600Z 21.5N 118.2W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
60H 13/1800Z 20.6N 119.4W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 14/0600Z 20.1N 120.3W 15 KT 15 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 15/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Berg