![Image](https://s4.gifyu.com/images/hwrf_satIR_94W_fh0-126.gif)
Yap sounding is showing -87 to -88 @ 100 mb
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mrbagyo wrote:That's a lot of CDG or -80°C cloudtops from HWRF
[url]https://s4.gifyu.com/images/hwrf_satIR_94W_fh0-126.gif [/url]
Yap sounding is showing -87 to -88 @ 100 mb
aspen wrote:mrbagyo wrote:That's a lot of CDG or -80°C cloudtops from HWRF
[url]https://s4.gifyu.com/images/hwrf_satIR_94W_fh0-126.gif [/url]
Yap sounding is showing -87 to -88 @ 100 mb
That’s a scary look at the end of the HWRF run: a monster system about to explode.
I can’t recall the last time there was this much hype for a WPac system. Maybe Goni came close, but the model runs for this have been something else.
Invest 94W has a very impressive convective mass this morning east
of Yap with cloud top temperatures as cold as -93C. But while the
center of the cloud mass is near 9.3N 140.4E, the surface circulation
is centered about 175 miles south, close to 6.8N 140.5E, and there
is very little deep convection to be found south of that surface
center. Due to this poor organization, models show very slow
development the next 24-36 hours, followed by faster development
Thursday and Friday in the vicinity of Yap. Once 94W turns more
northwest and north over the weekend, both GFS and ECMWF develop
it into a strong typhoon well west of the Marianas, possibly even
a super typhoon.
So the $64,000 dollar question is where does this thing go?
Additional concerns are how fast does it strengthen, and who gets
how much rain? First we`ll tackle the track issue. In general, the
models "wobble" the system largely in place over the next 24 to 36
hours while it slowly organizes. The Navy model (NAVGEM), which had
previously been lifting the system due north towards southwestern
Guam waters, has now trended farther west. That said, it`s still
the furthest east as it takes the strengthening center over or very
near Ulithi to the east of Yap.
Conversely, the GFS has been trending slower in its development and
is a "middle ground approach" right now as it takes the center over
Yap island before turning to the north once it crosses 10N, roughly
tracking it along the 135E meridian. The European model (ECMWF)
remains the furthest west in its overall track, but has trended
eastward in the short term (24 to 48 hours)...initially tracking it
towards the eastern side of Yap Island, before wobbling west just to
the south of the island, then continuing northwest. This model has
remained the slowest to develop the storm while taking it near the
130E meridian before it turns north. This is a much farther west
track than the previous 24 to 48 hours, but is closer to climatology.
All models then re-curve it to the northeast once it is well north
of the region.
To summarize, overall the models have come into better agreement, but
there remains some disagreements that need to be worked out. Palau
(especially the northern half) will see periods of heavy rainfall.
For Yap Island and western Yap state, this is the region really
under the gun for heavy rainfall and gusty wind (some models show
storm totals between 15 and 20 inches by week`s end, with a few
runs even higher). Please continue to monitor the latest forecast
trends!
JW-_- wrote:https://i.imgur.com/GqqLA1c.gif
What the models are thinking for accumulated precipitation for yap over the 8 days. (mm)
Kingarabian wrote:This one might be for the record books because I can't find any Aprl/May STY's that formed this low in latitude.
mrbagyo wrote:Is that a CDO forming or am I just dreaming?
https://i.imgur.com/bbFQArn.gif
https://i.imgur.com/vFAWpS3.gif
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