ATL: Remnants of INVEST 95L - Discussion

[abajan]

Meteorologist Levi Cowan's take on 95L.

[eastcoastFL]

If there is one thing that I have learned over the years, it's that you have to keep an eye on these systems that seem to persist in the most unfriendly conditions. When they find a favorable area they usually will develop. Now, I'm not sure this will find a favorable area...but something to be aware of.

Laura and Dorian are two perfect, historic examples of this. I specifically remember people thinking that Laura was screwed as a TS near the Antilles due to all that SAL, but once it reached the Gulf, kaboom. Then you have Dorian, which was also struggling due to the dry air, but once it found that sweet spot above Puerto Rico and next to the Bahamas, it went haywire. Even Andrew back in 1992 was an example of how a struggling system, when escaping the hostile conditions and entering more favorable conditions, can do a 180.

Isaias last year was like that too. We kept trying to stick a fork in it between PR and S. Fl. It looked like a naked swirl by the time it got close to west palm beach but once it reached northern Florida it really got its act together before making landfall in the Carolinas.

[Aric Dunn]

hmm.. convection profile right now looks like a big burst is coming ...

[Stormybajan]

hmm.. convection profile right now looks like a big burst is coming ...

I was about to say "is that a bit of banding I see"

[Aric Dunn]

hmm.. convection profile right now looks like a big burst is coming ...

I was about to say "is that a bit of banding I see"

if that curved hot tower is what It looks like.. that happens in particular situations..

[Aric Dunn]

That is def a rotating tower...

[Stormybajan]

Clearly 95L is trying its hardest to take shape tonight...slight banding and very clear rotation whatever we wake up to in the morning will tell us a lot

[Sciencerocks]

[Aric Dunn]

With the recent convective pattern through the overnight.. probably safe to say will be see a TD sooner rather than later..

[Chemmers]

Maybe the overshoot cloud tops are trying to wrap round the center

[Aric Dunn]

Definitely well on its way to being a TD in the next 24 hours.

[JRD]

L95 has done a pretty good job despite hostile conditions. Its cyclone has deepened from 1012 mb to 1009 mb. Probably because it's attached to the monsoon trough and maybe also its symmetric lower cold core/upper warm core structure.

(Disregard the model trajectory)

[abajan]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Sun Jun 27 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. An area of low pressure associated with a tropical wave located over
the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean more than 600 miles southwest of
the Cabo Verde Islands is producing a small area of showers and
thunderstorms. Some slow development of this system is possible
through the middle of the week while it moves a little faster
toward the west and then west-northwest at about 20 mph.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent.

...

$$
Forecaster Stewart

[cycloneye]

AL, 95, 2021062712, , BEST, 0, 101N, 328W, 25, 1009, LO

[wxman57]

Looks like a weakening tropical wave, to me. Convection decreasing, circulation less evident.

[AlphaToOmega]

https://imgur.com/a/EztdUhk

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1409125228844883968

[AlphaToOmega]

45 W is the magic line of longitude for this system. If Invest 95L makes it past 45 W, it will have an easier time developing.

[Shell Mound]

45 W is the magic line of longitude for this system. If Invest 95L makes it past 45 W, it will have an easier time developing.

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1409126407054278658



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1409128231299604490



 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1409146551428079622



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1409147640890155018

[JRD]

At this point I'd personally give 95L a nearly 0% of development over both 2 days and 5 days. It's currently plagued by some wind shear, and while shear levels are more favorable to the west, there's also dry air and Saharan dust there. Shear trends over the Caribbean and SW North Atlantic don't look very favorable either. 95L would have maybe already fallen apart if not for the monsoon trough it's attached to.