EPAC: FELICIA - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Eastward outflow looks a bit better. Shear may be subsiding.

[AlphaToOmega]

This could become our first major hurricane of the year. That would not be unusual; Douglas was a major hurricane that formed on July 31.

[Kingarabian]

Increasing CMG on Dvorak now:

[Kingarabian]

SAB up to 4.0. 14/2330 UTC 15.1N 116.0W T4.0/4.0 FELICIA -- East Pacific

TXPZ25 KNES 150004
TCSENP

A. 06E (FELICIA)

B. 14/2330Z

C. 15.1N

D. 116.0W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T4.0/4.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...AN IRREGULAR CDO WITH A DIAMETER LESS THAN 1.5 DEGREES
ALONG WITH A SMALL BANDING FEATURE OBSERVED IN RECENT SATELLITE IMAGERY
MAKES THE DT EQUAL TO 3.5. THE MET AGREES WITH DT AND THE PT IS EQUAL
TO 4.0 BASED ON A RAPID DEVELOPMENT TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. FT IS
BASED ON THE PT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH BF FOR DETERMINATION OF DT AND
AN EYE LIKE FEATURE OBSERVED IN EARLIER MICROWAVE IMAGERY.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SAMBUCCI

[Kingarabian]

18z HWRF is about 2 degrees north than its previous runs and still has a strong system.

[Yellow Evan]

Wtf SAB why is FT being based on microwave?

[Kingarabian]

Considering that SAB fix is based on an hour old frame @ 15N/116W, it looks like a strong eyewall is building:

[aspen]

18z HWRF is about 2 degrees north than its previous runs and still has a strong system.
https://i.imgur.com/VFXkIrS.gif

https://i.imgur.com/Nh4NnvF.png

If Felicia becomes annular like the HWRF is predicting, get ready for a solid ACE maker that refuses to die.

[Sciencerocks]

[Kingarabian]

Even if the satellite estimate averages do not get a consensus 4.0, the NHC might go straight to hurricane at this rate.



We can see three massive convective bursts in the last couple of hours.

[ElectricStorm]

06E FELICIA 210715 0000 15.0N 116.2W EPAC 60 994

[cycloneye]

Up to 60kts.

Best Track Position and Intensity as of:

Thursday, Jul. 15, 2021 0:00 Z

Wind (1 min. avg.):

60 knots (69 mph | 31 m/s | 111 km/h)

Pressure:

994 mb (29.36 inHg | 994 hPa)

Location at the time:

683 statute miles (1,099 km) to the SW (217°) from Cabo San Lucas, Baja California Sur, Mexico

[cycloneye]

[Yellow Evan]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* FELICIA EP062021 07/15/21 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 60 67 73 79 83 88 87 81 78 75 73 70 68 65 62 60 56
V (KT) LAND 60 67 73 79 83 88 87 81 78 75 73 70 68 65 62 60 56
V (KT) LGEM 60 67 73 77 80 82 80 76 72 70 69 69 67 62 56 52 47
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 8 6 5 4 4 7 7 2 3 6 9 4 4 6 6 4 9
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -1 0 -2 -2 -5 0 -1 -6 -5 1 0 -2 -2 -3 0
SHEAR DIR 60 50 42 53 117 58 104 213 49 73 104 125 45 2 22 290 299
SST (C) 28.6 28.3 27.9 27.6 27.4 26.8 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.9 26.9 27.1 26.8 25.9 25.9 26.3 26.7
POT. INT. (KT) 151 147 143 139 137 131 129 127 126 133 133 135 132 122 122 126 130
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -52.8 -52.6 -52.9 -52.3 -52.5 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.6
200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 4 4 4 3 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5
700-500 MB RH 66 66 68 67 65 63 56 51 49 51 50 49 53 55 53 49 47
MODEL VTX (KT) 9 11 12 13 13 14 14 13 14 14 15 15 14 13 12 11 10
850 MB ENV VOR -20 -26 -27 -20 -21 -13 -12 4 8 10 2 11 0 -11 -21 -9 -8
200 MB DIV 36 25 23 44 28 -20 -49 -36 7 -6 -18 -28 -13 -19 -29 -22 10
700-850 TADV 0 -2 -2 -1 1 0 0 -5 -5 -2 -1 0 2 1 0 0 0
LAND (KM) 1093 1146 1206 1260 1303 1420 1553 1684 1838 1981 2128 2294 2224 2039 1875 1722 1562
LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.2 15.3 15.4 15.5 15.3 15.0 14.9 14.8 14.8 14.9 14.9 14.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 116.2 117.2 118.2 119.1 119.9 121.4 122.9 124.5 126.3 128.1 130.2 132.3 134.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 9 8 8 7 7 8 9 10 10 10 10 9 8 9 9
HEAT CONTENT 19 10 7 5 4 2 2 1 0 10 6 8 2 0 0 1 2

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 483 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.8 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 33.4

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 11. 11. 11. 12. 12.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2.
PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1.
THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -8. -9.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 7. 7. 8. 7. 5. 4. 2. 1. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5.
RI POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 7. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 7. 13. 19. 23. 28. 27. 21. 18. 15. 13. 10. 8. 5. 2. -0. -4.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 15.0 116.2

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP062021 FELICIA 07/15/21 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.6 40.5 to 149.3 0.40 5.4
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 8.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.2 -33.0 to 159.5 0.33 4.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 19.6 to 1.3 0.76 9.3
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 9.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.81 7.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 251.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.62 -6.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 9.0 2.7 to 106.7 0.06 0.4
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 2.7
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : -0.9 2.2 to -2.3 0.70 1.1

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 31% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 49% is 3.9 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 42% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 34% is 5.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 26% is 6.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 30.8% 48.9% 42.1% 33.5% 25.6% 21.1% 14.5% 0.0%
Logistic: 26.9% 44.0% 33.6% 29.3% 16.7% 13.3% 3.0% 1.5%
Bayesian: 3.0% 10.2% 2.3% 1.1% 0.6% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0%
Consensus: 20.3% 34.4% 26.0% 21.3% 14.3% 11.7% 5.8% 0.5%
DTOPS: 28.0% 56.0% 43.0% 40.0% 22.0% 27.0% 6.0% 0.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP062021 FELICIA 07/15/21 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Kingarabian]

* GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* FELICIA EP062021 07/15/21 00 UTC *
#

Yeah Felicia is gonna be around for a while with this forecast.

[aspen]

There is almost certainly a core developing in Felicia. It has had massive convective burst after burst, with the most recent one expanding far beyond the others with even some pink cloud tops showing up. Backshear also appears to be less of an issue. If no additional shear pops up to wreck any developing core, I think we could be RI into a Cat 2 or maybe even a Cat 3 tomorrow.

[Kingarabian]

WPAC-esque convection

[toad strangler]

#offtotheraces

[Yellow Evan]

This is about to run into about 10 knots mid level shear which could put a dent in this.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Tropical Storm Felicia Advisory Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
800 PM PDT Wed Jul 14 2021

...FELICIA A LITTLE STRONGER...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE SOON...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.1N 116.7W
ABOUT 700 MI...1125 KM SW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...994 MB...29.36 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
There are no coastal watches or warnings in effect.


DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
At 800 PM PDT (0300 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Felicia was
located near latitude 15.1 North, longitude 116.7 West. Felicia is
moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph (24 km/h). A gradual
turn to the west is expected on Thursday, followed by a
west-southwestward motion on Friday and Saturday.

Maximum sustained winds have increased to near 70 mph (110 km/h)
with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is likely during the
next couple of days, and Felicia is forecast to become a hurricane
late tonight.

Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 70 miles (110 km)
from the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb (29.36 inches).


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
None.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next complete advisory at 200 AM PDT.

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch



Tropical Storm Felicia Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP062021
800 PM PDT Wed Jul 14 2021

Felicia has maintained a healthy satellite appearance today, with a
symmetric central dense overcast and continued bursts of deep
convection near and over its center. The upper-level outflow on the
eastern side of the circulation appears somewhat limited, perhaps
suggestive of some easterly wind shear. A mid-level eye was noted
in earlier microwave data, but unfortunately no recent passes have
sampled Felicia to help assess how the structure has changed. A
blend of the subjective Dvorak classifications from TAFB
(T3.5/55 kt) and SAB (T4.0/65 kt) supports an initial intensity of
60 kt for this advisory, which is slightly higher than the objective
ADT and SATCON estimates of around 50-55 kt.

Felicia is moving west-northwestward, or 285/13 kt, but the
cyclone is forecast to turn westward and then west-southwestward
during the next couple of days in response to a reorientation of the
ridge axis to the north of Felicia. Thereafter, a general westward
motion is likely through the rest of the forecast period as a low-
to mid-level ridge remains positioned to the north of Felicia. The
track guidance is tightly clustered, and the official NHC track
forecast is essentially an update of the previous one with a slight
southward adjustment that follows the consensus aids TVCE and HCCA.

Felicia is expected to continue strengthening during the next couple
of days over warm SSTs in a low vertical wind shear environment. The
only apparent hindrance is some dry mid-level air in the surrounding
environment, which could disrupt Felicia's convective organization
if it is entrained into the inner core of the small cyclone. The
SHIPS guidance indicates that Felicia will move into a drier and
more stable mid- to upper-level environment beginning Friday, which
is forecast to end the storm's intensification phase and induce a
gradual weakening trend this weekend and into early next week. The
official NHC intensity forecast is very similar to the previous one
and closely follows the HCCA guidance. The intensity forecast
becomes more track-sensitive by 48 h, as the expected
west-southwestward turn would keep Felicia to the south of the 26
deg C isotherm. This should allow the cyclone to remain at or near
hurricane strength through the end of the forecast period.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 15.1N 116.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 15.4N 118.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 15.5N 120.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 15.3N 121.5W 85 KT 100 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 15.0N 123.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 17/1200Z 14.7N 124.7W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 14.7N 126.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 14.8N 130.2W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 20/0000Z 15.0N 134.5W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Reinhart/Pasch