ATL: FRED - Models

[tolakram]

Euro animated

[Shell Mound]

One thing that the SHIPS model has been trending down is on shear down the road. Yesterday it was showing shear in the mid to upper 20 knots, now is down to upper teens to near 20 at the most.

https://i.imgur.com/5sqpPi1.gif

VWS would still need to be ≤10 kt to allow for meaningful deepening prior to landfall on South Florida. Currently shear is still going to be too high for deepening.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/MeteoAero/status/1424732338546749446

[AutoPenalti]

One thing that the SHIPS model has been trending down is on shear down the road. Yesterday it was showing shear in the mid to upper 20 knots, now is down to upper teens to near 20 at the most.

https://i.imgur.com/5sqpPi1.gif

VWS would still need to be ≤10 kt to allow for meaningful deepening prior to landfall on South Florida. Currently shear is still going to be too high for deepening.

For every knot of shear that decreases it allows for intensity to climb up.

[Shell Mound]

One thing that the SHIPS model has been trending down is on shear down the road. Yesterday it was showing shear in the mid to upper 20 knots, now is down to upper teens to near 20 at the most.

https://i.imgur.com/5sqpPi1.gif

VWS would still need to be ≤10 kt to allow for meaningful deepening prior to landfall on South Florida. Currently shear is still going to be too high for deepening.

For every knot of shear that decreases it allows for intensity to climb up.

It’s still not enough to allow for more than a low-end TS at best. If models were to show substantially lower VWS, then South Florida should be more concerned.

[AutoPenalti]

VWS would still need to be ≤10 kt to allow for meaningful deepening prior to landfall on South Florida. Currently shear is still going to be too high for deepening.

For every knot of shear that decreases it allows for intensity to climb up.

It’s still not enough to allow for more than a low-end TS at best. If models were to show substantially lower VWS, then South Florida should be more concerned.

Wasn't that ULL forecast to move towards the Gulf by this weekend?

[SFLcane]

VWS would still need to be ≤10 kt to allow for meaningful deepening prior to landfall on South Florida. Currently shear is still going to be too high for deepening.

For every knot of shear that decreases it allows for intensity to climb up.

It’s still not enough to allow for more than a low-end TS at best. If models were to show substantially lower VWS, then South Florida should be more concerned.

We get it.

[Shell Mound]

For every knot of shear that decreases it allows for intensity to climb up.

It’s still not enough to allow for more than a low-end TS at best. If models were to show substantially lower VWS, then South Florida should be more concerned.

Wasn't that ULL forecast to move towards the Gulf by this weekend?

The distance between the ULL and 94L by then will still be too small to result in meaningful reduction in VWS. The ULL needs to be either weaker or more distant.

[tolakram]

It’s still not enough to allow for more than a low-end TS at best. If models were to show substantially lower VWS, then South Florida should be more concerned.

Wasn't that ULL forecast to move towards the Gulf by this weekend?

The distance between the ULL and 94L by then will still be too small to result in meaningful reduction in VWS.

If that's the way it plays out. The Euro had nothing just a few runs ago, now it has something. This is no Irma, and I doubt it makes it much past a minor hurricane, IF it even makes it to hurricane, but I would not trust the models past 3 days at this point, they have been horribly wrong when it comes to systems that are in a marginal environment.

[Blown Away]

12z Intensity


06z Intensity


00z Intensity

I wouldn't put to much stock in this, but the intensity has been trending up past few runs... 12z probably a slight uptick because model cluster brushes N coast of Hispaniola instead of head on...

[ScottNAtlanta]

It’s still not enough to allow for more than a low-end TS at best. If models were to show substantially lower VWS, then South Florida should be more concerned.

Wasn't that ULL forecast to move towards the Gulf by this weekend?

The distance between the ULL and 94L by then will still be too small to result in meaningful reduction in VWS. The ULL needs to be either weaker or more distant.

There is almost no way you can know the position of the ULL at that time frame. The models get this aspect wrong as many times as they are right at that time frame. You might be right but only in terms of a stopped clock being right twice a day.

[Shell Mound]

Wasn't that ULL forecast to move towards the Gulf by this weekend?

The distance between the ULL and 94L by then will still be too small to result in meaningful reduction in VWS. The ULL needs to be either weaker or more distant.

The models get this aspect wrong as many times as they are right at that time frame.

 https://twitter.com/WeatherMatrix/status/1424737611558662145

[tolakram]

Here's the 300MB forecast from the Euro for Saturday August 14th.

This is the 8/6 run of the 0Z


And this is this mornings 0Z run

[tolakram]

Here's the EPS spread over the next 5 days.

[tolakram]

Latest GEFS just to document them here.


My bias is simple, I expect the first strong storm to be west (gulf perhaps), so I'm expecting a struggling TD or TS that approaches south Florida. After that it either curves north or maybe makes it into the gulf. If this goes into the gulf conditions should be improving. Both the ensembles are showing a more northerly track, but the GFS is sending many into the gulf. Can it be trusted? NO.

[Spacecoast]

0z ECMF shifted east a bit


ECMF progression has been consistent for last 3 runs..

[fci]

https://twitter.com/MeteoAero/status/1424732338546749446

For those who do not speak Spanish; here is the Google Translation:
Invest # 94L in the Lesser Antilles arc with a cyclonic development probability of 70% in 5 days. It is monitored. It interacts with significant rainfall in the Delta. Predominant cloudiness in Oriente and Bolívar. # 9Ago pic.twitter.com/mQL9lA4JZx
- Pedro Jaimes Criollo

[BobHarlem]

12Z Icon rides Hispaniola then cuts east of Cuba, then stalls the system out off SW Florida. Never really gets going though.

[aspen]

Both the CMC and 12z ICON have 94L enter the Gulf and re-intensify there. However, if the other models are right about the TUTT backing into the Gulf, then the environment won’t be favorable.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/KeviShader/status/1424760883050332167