ATL: GRACE - Remnants - Discussion

[Shell Mound]

Easterly shear seems like a major inhibitor so far this year--this is the second or third strong disturbance/low to be decapitated from the east.

As we saw last year, the strong African monsoon and high amplitude of the waves is only contributing to easterly shear and AWB-induced intrusions of dry air.

[aspen]

Looks like 95L has two competing “centers”, one near 15N and another near 10N. Whichever one becomes dominant will determine the fixture track of the system, either into the Caribbean or into the Bahamas and near the East Coast.

[HurricaneEnzo]

This has the pre-Isaias double blobber look this morning. 2 blobs enter, only 1 blob will take home victory.

[cycloneye]

Showers and thunderstorms remain disorganized in association with a
tropical wave located about 1400 miles east of the Lesser
Antilles. Environmental conditions are expected to gradually
become more conducive for development, and a tropical depression
could form by early next week while the system moves generally
westward at about 20 mph across the tropical Atlantic. This system
is expected to reach portions of the Leeward Islands late Saturday
or early Sunday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent.

[Kohlecane]

Best looking Wave I've seen, this will be interesting to track, TWC is already throwing out there that if it follows the ensembles to the N then it can spell trouble for a stronger storm coming close to the CONUS

[Stormybajan]

This wave looked so strange, I was sure the southern portion would take over but the northern portion always stayed around and to my eyes looks to be taking over. Maybe this is why models are not so hot with 95L to date

[Kohlecane]

This wave looked so strange, I was sure the southern portion would take over but the northern portion always stayed around and to my eyes looks to be taking over. Maybe this is why models are not so hot with 95L to date

[cycloneye]

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95L)

B. 12/1130Z

C. 14.3N

D. 41.0W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/2.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CORRECTED FOR CLASSIFICATION IMAGE TIME. SYSTEM HAS LOOSELY
DEFINED CLOUND LINES AROUND AN LLCC THAT IS NEAR THE ACTIVE SMALL COLD
OVERCAST RESULTING IN A SHEAR PATTERN DT OF 1.5. THE 24 HR DEVELOPING
TREND RESULTS IN DEVELOPING SLOWLY. MET AND PT ARE 1.5.FT IS BASED ON
MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LLCC LOCATION EMBEDDED IN A BROAD
CIRCULATION AND CLOUD FEATURES NOT BEING CLEAR CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...PATEL

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1425800685564665858

[abajan]

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95L)

B. 12/1130Z

C. 14.3N

D. 41.0W

E. FIVE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/2.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CORRECTED FOR CLASSIFICATION IMAGE TIME. SYSTEM HAS LOOSELY
DEFINED CLOUND LINES AROUND AN LLCC THAT IS NEAR THE ACTIVE SMALL COLD
OVERCAST RESULTING IN A SHEAR PATTERN DT OF 1.5. THE 24 HR DEVELOPING
TREND RESULTS IN DEVELOPING SLOWLY. MET AND PT ARE 1.5.FT IS BASED ON
MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT LLCC LOCATION EMBEDDED IN A BROAD
CIRCULATION AND CLOUD FEATURES NOT BEING CLEAR CUT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...PATEL

Visual of 1130z position (14.3N 41.0W) according to Google Maps:

[Yellow Evan]

Almost there. Just needs westerlies.

[Teban54]

I was expecting posts similar to the "Team East Blob vs Team West Blob" contests in last year's Isaias thread. Guess people have been too focused on Fred...

[aspen]

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/857017650042503178/875366706464297000/LATEST.png

Almost there. Just needs westerlies.

I guess Team North Blob is gonna win.

[Category5Kaiju]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1425818636141268994

[Iceresistance]

Next Name is Grace, It's already close to TS-Force winds!

[AlphaToOmega]

Because it is a closed low, I see the NHC significantly increasing formation chances in the next TWO.

[Stormybajan]

Because it is a closed low, I see the NHC significantly increasing formation chances in the next TWO.

Agreed I think they will go with 60/80

[Category5Kaiju]

I would not be surprised to see cherry by the 2 EST advisory

[aspen]

With 95L concentrating around 14N instead of 11-12N, that puts the islands of Barbuda, Antigua, Guadeloupe, Saint Kitts, and Saint Martin at the most risk by Saturday night/Sunday morning. It also means a Caribbean Cruiser track is significantly less likely, because all models except for the HMON/HWRF show it gaining latitude over the next 3-4 days. Either it’ll run over the Greater Antilles like Laura, or stay to the north like Irma. We won’t know for sure until an actual defined center forms, but I think we can confidently say that the NE Leeward Islands are at the most risk.

[afswo]

Shame I am going to miss the peak of this storm if it develops. Got boot camp for ROTC in college next week.

Good Luck! Make the most of it, take away the best of it, and don't take anything too personal. Speaking from 29 years experience in the USAF (Retired CMSgt (E-9)).