ATL: NICHOLAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Increasing CAPE air flowing into the convection.
Looks like it'll ramp up.

[LadyBug72]

Wonder if the forecasters at the NHC will forego the PTC Fourteen and go to "Nicholas" shortly?

They did find some TS winds on their way in. Wouldn't be surprised but they might just go with TD.

They removed the PTC announcement from their website.

What does that mean?

[tropicwatch]

They did find some TS winds on their way in. Wouldn't be surprised but they might just go with TD.

They removed the PTC announcement from their website.

What does that mean?

Possibly going to name it I would think.

[jaguars_22]

Most likely means it’s a tropical storm already in my opinion

[ThetaE]

Worth noting recon hasn't really found a significant pressure drop. I suspect there's one closer to the hot tower they've been flying around, but the significant influence of nearby land on the windfield observed is noteworthy.

 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1437058667266854919

[LadyBug72]

They removed the PTC announcement from their website.

What does that mean?

Possibly going to name it I would think.

That was my thinking too, but I’m still learning and definitely a newbie. Thank you!!

[wxman57]

I still think this is going east of Victoria and could directly hit houston

I have it doing both. Right over Houston after hitting Matagorda Bay. 20-30 mph wind in Houston.

[underthwx]

I still think this is going east of Victoria and could directly hit houston

I have it doing both. Right over Houston after hitting Matagorda Bay. 20-30 mph wind in Houston.

Either way....rain rain rain....I don't get rained out at work....I get rained on...

[AlphaToOmega]

690
WTNT24 KNHC 121457
TCMAT4

TROPICAL STORM NICHOLAS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL142021
1500 UTC SUN SEP 12 2021

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
THE MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO PORT ARANSAS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FROM
BARRA EL MEZQUITAL NORTHWARD TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER.

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM THE
MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO HIGH ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF TEXAS FROM
NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS TO HIGH ISLAND.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO PORT ARANSAS TEXAS
* BARRA EL MEZQUITAL TO THE U.S./MEXICO BORDER

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* MOUTH OF THE RIO GRANDE TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF PORT ARANSAS TO HIGH ISLAND TEXAS

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF
LIFE-THREATENING INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM
THE COASTLINE...IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS. FOR A DEPICTION OF AREAS AT RISK...PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC...AVAILABLE AT
HURRICANES.GOV.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 94.8W AT 12/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 25 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1008 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 35 KT WITH GUSTS TO 45 KT.
34 KT....... 90NE 0SE 0SW 0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.5N 94.8W AT 12/1500Z
AT 12/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.9N 94.4W

FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 21.9N 95.7W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 13/1200Z 24.1N 96.6W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 40SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 26.4N 96.9W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 50SE 20SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 28.2N 96.5W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 30SE 0SW 0NW.
34 KT... 70NE 60SE 30SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 29.4N 95.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 50NE 60SE 0SW 0NW.

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 30.3N 95.2W...INLAND
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 31.0N 94.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 17/1200Z 32.0N 94.5W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 30 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.5N 94.8W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT34 KNHC/MIATCPAT4...AT 12/1800Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

[zzh]

NHC issuing advisories for the Atlantic on TS Nicholas

[GCANE]

NHC tagged it TS Nicholas

[jaguars_22]

Wxman so Victoria may get missed all together? Does it still have a chance to hit corpus

[GCANE]

Not seeing any kind of strong steering as this gets closer to the coast.
Could go anywhere, another loose cannon in the GoM.

[underthwx]

Tropical Storm Nicholas in the Gulf....no forecast cone yet...

[BobHarlem]

Looks like they skipped the PTC and went straight to Nicholas after that last recon pass.

[lrak]

that sure is a close to Corpus Christi, I'm really hoping for shear and a small wind field

[GCANE]

Recon showing a lot of inflow into the deep convection.
This may end up being a tight TC by the end of the day,

[jaguars_22]

This is going to be a close call for corpus and Victoria but I believe houston is in for it regardless. I’m going strong cat 1 into bay city area

[kassi]

pic uploader

[IcyTundra]

Never trust a tropical cyclone in the Gulf of Mexico that's all I am going to say. This one should be weakening on approach to landfall, but I think this will become a cat 1 before weakening to a strong TS at landfall.