ATL: NICHOLAS - Models

[IcyTundra]

Areas SW and East of Houston absolutely get hammered on the 00Z Euro 20+ inches of rain in isolated areas. Most of the Houston metro makes it out ok though, but as well all know it is close to impossible to predict exactly what areas will get the most rainfall so this can change. It is also moving pretty slowly in the 00Z Euro landfall is early Tuesday morning just east of Corpus Christi and is still over SE Texas by Thursday afternoon.

Edit: Wow looks like an area just to the northwest of Winnie gets 30 inches of rain on this run.

[Cpv17]

Areas SW and East of Houston absolutely get hammered on the 00Z Euro 20+ inches of rain in isolated areas. Most of the Houston metro makes it out ok though, but as well all know it is close to impossible to predict exactly what areas will get the most rainfall so this can change. It is also moving pretty slowly in the 00Z Euro landfall is early Tuesday morning just east of Corpus Christi and is still over SE Texas by Thursday afternoon.

Edit: Wow looks like an area just to the northwest of Winnie gets 30 inches of rain on this run.

The gradients are crazy. It shows 3.5” for me and just 40-50 miles northeast of me it shows 24”. Looks like it’s going hit a wall of dry air to it’s north when/if it gets to southeast TX. Looks like mostly all of the convection will be heavily weighted on the south and east side of the storm. If not for that then there would probably be a greater coverage of higher rain totals further inland.

[kevin]

00z GFS shows a 979 mbar hurricane only 2 days from now.

[ChrisH-UK]

10m winds are showing that 94L could have hurricane winds tomorrow.

[xironman]

HWRF 70kt into the Texas coast.

[NDG]

06z Euro, I think the strongest run so far with 94L, at least during the past 24 hrs.
A very slight shift to the east

[NDG]

12z SHIPS now show shear under 20 knots through at least predawn Tuesday morning, while previous run was showing shear above 20 knots by Monday evening/night.

[ColdMiser123]

The main hinderance to intensification that I'm seeing is related to dry air, moderate shear could easily entrain that into the circulation. However, storms have fended off worse shear than what is being forecast for Nicholas. A good example recently in the Gulf is with Hurricane Sally.

[tolakram]

6Z euro has this gaining strength over land.

[tolakram]

Precip looks extreme.

[ColdMiser123]

GFS is coming in quite a bit stronger than 6z through hour 24

[IcyTundra]

GFS stronger and further west than the 06Z run.

[tolakram]

[IcyTundra]

Massive shift west from the GFS 00Z and 06Z runs had landfall in Cameron Parish, LA but the 12Z run has landfall in Sargent, Texas southwest of Houston.

[Steve]

GFs painting the rainfall into SETX and Houston.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 1212&fh=54

[IcyTundra]

12Z GFS would be very bad for the Houston metro. Models should hone in on a solution by the 00Z runs tonight as we now have a center formed and have had a recon mission out there.

[NDG]

12z GFS shows Nicholas either reforming further north or tracking northward faster than previous runs, thus a more westerly track towards the mid and upper TX coast.

[xironman]

12Z GFS would be very bad for the Houston metro. Models should hone in on a solution by the 00Z runs tonight as we now have a center formed and have had a recon mission out there.

Would have been nice to have a G-IV mission, but I guess it is too late.

[SoupBone]

12z GFS shows Nicholas either reforming further north or tracking northward faster than previous runs, thus a more westerly track towards the mid and upper TX coast.

Yeah, something wonky about this run. It jumps really fast north, or like you said reforms? It looks odd, even on the 1 hour loop.

[tolakram]

GFS total rainfall prediction