ATL: PETER - Models

[Woofde]

The recurve on the GFS is happening over 240 hours out. Compared to the past two runs its not even a similar setup. No point in speculating on recurve potential right now.

At hour 144 GFS ensembles are generally a tad stronger and further SW than the 06z and 00z run.

[toad strangler]

Adios on the 12Z GFS:

https://i.postimg.cc/G2j6Thf1/gfs-z500a-Norm-atl-fh72-246.gif

Buried into the GA's at 6z and back to Larryish once again. Back and forth like a yo yo. I was correct that there would be a near 100% chance of a vastly different outcome and here it is lol. Near 100% it's vastly different again at 18z

[blp]

12z models now showing more favorable environment toward the end of the runs. This is such a fluid forecast not only with the intensity but the track. Very early to call this an OTS. This one has my attention.

[SFLcane]

Incoming trof to save the day. Being almost Oct it will be hard for any ridge to hold. Many days out so I guess worth keeping an eye on.

[AutoPenalti]

Adios on the 12Z GFS:

https://i.postimg.cc/G2j6Thf1/gfs-z500a-Norm-atl-fh72-246.gif

So we're just going to ignore that tiny dot?

[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET: still a bear

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 95L ANALYSED POSITION : 14.0N 18.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL952021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.09.2021 0 14.0N 18.2W 1012 20
0000UTC 15.09.2021 12 CEASED TRACKING

[StPeteMike]

GFS didn’t have development of this a few days ago. Any runs from it showing it being killed off or recurving should be taken with the littlest of a grain of salt.

I’ll wait to see where it’s at in looks and trajectory in a few days to be certain of its fate.

[aspen]

12z GFS survives the TUTT quite well, but doesn’t find any super favorable conditions in the rest of the run. Smacks Bermuda again, this time as a Cat 2.

12z CMC doesn’t develop this until it passes the Leeward Islands, then it stalls over an area of very high SSTs and OHC.

12z HWRF once again has slow development for the next few days, before it starts intensifying into a hurricane over the weekend. This appears to be when UL winds will be the most favorable before 95L encounters the TUTT early next week.

[kevin]

12z HWRF, by far its strongest run so far. Consistently above 35 kt as of +24 (Wednesday morning), 65+ kt as of +99 (Saturday morning). An intensifying cat 2 at the end of the run.

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro loop through 192 hours, an uneventful model run which is good news:

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1437797848960077827




A lot of things can change, but the future doesn't look bright for 95L at the moment.

[SconnieCane]

Looks like nearly an identical 500MB setup for 95l as with Larry on this particular run of the long-range GFS with a one-two punch of troughs rolling off the eastern seaboard. Those troughs usher in well below normal temps for much of the eastern half of the CONUS:

https://i.postimg.cc/MpvPW5qw/gfs-z500a-Norm-atl-fh120-294.gif

Interesting, my local forecast (southern Wisconsin) has much ABOVE-normal temperatures from Thursday through the end of the period. 87 Sunday, 88 Monday.

[aspen]

95L gets eaten by a stalling 96L on the 12z Euro.

Also, the 12z HWRF-P gets its focus stuck on a low pressure area over Africa, so we don’t know what the UL environment in the 12z HWRF is like. 95L’s more robust intensification phase suggests it might be closer to being under the anticyclone in this run.

[LarryWx]

12Z EPS at 240: amazingly quiet for Sep 24th, especially considering how active recent runs were

[gatorcane]

12Z EPS at 240: amazingly quiet for Sep 24th, especially considering how active recent runs were
https://i.imgur.com/uuerAkO.png

Wow

It is apparent from the modeling there could be a rough road ahead for 95l

[otowntiger]

12Z EPS at 240: amazingly quiet for Sep 24th, especially considering how active recent runs were
https://i.imgur.com/uuerAkO.png

Wow

It is apparent from the modeling there could be a rough road ahead for 95l

. Apparently not just 95l. If the models are to be believed the rest of September could be anomolosly (sp) quiet.

[Category5Kaiju]

12Z EPS at 240: amazingly quiet for Sep 24th, especially considering how active recent runs were
https://i.imgur.com/uuerAkO.png

Wow

It is apparent from the modeling there could be a rough road ahead for 95l

. Apparently not just 95l. If the models are to be believed the rest of September could be anomolosly (sp) quiet.

Quite interestingly, the models are also pretty bearish about future activity in the WPAC and EPAC for most of this month...huh????

[jaxfladude]

12Z EPS at 240: amazingly quiet for Sep 24th, especially considering how active recent runs were
https://i.imgur.com/uuerAkO.png

Wow

It is apparent from the modeling there could be a rough road ahead for 95l

. Apparently not just 95l. If the models are to be believed the rest of September could be anomolosly (sp) quiet.

Good news if true. Hopefully the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season ends soon enough!!!!

[SouthFLTropics]

I’m just afraid that this is the calm before the storm… it may signal the shutdown to the MDR but I’m more concerned about what may come out of the Western Caribbean in October.


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[blp]

18z is a different run again. No 96l as it gets out quick. Ridge building in this time more.

Big variations in the mid range.

Edit: another low develops to dent the ridge. Also rapidly strengthening this time north of the islands. Crazy.