WPAC: RAI - Post-Tropical

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MarioProtVI
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#101 Postby MarioProtVI » Wed Dec 15, 2021 1:02 pm

JTWC overrides 12z to 90 kt. So much for the “CCC” :lol:
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#102 Postby aspen » Wed Dec 15, 2021 1:15 pm

If that eye manages to clear, Rai could be a Cat 4 at landfall. It’s thankfully running out of time fast. However, some B pixels have been showing up in the eye over the last few hours.
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#103 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Wed Dec 15, 2021 1:29 pm

I mean its got another 18 hours till landfall.
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#104 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Wed Dec 15, 2021 1:37 pm

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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#105 Postby ElectricStorm » Wed Dec 15, 2021 1:41 pm

This thing looks like it's exploding. Wouldn't be surprised to see a strong Cat 4+ at landfall unfortunately. Kinda reminds me a bit of Nock-ten 2016.
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#106 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Wed Dec 15, 2021 1:44 pm

Pinhole eye incoming
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#107 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Dec 15, 2021 2:05 pm

Cat 4
28W RAI 211215 1800 9.4N 128.9E WPAC 115 944
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#108 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Wed Dec 15, 2021 2:06 pm

Hold up, I see signs that the storm may be undergoing an ERWC. I see inner and outer wrapping clouds.
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#109 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Dec 15, 2021 2:13 pm

:double: thanks to that VCDG
2021DEC15 184000 5.0 968 90 5.0 5.0 7.5 MW ON OFF OFF OFF OFF -30.16 -88.14 EYE/P -99 IR 74.0 9.42 -128.79 ARCHER HIM-8 17.7
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#110 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Wed Dec 15, 2021 2:16 pm

Edit: microwave scan does not suggest an eyewall replacement cycle at all.
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#111 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Wed Dec 15, 2021 2:23 pm

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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#112 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Wed Dec 15, 2021 2:25 pm

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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#113 Postby aspen » Wed Dec 15, 2021 2:39 pm

Welp, my comments about shear keeping this at bay aged poorly. Rai could be a Super Typhoon by landfall if an EWRC doesn’t start overnight. Reminds me a lot of Eta.

Also, Rai’s Philippines name is Odette. It couldn’t be any more different than the pathetic excuse for a TC that the Atlantic Odette was
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#114 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Wed Dec 15, 2021 2:43 pm

Cloud tops continue to get colder and more organized and the eye temp is rapidly approaching the positive realm. It is still below -50C but the eye is quickly warming.
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#115 Postby zzh » Wed Dec 15, 2021 2:53 pm

2021DEC15 191000 5.0 967 90 5.0 5.0 7.0 MW ON OFF OFF OFF OFF -62.81 -88.18 EYE

Adt has a huge bias when facing very cold cloudtops.
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#116 Postby InfernoFlameCat » Wed Dec 15, 2021 2:57 pm

Cloud tops are nearing -100C now. And this time, its a CDO.
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#117 Postby Hayabusa » Wed Dec 15, 2021 3:17 pm

Latest warning cat 5 before landfall :double:
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#118 Postby ElectricStorm » Wed Dec 15, 2021 3:33 pm

Hayabusa wrote:Latest warning cat 5 before landfall :double:
https://i.imgur.com/HPDaL8j.gif

Yikes. Hope everyone over there stays safe. Unreal.
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#119 Postby Yellow Evan » Wed Dec 15, 2021 3:34 pm

Cold today being so cold is largely a biproduct of the wintertime tropopause. Put this storm off the Bahamas in the summer and it’d be just as strong with warmer cloud tops due to the warmer tropopause.
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon

#120 Postby aspen » Wed Dec 15, 2021 3:39 pm

Yellow Evan wrote:Cold today being so cold is largely a biproduct of the wintertime tropopause. Put this storm off the Bahamas in the summer and it’d be just as strong with warmer cloud tops due to the warmer tropopause.

That’s why I’ll be skeptical of Cat 5 intensity estimates unless this has a 20C pinhole. This is very similar to Eta, except even later in the calendar year and without recon.
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