WPAC: RAI - Post-Tropical
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon
If that eye manages to clear, Rai could be a Cat 4 at landfall. It’s thankfully running out of time fast. However, some B pixels have been showing up in the eye over the last few hours.
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I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
- InfernoFlameCat
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon
I mean its got another 18 hours till landfall.
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- InfernoFlameCat
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon
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- ElectricStorm
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon
This thing looks like it's exploding. Wouldn't be surprised to see a strong Cat 4+ at landfall unfortunately. Kinda reminds me a bit of Nock-ten 2016.
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- InfernoFlameCat
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon
Pinhole eye incoming
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Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon
Cat 4
28W RAI 211215 1800 9.4N 128.9E WPAC 115 944
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
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- InfernoFlameCat
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon
Hold up, I see signs that the storm may be undergoing an ERWC. I see inner and outer wrapping clouds.
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I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon
thanks to that VCDG
2021DEC15 184000 5.0 968 90 5.0 5.0 7.5 MW ON OFF OFF OFF OFF -30.16 -88.14 EYE/P -99 IR 74.0 9.42 -128.79 ARCHER HIM-8 17.7
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
- InfernoFlameCat
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon
Edit: microwave scan does not suggest an eyewall replacement cycle at all.
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- InfernoFlameCat
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon
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- InfernoFlameCat
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon
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I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon
Welp, my comments about shear keeping this at bay aged poorly. Rai could be a Super Typhoon by landfall if an EWRC doesn’t start overnight. Reminds me a lot of Eta.
Also, Rai’s Philippines name is Odette. It couldn’t be any more different than the pathetic excuse for a TC that the Atlantic Odette was
Also, Rai’s Philippines name is Odette. It couldn’t be any more different than the pathetic excuse for a TC that the Atlantic Odette was
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
- InfernoFlameCat
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon
Cloud tops continue to get colder and more organized and the eye temp is rapidly approaching the positive realm. It is still below -50C but the eye is quickly warming.
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I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon
2021DEC15 191000 5.0 967 90 5.0 5.0 7.0 MW ON OFF OFF OFF OFF -62.81 -88.18 EYE
Adt has a huge bias when facing very cold cloudtops.
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- InfernoFlameCat
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon
Cloud tops are nearing -100C now. And this time, its a CDO.
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I am by no means a professional. DO NOT look at my forecasts for official information or make decisions based on what I post.
Goal: to become a registered expert over tropical and subtropical cyclones.
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon
Latest warning cat 5 before landfall
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい!!!
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
- ElectricStorm
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon
Hayabusa wrote:Latest warning cat 5 before landfall
https://i.imgur.com/HPDaL8j.gif
Yikes. Hope everyone over there stays safe. Unreal.
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon
Cold today being so cold is largely a biproduct of the wintertime tropopause. Put this storm off the Bahamas in the summer and it’d be just as strong with warmer cloud tops due to the warmer tropopause.
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Re: WPAC: RAI - Typhoon
Yellow Evan wrote:Cold today being so cold is largely a biproduct of the wintertime tropopause. Put this storm off the Bahamas in the summer and it’d be just as strong with warmer cloud tops due to the warmer tropopause.
That’s why I’ll be skeptical of Cat 5 intensity estimates unless this has a 20C pinhole. This is very similar to Eta, except even later in the calendar year and without recon.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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