ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[StPeteMike]

Confused why the NHC has her weakening in their forecast. Normally when they do, they’ll state the cause in the advisory post… they mention nothing that would contribute to her weakening. Never want to question the NHC but just seems foolish to be this conservative now with this storm already 15 mph stronger than they had it forecasted at its peak.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Confused why the NHC has her weakening in their forecast. Normally when they do, they’ll state the cause in the advisory post… they mention nothing that would contribute to her weakening. Never want to question the NHC but just seems foolish to be this conservative now with this storm already 15 mph stronger than they had it forecasted at its peak.

They only updated the first 36 hours on the forecast so they have not forecasted weakening yet.

[NDG]

Is Elsa the earliest MDR hurricane on record?

No, 1933 Trinidad Hurricane has that beat I believe. Correct me if I am wrong because this is off the top of my head.

Is the earliest hurricane east of 60W since 1933 so you are correct.

[presidentofyes12]

I think the NHC’s position is a little too west.

I don't think so. It seems accurate, to me at least.

[Shell Mound]

Confused why the NHC has her weakening in their forecast. Normally when they do, they’ll state the cause in the advisory post… they mention nothing that would contribute to her weakening. Never want to question the NHC but just seems foolish to be this conservative now with this storm already 15 mph stronger than they had it forecasted at its peak.

They only updated the first 36 hours on the forecast so they have not forecasted weakening yet.

Yes, the weakening in the latter part of the package is based on the possibility of interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba.

[GeneratorPower]

This situation is unfolding more seriously than planned.

[InfernoFlameCat]

I think the NHC’s position is a little too west.

Remember the satellite presentation is a bit behind and combine it with Elsa absolutely racing through it makes it appear that the center is a bit off.

[aspen]

I think the NHC’s position is a little too west.

I don't think so. It seems accurate, to me at least.

The NHC put the center at 60.1W, on the very edge of the main convective blob. Based on IR/visible imagery and the. Barbados radar, the center is probably between 59.9W and 59.5W.

[kevin]

I couldn't think of any Barbados hurricanes this early in the season so I went to the online database to check my suspicion and indeed. 18 storms have passed within 100 miles of Barbados in the time period April - July. But none at hurricane strength, until now.

[StPeteMike]

Confused why the NHC has her weakening in their forecast. Normally when they do, they’ll state the cause in the advisory post… they mention nothing that would contribute to her weakening. Never want to question the NHC but just seems foolish to be this conservative now with this storm already 15 mph stronger than they had it forecasted at its peak.

They only updated the first 36 hours on the forecast so they have not forecasted weakening yet.

Yes, the weakening in the latter part of the package is based on the possibility of interaction with Hispaniola and Cuba.

Even so, it’s hard to believe it won’t strengthen a little further in the short term.

[Blinhart]

So we have Hurricane Elsa out there before reaching the LA, with her getting stronger faster than expected, will this result more poleward movement or further West before turning North.

[presidentofyes12]

At this point, I think Elsa's going to reach category 2 intensity, and I wouldn't be too surprised if it became a low-end major hurricane.

[InfernoFlameCat]

So we have Hurricane Elsa out there before reaching the LA, with her getting stronger faster than expected, will this result more poleward movement or further West before turning North.

Almost definitely yes. It should really feel the ridge. Also could make it move faster.

[Shell Mound]

At this point, I think Elsa's going to reach category 2 intensity, and I wouldn't be too surprised if it became a low-end major hurricane.

Shear will only lessen from this point onward. Barring interaction with land, there really isn’t any hindrance to a Cat-4+ system in a day or two.

[wx98]

So we have Hurricane Elsa out there before reaching the LA, with her getting stronger faster than expected, will this result more poleward movement or further West before turning North.

I’ve seen the Caribbean storm with the center of the cone over western FL/eastern Gulf many times. Guess it’ll depend on steering currents in the higher levels but a stronger storm would usually pull up the East Coast as opposed to the Gulf.

[wx98]

At this point, I think Elsa's going to reach category 2 intensity, and I wouldn't be too surprised if it became a low-end major hurricane.

Shear will only lessen from this point onward. Barring interaction with land, there really isn’t any hindrance to a Cat-4+ system in a day or two.

Early July doesn’t really favor Cat 4, but I know it has happened. Not expecting it here though. Maybe low-end Cat 3.

[InfernoFlameCat]

At this point, I think Elsa's going to reach category 2 intensity, and I wouldn't be too surprised if it became a low-end major hurricane.

Shear will only lessen from this point onward. Barring interaction with land, there really isn’t any hindrance to a Cat-4+ system in a day or two.

Early July doesn’t really favor Cat 4, but I know it has happened. Not expecting it here though. Maybe low-end Cat 3.

Early July does not favor a tropical storm in the mdr. I don’t know why September came this early.

[Cat5James]

At this point, I think Elsa's going to reach category 2 intensity, and I wouldn't be too surprised if it became a low-end major hurricane.

Shear will only lessen from this point onward. Barring interaction with land, there really isn’t any hindrance to a Cat-4+ system in a day or two.

Early July doesn’t really favor Cat 4, but I know it has happened. Not expecting it here though. Maybe low-end Cat 3.

There is enough OHC in the waters it will be traversing to support a Cat 4. The main hindrance in July would be shear and dry air, neither of which are presenting a major obstacle at the moment (or projected to do so).

[ElectricStorm]

At this point, I think Elsa's going to reach category 2 intensity, and I wouldn't be too surprised if it became a low-end major hurricane.

Shear will only lessen from this point onward. Barring interaction with land, there really isn’t any hindrance to a Cat-4+ system in a day or two.

Early July doesn’t really favor Cat 4, but I know it has happened. Not expecting it here though. Maybe low-end Cat 3.

Yeah that's what I'm thinking as well. Still very impressive

[InfernoFlameCat]

Man this season reminds me of 2005. Only difference is the pre season storm.