ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[ColdFusion]

WOW grabbed a couple hours sleep, and wake up to what feels like a gut punch looking at the the models. And I knew it would be a monster since yesterday, but dang this is so worse case!

Any news on them getting the pumps working in NOLA?

96 of the 99 pumps in the city are operational. The 3 that are down will likely stay down.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Ida might even begin to clear an eye before hitting Cuba. unlikely but possible.

[ThetaE]

It also looks to be tracking significantly farther east than even the HWRF. At this rate the formative eye could just “scrape” the easternmost Isla de la Juventud.

Definitely seems like there was a bit of a reformation/snap of the center towards the deeper convection, which was (and still is) mostly on the northern side.

Given the current rate of intensification Ida could conceivably approach MH status at LF on western Cuba. I think 80–90 kt/970–975 mb seems quite likely, given the observed rate of deepening and organisation observed by radar, satellite, and reconnaissance. Ida’s current track, along with its relocated centre, would minimise interaction with the Isla de la Juventud and would maximise the storm’s time over the Gulf of Batabanó prior to landfall on the Cuban mainland. If I recall correctly, the most aggressive model run to date only suggested that Ida would approach ~70 kt/~985 mb at landfall on western Cuba. Ida currently looks to be at least 10 kt/mb stronger than that by the time it impacts western Cuba.

Camille

But Camille went east of New Orleans, although wow. The track is eerily similar other than that!

I am growing increasingly concerned that Ida could take a track similar to the 1947 hurricane or Betsy but feature a LF intensity comparable to Michael’s.

Before Cuba? That seems pretty fast. I'm a lot more hesitant. My general belief is that before TCs build a really mature structure (closed eyewall, symmetry, etc.), intensification tends to be very nonlinear and come in jumps and pauses. Sure Ida's pressure dropped a lot between the last two passes, but it was also constant between the first two passes (~1.5 hr gap). And last year, I remember Sally also put on a big drop in pressure to a strong TS/weak hurricane before flatlining for a long time while it sorted itself structurally. That drop, like this one, was the result of a center reformation towards some intense hot towers.

That said, Ida is definitely in a better position than Sally (which I'm using to illustrate my jumps/pauses point, not as an analogy for this situation). Clearly Ida is working to rapidly build an eyewall right now. It may not drop pressure much or increase winds while it does this, but it is an important step in intensification that sets the scene for serious RI in the Gulf.

If Ida does build an inner core quickly, I could see something in the range of 70 kt/980 mb, maybe 75 kt. Otherwise thinking 65 kt/985 mb.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Ida might even begin to clear an eye before hitting Cuba. unlikely but possible.

That is why there is an Eye Watch and not a Warning

[capNstorms]

man look at that convection going on along the Texas and Louisiana coast

[skyline385]

Look at those cloud tops

[Visioen]

https://imgur.com/DFT5p20

I just realized your name tolakram backwards is markalot. cool. aside from that note Ida has a good chance (more than 50%) IMO of a cat 3 landfall. they need to evacuate now.

I agree, with the other ~50% being even stronger

[Tireman4]

man look at that convection going on along the Texas and Louisiana coast

I think it is this...from HGX NWS..

An inverted trough,
currently located offshore just east of Galveston Island will
continue to move inland this morning.

[kevin]

Has there been any recent post by wxman57? He's probably extremely busy right now, but I was just wondering whether he had recently given his thoughts on Ida's rapid strengthening.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

I think NOAA's sites are working again, at least the ones I use for data on my site. NHC's ATCF system is available through https and ftp:
https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/
ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/
(FTP links don't work any longer in some browsers)

The FTP site wasn't working for me a little bit ago but is now.

Recon data from earlier completed NOAA mission seems to have come across the normal way as well, so I think things are working again at the moment.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Cuban radar seems to look like it might clip the east side of the Isle of Youth

http://www.insmet.cu/asp/genesis.asp?TB ... AXw01a.gif

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1431289712229109764

[grapealcoholic]

Juventud is tightening up the core through frictional convergence. Feel like this thing might keep strengthening over Cuba

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1431292867604058114

[cheezyWXguy]

Definitely seems like there was a bit of a reformation/snap of the center towards the deeper convection, which was (and still is) mostly on the northern side.

Given the current rate of intensification Ida could conceivably approach MH status at LF on western Cuba. I think 80–90 kt/970–975 mb seems quite likely, given the observed rate of deepening and organisation observed by radar, satellite, and reconnaissance. Ida’s current track, along with its relocated centre, would minimise interaction with the Isla de la Juventud and would maximise the storm’s time over the Gulf of Batabanó prior to landfall on the Cuban mainland. If I recall correctly, the most aggressive model run to date only suggested that Ida would approach ~70 kt/~985 mb at landfall on western Cuba. Ida currently looks to be at least 10 kt/mb stronger than that by the time it impacts western Cuba.

But Camille went east of New Orleans, although wow. The track is eerily similar other than that!

I am growing increasingly concerned that Ida could take a track similar to the 1947 hurricane or Betsy but feature a LF intensity comparable to Michael’s.

Before Cuba? That seems pretty fast. I'm a lot more hesitant. My general belief is that before TCs build a really mature structure (closed eyewall, symmetry, etc.), intensification tends to be very nonlinear and come in jumps and pauses. Sure Ida's pressure dropped a lot between the last two passes, but it was also constant between the first two passes (~1.5 hr gap). And last year, I remember Sally also put on a big drop in pressure to a strong TS/weak hurricane before flatlining for a long time while it sorted itself structurally. That drop, like this one, was the result of a center reformation towards some intense hot towers.

That said, Ida is definitely in a better position than Sally (which I'm using to illustrate my jumps/pauses point, not as an analogy for this situation). Clearly Ida is working to rapidly build an eyewall right now. It may not drop pressure much or increase winds while it does this, but it is an important step in intensification that sets the scene for serious RI in the Gulf.

If Ida does build an inner core quickly, I could see something in the range of 70 kt/980 mb, maybe 75 kt. Otherwise thinking 65 kt/985 mb.

I hate to say it, but I think it’s going to be closer to the upper range of your estimate. The CDO has rapidly matured and key west radar depicts a structure to match. There’s a decent chance imo that this is a hurricane already.

[Craters]

10 minutes ago people were discussing the storm going east of juventud lol

Still looking like it will go over the east end of the island.

http://tropicwatch.info/eyewall.gif

Just out of curiosity, what altitude are those radar returns coming from and what's the current position of the mid-level CoC relative to the LL CoC? Is it stacked yet?

[Kohlecane]

I can't ... this person just posted in a forum on FB that NOAA is "weather seeding" to create a super hurricane and that's why data was unavailable
Otherwise in the realm of current situation that was quite impressive watching IDA strengthen in that period of time with Recon in there. Glad it's Friday because watching this come of Cuba is when things will become very interesting IMO, also to whoever suggested TS watches for the keys, I think that would make sense ATM but far W keys probably will experience some decent bands skirting through. Then again I should probably just go pull the radar and see myself

[Maryellen46]

When they will start ordering evacuations for New Orleans and SE Louisiana?

[skyline385]

CDO expanding

[tropicwatch]

Has there been any recent post by wxman57? He's probably extremely busy right now, but I was just wondering whether he had recently given his thoughts on Ida's rapid strengthening.

Haven't heard much out of Mr. Dunn either