ATL: NICHOLAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Frank P]

Latest radar still of Nicholas as it heads off to the east… not sure if this is just a temporary motion or not.. regardless, for it to hug the coast line certainly might exacerbate the rainfall totals for LA… I remember when Alison went back into the gulf after flooding Houston, we got some pretty good gusts from her over in Biloxi…

[loon]

I was about to post the same thing…..it must be
a radar illusion right?

Radar eyes are messing with me again this morning, i swear that spin is heading back into the GOM, i know some models predicted maybe that would happen. *bears watching* I guess. got about 4" of rain here in downtown, 35.2 MPH winds sustained at peak.

You two beat me by a few minutes!

https://i.imgur.com/9hFR0y7.gif

and loon and stormcenter were just ignored completely! I SEE HOW IT IS!! hahahah

[lisa0825]

Same people that said tropical storm Michael that turned into a Cat 5

Where have you been?

I said yesterday, there's no doubt in my mind that if shear hadn't been there, this system could have been a major, at least a Cat 3. We got very lucky in Houston.

About the same thing Eric Berger at Space City Weather said:
https://spacecityweather.com/it-may-not ... -nicholas/

So this morning I’m thinking about what would have happened if we had not had some wind shear over the western Gulf of Mexico yesterday, or if Nicholas had been able to consolidate a more well defined and consistent center of circulation. It would have been much, much worse for all of us had a significantly stronger hurricane made landfall last night. So while we pick up the pieces this morning, realize Nicholas could have been much more of a terror.

I tell ya what, we'd have been SOL because no one around here (Galveston County) was boarded up or remotely prepared for a stronger storm, myself included.

[Craters]

If you're looking for information about power outages, try this site:

https://poweroutage.us/

Click on your state of choice. The info is kind of coarse, but it might help answer some questions you might have, at least...

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1437841381196709890

[LARanger]

{Louisiana} gonna be a swamp in the coming days

Of course, the problem is, "swamp" is our everyday *starting point*. Add in ridiculous flatness such that water drainage never achieves much velocity (allowing 'pile-up' a la 2016), factor in our reliance on the Gulf for output (potentially nullified in surge conditions), and it doesn't take much to overwhelm the works.

[jasons2k]

It’s been breezy here. Yard covered is leaves and pine needles but nothing too crazy. Only 1.47” here since midnight. I’ve had many summertime thunderstorms with more rain than that.

[wicked_wx_watcher]

I was about to post the same thing…..it must be
a radar illusion right?

Radar eyes are messing with me again this morning, i swear that spin is heading back into the GOM, i know some models predicted maybe that would happen. *bears watching* I guess. got about 4" of rain here in downtown, 35.2 MPH winds sustained at peak.

You two beat me by a few minutes!

https://i.imgur.com/9hFR0y7.gif

and loon and stormcenter were just ignored completely! I SEE HOW IT IS!! hahahah

Two hours ago we were on the NNE of remnants of the eye wall. It’s raining again, checked the radar and we’re on the west side now. Radar now places the eye almost over Galveston. Looks like it’s heading back to the gulf.

[jasons2k]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1437841381196709890

The winds from Rita were much worse than this - at least up here in Southern Montgomery County. We had lots of downed trees in the neighborhood after Rita - not this time.

[capNstorms]

This thing is creeping back in the gulf and stalling like the icon was showing it would

[CypressMike]

Nevermind. I misread the tweet I had quoted. I guess the wind kept me up too much last night.

[Steve]

This thing is creeping back in the gulf and stalling like the icon was showing it would

ICON has shown some value the last couple seasons - at times.

[Steve]

Nevermind. I misread the tweet I had quoted. I guess the wind kept me up too much last night.

He is a badass professional. Yaakov is the best research met on the site that I know of. I do agree on the wind issue.

[underthwx]

No power here in my area....about 18 minutes from Sargent Texas.....somehow I have wifi ATM....got a power line and poles down in the front yard....trees down everywhere....but all s good other than that....last night was rockin and rolling for sure....be safe all...

[Sciencerocks]

[CypressMike]

Nevermind. I misread the tweet I had quoted. I guess the wind kept me up too much last night.

He is a badass professional. Yaakov is the best research met on the site that I know of. I do agree on the wind issue.

I know - that's why I immediately edited my post once I re-read his tweet. I thought he had left Ike completely off the list, but it was my dumb mistake for sleep-reading it!

[Steve]

Nevermind. I misread the tweet I had quoted. I guess the wind kept me up too much last night.

He is a badass professional. Yaakov is the best research met on the site that I know of. I do agree on the wind issue.

I know - that's why I immediately edited my post once I re-read his tweet. I thought he had left Ike completely off the list, but it was my dumb mistake for sleep-reading it!

Word. We all lose sleep every year there are threats. I’m about to take a nap so I can be up for the next several bands that find their way to New Orleans.

[jconsor]

Thanks for your comments on Rita! I had not considered Rita in depth when posting the initial tweet. I updated my Tweet thread to reflect Rita in comparison to Nicholas.

It's important to emphasize that my assessment of most severe hurricane impacts reflects the portion of the Houston metro area that is closer to the coast, mainly Galveston, Brazoria, Harris and Fort Bend counties.

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1437841381196709890

The winds from Rita were much worse than this - at least up here in Southern Montgomery County. We had lots of downed trees in the neighborhood after Rita - not this time.

[Stormcenter]

As the center nears the Gulf convection has started to
increase a little.

[Stormgodess]

Hey guys *hugs*

Due to Ida, Im back to having horrible internet/cell service. Cant get any of the images and maps to work...

Is Nicholas possibly going back out into the gulf? What are the steering factors going on right now.



And can anyone tell me if NWS takes into account Treefall debris along waterways, when they do their Hydrologic river predictions?