ATL: FRED - Models

[tolakram]

GFS a bit further south this run so far.

[tolakram]

12Z GFS tracks over mostly land, but what's left looks to make it into the gulf.

[tolakram]

[gatorcane]

The GFS, as well as the other globals models show a hostile upper environment due to the ULL near Florida as 94l moves west through the Bahamas or Antilles. It does appear the upper environment becomes somewhat more favorable once 94l is past South Florida and in the EGOM on the GFS:

[tolakram]

Weak and meandering onshore.

[tolakram]

The GFS, as well as the other globals models show a hostile upper environment due to the ULL near Florida as 94l moves west through the Bahamas or Antilles. It does appear the upper environment becomes somewhat more favorable once 94l is past South Florida and in the EGOM on the GFS:

https://i.postimg.cc/bvH5V687/gfs-shear-watl-fh42-150.gif

Bastardi is pointing out the horrible track record models have when the MJO moves into phase II. I like his pattern matching so I'm paying attention. I still don't think this storm does much, but we'll see.

[SFLcane]

Based on some of the models it’s toast past 70w. Maybe a brief window to intensify a little bit.

[gatorcane]

Southeast Florida is very difficult to hit (I know people think otherwise, but it's protected by the Islands). A track just north of the Hispaniola and a ridge in just the right place to stop a recurve, but weak enough to still send it NE is the equation needed. I don't think we'll know for sure until just a few days out. This is why everyone should already be prepared prior to the start of the season.

Agreed it is very difficult. I think Broward County, where Fort Lauderdale is located has never seen a major hurricane landfall from the east. South Florida is more vulnerable from hits from the south with storms recurving north than NE out of the Caribbean which makes lates season, particular October, South Florida’s most vulnerable month for a cyclone hit which many may not know either.

[SoupBone]

https://i.imgur.com/9QHHHu4.png

That's a huge shift west from the 06Z run.

[tolakram]

CMC keeps it north and while not strong, it's not torn apart like the GFS shows.

[tolakram]

CMC landfall, very close to the GFS.

[AtlanticWind]

Southeast Florida is very difficult to hit (I know people think otherwise, but it's protected by the Islands). A track just north of the Hispaniola and a ridge in just the right place to stop a recurve, but weak enough to still send it NE is the equation needed. I don't think we'll know for sure until just a few days out. This is why everyone should already be prepared prior to the start of the season.

Agreed it is very difficult. I think Broward County, where Fort Lauderdale is located has never seen a major hurricane landfall from the east. South Florida is more vulnerable from hits from the south with storms recurving north than NE out of the Caribbean which makes lates season, particular October, South Florida’s most vulnerable month for a cyclone hit which many may not know either.

1947 Cat 4 , Major Cape Verde storm hit Ft Lauderdale

[BobHarlem]

The 12z HWRF never really gets 94L going, even though it only barely clips the islands. The HMON isn't even coherent.

[jlauderdal]

Southeast Florida is very difficult to hit (I know people think otherwise, but it's protected by the Islands). A track just north of the Hispaniola and a ridge in just the right place to stop a recurve, but weak enough to still send it NE is the equation needed. I don't think we'll know for sure until just a few days out. This is why everyone should already be prepared prior to the start of the season.

Agreed it is very difficult. I think Broward County, where Fort Lauderdale is located has never seen a major hurricane landfall from the east. South Florida is more vulnerable from hits from the south with storms recurving north than NE out of the Caribbean which makes lates season, particular October, South Florida’s most vulnerable month for a cyclone hit which many may not know either.

1947 Cat 4 , Major Cape Verde storm hit Ft Lauderdale

We get a bunch of majors hitting us on the model maps and majors heading right at us and getting close in the Bahamas only to never make it, the stars have to align to get a direct hit here.

[SFLcane]

The 12z HWRF never really gets 94L going, even though it only barely clips the islands. The HMON isn't even coherent.

[SFLcane]

Agreed it is very difficult. I think Broward County, where Fort Lauderdale is located has never seen a major hurricane landfall from the east. South Florida is more vulnerable from hits from the south with storms recurving north than NE out of the Caribbean which makes lates season, particular October, South Florida’s most vulnerable month for a cyclone hit which many may not know either.

1947 Cat 4 , Major Cape Verde storm hit Ft Lauderdale

We get a bunch of majors hitting us on the model maps and majors heading right at us and getting close in the Bahamas only to never make it, the stars have to align to get a direct hit here.

Hits like those are extremely extremely rare coming from the Caribbean you have the islands protecting you and coming north of the islands the ridge has be in a perfect orientation to allow such path. Off course upper level conditions play a role which This go around are extremely hostile. Like I said past 70w this thing will struggle

[Hypercane_Kyle]

12z HWRF keeps the system a tropical cyclone, but very weak. Getting absolutely slammed with shear in the Bahamas.

[Blown Away]

12z EURO 48 Hours... Through PR and appears N of Hispaniola...

[aspen]

12z HWRF has shifted further north, and 94L starts to re-develop near Florida after crossing over the DR. It also looks to begin recurving by 120hr.

[SFLcane]