ATL: GRACE - Remnants - Discussion

[SFLcane]

It’s also being blasted by Easterly shear. Could remove cloths lol

[aspen]

I think I can see the eastern edge of a compact LLC. Shear is high but if this is already developing/developed, it’ll have a better shot of surviving to the western MDR where shear is lower.

[Hurricane Mike]

Here's a 12pm Video update. I'm much more interested in 95L this morning than disorganized Fred.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=umbtacD0Ok8

[Sciencerocks]

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/jacksillin/status/1425805829958037505




 https://twitter.com/jacksillin/status/1425806701681254401




 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1425816480789123078




 https://twitter.com/derekortt/status/1425848035821686784

[cycloneye]

Updated 12z Best Track up to 30kt.

95L INVEST 210812 1200 14.2N 41.2W ATL 30 1010

[InfernoFlameCat]

I expect a cherry at 2:00. 70/80 is my guess

[Stormybajan]

It’s also being blasted by Easterly shear. Could remove cloths lol

Wouldve thought shear was decreasing by now but look like the easterly shear is moving in motion with 95L. Wouldnt surprise me if it gets designated as a tropical depression tomorrow but it has some work to do still. Hard to tell if the southern side is completely dead or not

[InfernoFlameCat]

Right now, Invest 95L is more intense than Fred.

[tolakram]

Tropical Tidbits, keyed to start at the discussion of 95L

https://youtu.be/7JXGQVvhCNc?t=486

[Shell Mound]

Models continue to show a lot of TUTT activity over the Sargasso Sea and western North Atlantic, so 95L is likely to encounter westerly shear near the islands:

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1425819126530904072

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1425849010552721416



 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1425850350708330501



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1425851046753095681

[abajan]

Up to 60/70.

[cycloneye]

Satellite-derived wind data from this morning indicated that a
small area of low pressure has developed along a tropical wave
about 1200 miles east of the Lesser Antilles. However, the low
does not quite have a closed circulation, and the associated shower
and thunderstorm activity remains disorganized. Environmental
conditions are expected to become more conducive for additional
development, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the
weekend while moving generally westward at about 20 mph across the
tropical Atlantic. This system is expected to reach portions of the
Leeward Islands late Saturday or early Sunday, and interests there
should monitor its progress.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[InfernoFlameCat]

60/70

[captainbarbossa19]

Models continue to show a lot of TUTT activity over the Sargasso Sea and western North Atlantic, so 95L is likely to encounter westerly shear near the islands:

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1425819126530904072
https://i.ibb.co/jVFfqTy/TUTT-1.png

I am not ready to jump on a weak or strong bandwagon yet. The models have been performing horribly in the EPAC with intensity. Every storm they have shown to be a powerful hurricane is turning out to be a strong tropical storm or weak hurricane. Last year, they were often way off on intensity in the Atlantic showing weak storms when in reality, they were much stronger. Either way, I do not trust the models.

[AutoPenalti]

Highly doubt it will die off, as Levi pointed out, shear will begin to relax as it approaches the Greater Antilles.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1425875719163457538




 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1425876543172132866




I really wish Derek would post here again. !!

[aspen]

Highly doubt it will die off, as Levi pointed out, shear will begin to relax as it approaches the Greater Antilles.

Seems like there’s an anticyclone near the NE Lesser Antilles on the GFS, so if 95L goes a little further north, it could get right under that and be under even less shear.

[gatorcane]

Both the Euro and GFS are not really enthusiastic over the next 5 days (nor do any of the globals). Conditions do not appear favorable for significant development at this time as it heads through or just north of the Lesser Antilles. Perhaps something weak is possible but nothing of concern at this time.