ATL: HENRI - Models

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Re: ATL: HENRI - Models

#121 Postby ColdMiser123 » Wed Aug 18, 2021 10:53 pm

Everything about the trends compared to 18z points to this being another landfalling run.
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Models

#122 Postby IcyTundra » Wed Aug 18, 2021 11:07 pm

00Z GFS looks like a Cape Cod landfall.
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Models

#123 Postby ColdMiser123 » Wed Aug 18, 2021 11:09 pm

TROPICAL STORM HENRI ANALYSED POSITION : 29.7N 68.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.08.2021 0 29.7N 68.2W 999 50
1200UTC 19.08.2021 12 29.5N 70.6W 984 64
0000UTC 20.08.2021 24 29.4N 72.7W 978 74
1200UTC 20.08.2021 36 29.7N 74.3W 977 66
0000UTC 21.08.2021 48 30.6N 74.7W 974 73
1200UTC 21.08.2021 60 32.7N 73.9W 967 79
0000UTC 22.08.2021 72 36.1N 72.4W 958 85
1200UTC 22.08.2021 84 39.9N 71.5W 958 81
0000UTC 23.08.2021 96 42.0N 72.0W 984 44
1200UTC 23.08.2021 108 43.0N 72.4W 1001 25
0000UTC 24.08.2021 120 43.2N 71.8W 1005 19
1200UTC 24.08.2021 132 43.8N 69.4W 1007 19
0000UTC 25.08.2021 144 CEASED TRACKING

UKMET landfalls in eastern Connecticut.
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Models

#124 Postby crownweather » Wed Aug 18, 2021 11:24 pm

Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:The latest ICON run reminds me of Esther 1961.

Fun fact, Esther played a role in the infamous alleged Betty and Barney Hill UFO incident.


Yes, it did. If I remember correctly (from reading about the case), the Hills rushed back to Portsmouth, NH from their honeymoon in Quebec City because of the warnings about Hurricane Esther.
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Models

#125 Postby AJC3 » Wed Aug 18, 2021 11:41 pm

ColdMiser123 wrote:TROPICAL STORM HENRI ANALYSED POSITION : 29.7N 68.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.08.2021 0 29.7N 68.2W 999 50
1200UTC 19.08.2021 12 29.5N 70.6W 984 64
0000UTC 20.08.2021 24 29.4N 72.7W 978 74
1200UTC 20.08.2021 36 29.7N 74.3W 977 66
0000UTC 21.08.2021 48 30.6N 74.7W 974 73
1200UTC 21.08.2021 60 32.7N 73.9W 967 79
0000UTC 22.08.2021 72 36.1N 72.4W 958 85
1200UTC 22.08.2021 84 39.9N 71.5W 958 81
0000UTC 23.08.2021 96 42.0N 72.0W 984 44
1200UTC 23.08.2021 108 43.0N 72.4W 1001 25
0000UTC 24.08.2021 120 43.2N 71.8W 1005 19
1200UTC 24.08.2021 132 43.8N 69.4W 1007 19
0000UTC 25.08.2021 144 CEASED TRACKING

UKMET landfalls in eastern Connecticut.



Does it actually miss Montauk Point Light? If so, it's only by a couple miles.
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Models

#126 Postby ColdMiser123 » Wed Aug 18, 2021 11:47 pm

AJC3 wrote:
ColdMiser123 wrote:TROPICAL STORM HENRI ANALYSED POSITION : 29.7N 68.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.08.2021 0 29.7N 68.2W 999 50
1200UTC 19.08.2021 12 29.5N 70.6W 984 64
0000UTC 20.08.2021 24 29.4N 72.7W 978 74
1200UTC 20.08.2021 36 29.7N 74.3W 977 66
0000UTC 21.08.2021 48 30.6N 74.7W 974 73
1200UTC 21.08.2021 60 32.7N 73.9W 967 79
0000UTC 22.08.2021 72 36.1N 72.4W 958 85
1200UTC 22.08.2021 84 39.9N 71.5W 958 81
0000UTC 23.08.2021 96 42.0N 72.0W 984 44
1200UTC 23.08.2021 108 43.0N 72.4W 1001 25
0000UTC 24.08.2021 120 43.2N 71.8W 1005 19
1200UTC 24.08.2021 132 43.8N 69.4W 1007 19
0000UTC 25.08.2021 144 CEASED TRACKING

UKMET landfalls in eastern Connecticut.



Does it actually miss Montauk Point Light? If so, it's only by a couple miles.


Looks to be just east, UKMET Pivotal Weather maps confirm this.
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Models

#127 Postby IcyTundra » Wed Aug 18, 2021 11:51 pm

Yeah UKMET looks like an East Connecticut or Rhode Island landfall.
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Models

#128 Postby Woofde » Wed Aug 18, 2021 11:57 pm

Potentially the first major of the season, and it may be heading to New England of all places...ImageImage
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Models

#129 Postby AJC3 » Wed Aug 18, 2021 11:59 pm

ColdMiser123 wrote:
AJC3 wrote:
ColdMiser123 wrote:TROPICAL STORM HENRI ANALYSED POSITION : 29.7N 68.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.08.2021 0 29.7N 68.2W 999 50
1200UTC 19.08.2021 12 29.5N 70.6W 984 64
0000UTC 20.08.2021 24 29.4N 72.7W 978 74
1200UTC 20.08.2021 36 29.7N 74.3W 977 66
0000UTC 21.08.2021 48 30.6N 74.7W 974 73
1200UTC 21.08.2021 60 32.7N 73.9W 967 79
0000UTC 22.08.2021 72 36.1N 72.4W 958 85
1200UTC 22.08.2021 84 39.9N 71.5W 958 81
0000UTC 23.08.2021 96 42.0N 72.0W 984 44
1200UTC 23.08.2021 108 43.0N 72.4W 1001 25
0000UTC 24.08.2021 120 43.2N 71.8W 1005 19
1200UTC 24.08.2021 132 43.8N 69.4W 1007 19
0000UTC 25.08.2021 144 CEASED TRACKING

UKMET landfalls in eastern Connecticut.



Does it actually miss Montauk Point Light? If so, it's only by a couple miles.


Looks to be just east, UKMET Pivotal Weather maps confirm this.


Just plotted it up on AWIPS. Sure enough....in the words of the immortal Bob Uecker, "JUUUUUUUST a bit outside!" Misses the point by all of 3 miles.

Image
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Models

#130 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Thu Aug 19, 2021 12:01 am

ColdMiser123 wrote:TROPICAL STORM HENRI ANALYSED POSITION : 29.7N 68.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.08.2021 0 29.7N 68.2W 999 50
1200UTC 19.08.2021 12 29.5N 70.6W 984 64
0000UTC 20.08.2021 24 29.4N 72.7W 978 74
1200UTC 20.08.2021 36 29.7N 74.3W 977 66
0000UTC 21.08.2021 48 30.6N 74.7W 974 73
1200UTC 21.08.2021 60 32.7N 73.9W 967 79
0000UTC 22.08.2021 72 36.1N 72.4W 958 85
1200UTC 22.08.2021 84 39.9N 71.5W 958 81
0000UTC 23.08.2021 96 42.0N 72.0W 984 44
1200UTC 23.08.2021 108 43.0N 72.4W 1001 25
0000UTC 24.08.2021 120 43.2N 71.8W 1005 19
1200UTC 24.08.2021 132 43.8N 69.4W 1007 19
0000UTC 25.08.2021 144 CEASED TRACKING

UKMET landfalls in eastern Connecticut.

that's a little alarming.
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Models

#131 Postby Kohlecane » Thu Aug 19, 2021 4:54 am

AJC3 wrote:
ColdMiser123 wrote:TROPICAL STORM HENRI ANALYSED POSITION : 29.7N 68.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL082021

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 19.08.2021 0 29.7N 68.2W 999 50
1200UTC 19.08.2021 12 29.5N 70.6W 984 64
0000UTC 20.08.2021 24 29.4N 72.7W 978 74
1200UTC 20.08.2021 36 29.7N 74.3W 977 66
0000UTC 21.08.2021 48 30.6N 74.7W 974 73
1200UTC 21.08.2021 60 32.7N 73.9W 967 79
0000UTC 22.08.2021 72 36.1N 72.4W 958 85
1200UTC 22.08.2021 84 39.9N 71.5W 958 81
0000UTC 23.08.2021 96 42.0N 72.0W 984 44
1200UTC 23.08.2021 108 43.0N 72.4W 1001 25
0000UTC 24.08.2021 120 43.2N 71.8W 1005 19
1200UTC 24.08.2021 132 43.8N 69.4W 1007 19
0000UTC 25.08.2021 144 CEASED TRACKING

UKMET landfalls in eastern Connecticut.



Does it actually miss Montauk Point Light? If so, it's only by a couple miles.

By about 2mi brings it between Stonington, CT - Westerly, RI
EDIT: Sorry AJC3 just logged on saw that you plotted it :D
Also I wonder if now is the time to start syncing timing with tides given the full moon as well, That approach from the UKMET would push water into the LI sound, And also I might add that it seems the initialize was better in some of the 0Z minus the Euro again :roll: seems that these models give pretty good focus between Southhampton - Cape Cod as a decent Cat 1 ...
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Models

#132 Postby kevin » Thu Aug 19, 2021 5:15 am

06z GFS once again very strong, showing a peak of 954 mb (so a potential MH), followed by a 970/978 mb Massachusetts landfall before it recurves.
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Models

#133 Postby Hammy » Thu Aug 19, 2021 5:19 am

If the GFS plays out, would that be the first hurricane landfall in Massachusetts since 1954?
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Models

#134 Postby kevin » Thu Aug 19, 2021 5:26 am

Hammy wrote:If the GFS plays out, would that be the first hurricane landfall in Massachusetts since 1954?


Yep, only in 1869, 1879, 1888, 1896 and 1956 (Edna) did a TS make landfall at hurricane strength in Massachusetts and none have ever made landfall as a major hurricane. However, in total 14 tropical storms passed over Massachusetts at hurricane strength. This latter figure also includes hurricane Bob as well as 3 hurricanes (1869, 1938, and Carol in 1954) that were a cat 3 while passing over the state. However, in practice if this forecast actually verifies this will be the first Massachusetts hurricane since 1991 and thus for many residents the first hurricane threat in their lifetime or as far as they can remember.

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Re: ATL: HENRI - Models

#135 Postby Nimbus » Thu Aug 19, 2021 5:46 am

The official track is still off Cape cod as a tropical storm.
There has been a lot of infrastructure built up along the water front since the last hurricane.
We shouldn't jump on just a single model run, but it does bring home the risks.
Local planners might treat this as a necessary drill.
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Models

#136 Postby BobHarlem » Thu Aug 19, 2021 5:55 am

6z gfs
Image
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Models

#137 Postby Nimbus » Thu Aug 19, 2021 6:09 am

crownweather wrote:
Hybridstorm_November2001 wrote:The latest ICON run reminds me of Esther 1961.

Fun fact, Esther played a role in the infamous alleged Betty and Barney Hill UFO incident.


Yes, it did. If I remember correctly (from reading about the case), the Hills rushed back to Portsmouth, NH from their honeymoon in Quebec City because of the warnings about Hurricane Esther.



Do you really want to know?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=hAAlDoAtV7Y
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Re: ATL: HENRI - Models

#138 Postby BobHarlem » Thu Aug 19, 2021 7:13 am

6z hmon, no landfall, clips Nantucket though. (shift right)
6z hwrf, Martha's Vineyard then stalls in Eastern Mass. (Shift left)

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Re: ATL: HENRI - Models

#139 Postby TheDreamTraveler » Thu Aug 19, 2021 7:20 am

Euro is really jumping aboard finally. It's kinda funny just how terribly its been performing the entire time with this storm. There's many who were holding off on a landfall or any impacts because of it barely showing anything

These significant changes were always going to present themselves in the shortterm due to the odd circumstances Henri is in right now where if it can maintain its strength or get stronger that it can get further west

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1428307375404961798


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Re: ATL: HENRI - Models

#140 Postby Kohlecane » Thu Aug 19, 2021 7:28 am

will be nice to get recon there, based of guidance the closer it gets to 29N the more west the tracks take it.
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