WPAC: CHANTHU - Post-Tropical

[mrbagyo]

Eye has fully cleared, color of the ocean is now visible through that tiny eye

[Hayabusa]

2021SEP07 224000 5.4 958.0 99.6 5.4 5.7 5.7 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF -11.08 -69.44 EYE 6 IR 41.2 16.04 -132.58 ARCHER HIM-8 21.0
2021SEP07 231000 5.4 957.9 99.6 5.3 4.8 3.9 0.5T/hour ON OFF OFF OFF -69.53 -60.32 UNIFRM N/A 41.2 16.29 -132.65 FCST HIM-8 21.2
2021SEP07 234000 5.4 957.9 99.6 5.3 4.8 3.2 1.2T/12hr ON OFF OFF OFF -69.94 -58.11 IRRCDO N/A 29.6 16.29 -132.58 FCST HIM-8 21.3
2021SEP08 001000 5.4 958.1 99.6 5.1 4.7 4.2 1.2T/12hr ON OFF OFF OFF -66.76 -64.93 UNIFRM N/A 29.6 15.69 -132.65 ARCHER HIM-8 20.6

[aspen]

This is probably 130 kt at a minimum and 145 kt at the maximum. The CDO is too ragged and not deep enough for me to think this is anything on the level of Wilma or Hagibis. Having recon data would help, but pinholes are so rare in the region where recon is readily available that there’s so little data to go off of as a comparison.

Using Delta as a comparison, I’m going to guess that Chanthu had a massive pressure drop around 11am-2pm EST, but the pressure leveled out from 2-6pm EST to let the winds catch up, like how Delta stair-stepped down to a pinhole Cat 4. This time frame was when the eye stopped warming. Once the winds caught up an hour or so ago, the storm began deepening again and the eye cleared, despite shear squashing the NW side.

[Yellow Evan]

Nearing T7.5.

[aspen]

163kt from CIRA’s experimental satellite estimates
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/t ... 2109080000

[Hayabusa]

163kt from CIRA’s experimental satellite estimates
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/t ... 2109080000

We really need an smap reading

[Ntxw]

These storms that take the southwest dip usually go really big. I wouldn't doubt we have 140kts+ soon.

[mrbagyo]

Nepartak-ish

[Sciencerocks]

looks like a cat5

[ElectricStorm]

I just cannot fathom how this could even possibly be only 120kts. Looks like a Cat 5 to me. 135kts at the very minimum

[Yellow Evan]

TPPN11 PGTW 080325

A. TYPHOON 19W (CHANTHU)

B. 08/0300Z

C. 15.81N

D. 131.77E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T6.5/6.5/D3.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 07A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD
A DT OF 6.5. MET YIELDS A 5.5 AND PT YIELDS A 6.0. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


BERMEA

Eye was WMG at 3z frame.

[ElectricStorm]

-80C tops expanding to the east and north a bit so the light shear from earlier might be lessening. Not like it had much effect on it anyway

[ElectricStorm]

Eye contracting a bit at the end of the loop. One of the smallest eyes I've ever seen. Amazing storm

[dexterlabio]

I believe the SW dive cannot be attributed to fujiwara interaction with Conson, but rather the strength of the subtropical ridge to its north. Intense typhoons diving SW is a classic sight during La Niña years.

[mrbagyo]

00z GFS dips it further south and west - now showing a potential landfall in extreme northern tip of Luzon

[Ed_2001]

Eye has cooled back down and cdo looks to be expanding. EWRC coming soon?

[Stormybajan]

looks like a cat5

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img922/126/cytpS5.gif

IMO Chanthu is one of the rare typhoons/hurricanes that look better on IR than on visible. Very unique look, I hope one a picture of Chanthu is placed in the Best Sat Photos of Alltime thread ..if its not Cat 5 intensity then its very close at around 130-135 knots.

[ElectricStorm]

Eye is extremely small now and there appears to be a moat on IR so it looks to me like an ERC is about to happen, but we'll need a microwave pass to confirm. I personally would say it peaked at ~140kts a couple hours ago. It should have time to intensify again after the ERC.

Also that's quite the SW dive there, northern Luzon might be in play

[mrbagyo]

Eye is extremely small now and there appears to be a moat on IR so it looks to me like an ERC is about to happen, but we'll need a microwave pass to confirm. I personally would say it peaked at ~140kts a couple hours ago. It should have time to intensify again after the ERC.

Also that's quite the SW dive there, northern Luzon might be in play

latest microwave pass (& there would be 2 more pass later- 0732 & 0746z)

[Subtrop]

19W CHANTHU 210908 0600 15.6N 131.3E WPAC 140 922