EPAC: OLAF - Post-Tropical

[grapealcoholic]

A lot of webcams in Cabo as well

[Yellow Evan]

NHC needs to do a better job with Recon planning in this basin. They only seem to send it when there’s a long term hurricane threat and not short term cases like Olaf.

[Kingarabian]

NHC needs to do a better job with Recon planning in this basin. They only seem to send it when there’s a long term hurricane threat and not short term cases like Olaf.

Yeah at the rate this is going, it might be a major hurricane landfall. Would be nice to have recon here. MPHI supports all the way up to Cat.5. If this finds the time, we could see Cat.3/Cat.4 landfall although none of the guidance shows this.

[grapealcoholic]

They went with 80 kts

[Kingarabian]

They went with 80 kts

Should have a GMI and an AMSR2 pass in the next 2-3 hours. That will tell a lot. It's looking a lot better on visible imagery vs. BD/AVN imagery. The NHC is doing intermediate advisories so they can do updates quicker if necessary.

[grapealcoholic]

Does anyone have a link to the Cabo weather radar they have been mentioning in the discussions?

[Kingarabian]

Calling for a Cat.2 landfall:

WTPZ45 KNHC 092046
TCDEP5

Hurricane Olaf Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152021
300 PM MDT Thu Sep 09 2021

Olaf is quickly strengthening. An eye is now apparent in visible and
satellite imagery. For most of the morning and early afternoon, a
large and very symmetric eyewall was also apparent in radar data
from Cabo San Lucas. Dvorak intensity estimates at 1800 UTC were
4.5/77 kt from both TAFB and SAB at 1800 UTC, and estimates from the
U-W CIMSS ADT have increased to 80 kt since then. The initial
intensity has been set at 80 kt, in close agreement with all
available estimates.

Olaf has moved consistently to the right of the forecast track for
the past 12 hours, and the NHC track forecast has been shifted in
that direction again. Olaf is now forecast to move very near or over
southern Baja California Sur tonight. Regardless of the hurricane's
exact track, it is very likely that a portions of southern Baja
California Sur will get direct impacts from the eyewall of Olaf
tonight. A large ridge centered over the southwestern U.S. is still
expected to cause Olaf to make a slight turn toward the northwest
tonight or early Friday. The hurricane should then make a westward
turn by early Saturday as it weakens and the ridge extends westward.
Despite the recent adjustments required to the NHC forecast, this
forecast is still generally supported by all of the
typically-reliable track guidance. By around 60 h, Olaf will likely
have lost all of its deep convection and become a shallow
post-tropical low, steered primarily southwestward by low-level
flow.

The environment should support additional intensification during the
next 12 h as Olaf approaches the Baja California peninsula, so any
fluctuations in intensity will likely be driven by internal dynamics
at this point. The appearance of Olaf's eyewall in radar imagery has
degraded a little during the past couple of hours, but it is
possible this is due to attenuation of the radar signal and not
fully representative of the hurricane's structure. Regardless, Olaf
should begin to weaken once it interacts with land or moves inland.
By late Friday, the rate of weakening is forecast to increase due to
a combination of continued land interactions and cool sea surface
temperatures. Olaf should quickly weaken over the weekend as it
continues to move over cold water, and it will likely become a
post-tropical cyclone on Sunday. The NHC intensity forecast is above
the consensus at 12 h to allow for additional short-term
strengthening, but follows the consensus closely at 36 h and beyond.

Key Messages:

1. Olaf is forecast to move very near or over the southern portion
of Baja California Sur tonight and Friday. Hurricane conditions
are expected to begin within the southern portion of the hurricane
warning area tonight and will spread northward through Friday.

2. Heavy rains associated with Olaf are expected across portions of
southern Baja California Sur through Friday. This will pose a threat
of significant and life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 09/2100Z 22.2N 108.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 10/0600Z 23.1N 110.0W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
24H 10/1800Z 24.2N 111.5W 70 KT 80 MPH...OVER WATER
36H 11/0600Z 24.6N 112.9W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 11/1800Z 24.5N 114.1W 50 KT 60 MPH
60H 12/0600Z 23.9N 115.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
72H 12/1800Z 23.2N 116.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 13/1800Z 22.0N 119.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 14/1800Z 21.5N 122.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster D. Zelinsky

[grapealcoholic]

It might have just pulled off the world's quickest center reformation

[Kingarabian]

Does anyone have a link to the Cabo weather radar they have been mentioning in the discussions?

https://smn.conagua.gob.mx/es/observand ... or-radares

[Kingarabian]

Per this AMSR2 pass, still has work to do. Eyewall theoretically looks strong enough to have Cat.2 winds in the northern quads. Southern eyewall quads are lacking. This is an 1 and 1/2 hour old pass though.

[grapealcoholic]

Per this AMSR2 pass, still has work to do. Eyewall theoretically looks strong enough to have Cat.2 winds in the northern quads. Southern eyewall quads are lacking. This is an 1 and 1/2 hour old pass though.

https://i.imgur.com/yrwmrTy.png

If that closes up

[supercane4867]

At least someone is there to get the data

 https://twitter.com/icyclone/status/1436057946958540804

[Kingarabian]

At least someone is there to get the data

https://twitter.com/icyclone/status/1436057946958540804?s=21

Let's hope he has better luck than he did with Ida in getting the eye.

[grapealcoholic]

This webcam is funny with people just chillen outside

https://www.cabovillas.com/properties.a ... =1&slide=0

[Yellow Evan]

At least someone is there to get the data

https://twitter.com/icyclone/status/1436057946958540804?s=21

Let's hope he has better luck than he did with Ida in getting the eye.

Extreme southern Baja California Sur isn’t as swampy and has a better road network than Louisiana.

[Yellow Evan]

 https://twitter.com/icyclone/status/1436084087316439041

[Astromanía]

Sadly it will be the worst hurricane for Baja California Sur since Odile 2014, people are not expecting a strong hurricane, this will be a surprise for them

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like we have an overperformer here heading towards land...yikes

[grapealcoholic]

That convection on the north side is doing work right now

[sikkar]

A good live cam to watch surge.

https://www.cabovillas.com/properties.a ... =1&slide=0