ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[toad strangler]

If I was down on the peninsula, I'd probably get some basics knocked out today - ice, water, top off those gas tanks, etc. It's already going to be a holiday weekend with lots of travel. Fair chance the majority of the peninsula could be in line for tropical storm effects.

I vowed to get my gas early this year, five gallons per paycheck stored with StaBil because I am NOT doing the gas station shuffle that I did with Irma in Miami. Went ahead and moved up a couple of those cans to this morning. No lines for me this year (I hope)

I'm 45 gallons in with STABIL, it's something I do every June. Hopefully it goes in the vehicles in November.

[BYG Jacob]

Looks like Recon missed the center on that first pass, that'll do it.

[weeniepatrol]

Honestly it was obvious recon missed the center after looking at radar for five seconds. Actual min pressure appears to be ~998mb

[Category5Kaiju]

 https://twitter.com/wxtrackercody/status/1410955520668753922

[AerospaceEng]

So at 13.07N 60.43W it’s actually a hair south of the forecast track.

[BYG Jacob]

Must be a real pain to keep up with the eye.

[Aric Dunn]

now comes the fun part..

passing between those two islands will create pockets of lower pressure on the Carrribean side.. expect a possible jump to the Carribean side as it nears st lucia. ..

[jlauderdal]

If I was down on the peninsula, I'd probably get some basics knocked out today - ice, water, top off those gas tanks, etc. It's already going to be a holiday weekend with lots of travel. Fair chance the majority of the peninsula could be in line for tropical storm effects.

I vowed to get my gas early this year, five gallons per paycheck stored with StaBil because I am NOT doing the gas station shuffle that I did with Irma in Miami. Went ahead and moved up a couple of those cans to this morning. No lines for me this year (I hope)

Excellent work and others should follow that need to "budget" for preps or prefer not to wait...who knows, gas could go up in price and you will get some real ROI in the gas market

[AutoPenalti]

now comes the fun part..

passing between those two islands will create pockets of lower pressure on the Carrribean side.. expect a possible jump to the Carribean side as it nears st lucia. ..

HWRF didn't handle that part as well as I thought it did.

[eastcoastFL]

[Sciencerocks]

[BYG Jacob]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/8289/vZODmL.gif

Classic shrimp look.

[NDG]

I think they are tracking a dying LLC, radar clearly shows that the feature that came across Barbados is further north.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Recon finished and is leaving the storm, leaving us with more questions than answers. Another plane enroute from Tampa.

[AutoPenalti]

Something tells me Recon had mechanical issues, that was only one pass right?

[HurricaneEnzo]

They did find a pressure of 998mb eventually.

[BYG Jacob]

Recon finished, leaving us with more questions than answers.

It clarified a few things.
1. Given the small core size and extreme forward speed, getting the eye and accurate data is going to be very difficult. The hurricane hunters are the best, but they're only human
2. Given the extreme ridging, pressure will be abnormally high.
3. Elsa is absolutely producing hurricane-force winds.

[Iceresistance]

Elsa is now a hurricane, Hurricane Warnings in place for the Leeward Islands

...ELSA STRENGTHENS TO A HURRICANE...

Location: 13.1°N 60.1°W
Moving: WNW at 28 mph
Min pressure: 995 mb
Max sustained: 75 mph

[AnnularCane]

Must be a real pain to keep up with the eye.

I just looked at a visible and let's just say she's considerably further west than I thought. I'm feeling a bit like I'm lagging behind with this one. She might have been outrunning recon.

And if she really is sheared or disorganized, well, all I can say is looks are definitely deceiving.

(I really am lagging behind, I thought recon was still in her.)

[TallyTracker]

I just got my car gassed up. Gonna fill up my 5-gallon jugs and I should be all set. Got tons of water and food already. Definitely not a bad idea to get your supplies in order today if you’re in Florida. If you don’t need it, it makes nice snacking over Christmas.