ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Jr0d]

79-kt FL, 77-kt SFMR

https://twitter.com/wxtrackercody/status/1411002928542806018

....the 77kt SFMR was flagged...

Unflagged 71kts...with a lot of 69kt+unflagged areas..this will force the NHC to increase intensity the next advisory.

I don't think I have ever seen a storm.moving west so fast become a hurricane(though it happens in the mid latitudes when storms accelerate to the N and E). Andrew was moving around 20knots if I remember correctly....

[eastcoastFL]

12z HWRF sees a few small bumps in the road today but again deepens tonight.there’s a small amount of dry air and the islands ahead of her but at her speed it probably won’t hurt her for long.

[Chemmers]

A nice pressure drop since last record a few hours ago, looks like ri is on the cards

[Nuno]

79-kt FL, 77-kt SFMR

https://twitter.com/wxtrackercody/status/1411002928542806018

Throw out all the models at this point. They're not initializing this right.

[SteveM]

Guess what, this season is outpacing all of those now! This season is going to be insane. This is crazy, absolutely crazy that we are discussing the E storm in early July possibly, perhaps plausibly reaching major hurricane status. Blows my mind.

2020 had Edouard on July 4th . . .

Wasn’t named until very late on the 5th.

Wasn't it first thing on the 6th in fact?

[Nimbus]

Small core system will be more resistant to the usual Caribbean shear.
Looks like it has been heading west after the last stair step that came with the RI.

[psyclone]

Small core system will be more resistant to the usual Caribbean shear.
Looks like it has been heading west after the last stair step that came with the RI.

Why would a small core be more resistant to shear? I'd expect the opposite.

[galaxy401]

Yeah recon supports 70 kts at the moment. Much lower pressure too.

Elsa should do better then the usual sheared storm in the Eastern Caribbean since established storms have no problem in that region. It's only a graveyard for poorly organized storms.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Small core system will be more resistant to the usual Caribbean shear.
Looks like it has been heading west after the last stair step that came with the RI.

Look at delta. The smallest amount of shear ripped the core to pieces.

[BYG Jacob]

Yeah recon supports 70 kts at the moment. Much lower pressure too.

Elsa should do better then the usual sheared storm in the Eastern Caribbean since established storms have no problem in that region. It's only a graveyard for poorly organized storms.

Pst, it's not even a graveyard for any system right now.

[EquusStorm]

Waking up to a hurricane hitting St Vincent on July 2nd is... something. You never want to see something only upgraded to a hurricane with hurricane warnings when surface obs forces it. I wonder if the NHC has been leaning too heavily on Euro (which has been abysmal so far re: intensity) and climo, as most of the intensity guidance actually did pretty good with this bout of deepening. Still weird to see something going so fast wrapping up that quickly.

[tiger_deF]

Small core system will be more resistant to the usual Caribbean shear.
Looks like it has been heading west after the last stair step that came with the RI.

Look at delta. The smallest amount of shear ripped the core to pieces.

I would argue that Delta's core was so small and intense that it lacked an element of structural stability, making even a small "push" in a suboptimal direction potentially enough to disrupt it

[InfernoFlameCat]

Small core system will be more resistant to the usual Caribbean shear.
Looks like it has been heading west after the last stair step that came with the RI.

Look at delta. The smallest amount of shear ripped the core to pieces.

I would argue that Delta's core was so small and intense that it lacked an element of structural stability, making even a small "push" in a suboptimal direction potentially enough to disrupt it

exactly. A bigger core has much more stable convection that takes more shear to dislodge enough to cause weakening, however larger cores do not usually intensify as fast as small cores.

[AlphaToOmega]

Maybe Florida will not be so lucky this time. Florida is right in the cone for Hurricane Elsa, and most model runs show Elsa impacting Florida one way or another.

[skyline385]

Small core system will be more resistant to the usual Caribbean shear.
Looks like it has been heading west after the last stair step that came with the RI.

Look at delta. The smallest amount of shear ripped the core to pieces.

I would argue that Delta's core was so small and intense that it lacked an element of structural stability, making even a small "push" in a suboptimal direction potentially enough to disrupt it

Delta's core was very unstable with that tiny pinhole eye

[wxman57]

Interesting that recon is finding 65-70 kts at FL over islands that are reporting 20-25 kt surface winds. This morning's recon mission just looked "off". Pressures looked off, winds off. Just didn't look like good data. Back to advisory...

[wx98]

2020 had Edouard on July 4th . . .

Wasn’t named until very late on the 5th.

Wasn't it first thing on the 6th in fact?

By UTC time. Local time was late on the 5th

[cjrciadt]

116 knot SMFR, gotta be flagged or a Mesovortices

[skyline385]

116 knot SMFR, gotta be flagged or a Mesovortices

Mesovortices that far out?

[BYG Jacob]

Interesting that recon is finding 65-70 kts at FL over islands that are reporting 20-25 kt surface winds. This morning's recon mission just looked "off". Pressures looked off, winds off. Just didn't look like good data. Back to advisory...

They couldn't get a good center fix, they got a much better fix off the second plane which showed Elsa was easily a hurricane.