Tropical Depression Nine-E Discussion Number 8
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092021
1100 AM HST Wed Aug 04 2021
Satellite images today indicate that the system has been maintaining
two hooking bands of convection to the north and south of the
center. In addition, scatterometer data shows a well-defined,
albeit a touch elongated, center and 30-kt winds. Thus, advisories
are being re-started on Tropical Depression Nine-E after a 3-day
hiatus, with an initial intensity of 30 kt.
The depression probably only has a few days as a tropical cyclone
again because SSTs begin to drop off in a day or so, along with
increasing shear and mid-level dry air. Nine-E does have a chance
to finally become a tropical storm in the meantime before
the aforementioned environmental conditions get less conducive on
Friday. The system is likely to degenerate into a remnant low
again this weekend (or sooner) as it encounters a very hostile
environment. The NHC wind speed forecast is close to the model
consensus, but is a smidge higher near peak intensity, owing to the
HCCA corrected-consensus guidance.
The depression has been moving slowly toward the north-northwest
today. A distant mid-level ridge to the northeast is providing the
steering for the cyclone. This ridge should strengthen somewhat
during the next few days, causing the depression to gradually turn
to the northwest on Thursday and continue that motion through late
week. Similar to a lot of forecasts this year, the GFS-based
guidance is on the right side of the track envelope while the ECMWF
and UKMET solutions lie on the left side. The official track
assumes that the GFS shows a bit too deep of a tropical cyclone, and
so the NHC prediction leans just west of the consensus throughout
the forecast period.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 04/2100Z 14.9N 135.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 05/0600Z 15.6N 136.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 05/1800Z 16.5N 136.8W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 06/0600Z 17.4N 138.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 06/1800Z 18.4N 139.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
60H 07/0600Z 19.5N 141.0W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 07/1800Z 20.5N 142.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 08/1800Z 21.5N 146.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 09/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Blake
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