ATL: GRACE - Models

[IcyTundra]

The ICON does show stronger ridging than the GFS would be more of a threat to FL and potentially the GOM if the ridging is stronger.

[ElectricStorm]

HMON running now and starts to develop it right after it reaches the islands. South of GFS so far but starting to turn north. Might hit PR

EDIT: Actually looks like it closes it off before the islands but doesn't strengthen until after

[Beef Stew]

The GFS says welcome to late August… now’s when we really start watching. Needless to say it’s far too early to buy into singular runs, and things can and will change drastically but… 95L- or (likely) future Grace- will be one to track closely.

[caneseddy]

HMON has it south of Puerto Rico moving west and starting to intensify

[ElectricStorm]

Turning back W on HMON. S of PR

[Hurricaneman]

Turning back W on HMON. S of PR

Actually more 265

[caneseddy]

Canadian dissipates it but you can track vorticity into Hispaniola

[caneseddy]

HMON seems to want to shoot the storm through Mona Passage

Edit: seems to be going towards Hispaniola

[jaxfladude]

:uparrow: Fantasy land model run(GFS?) is it or sensing near future atmospheric conditions?

[IcyTundra]

HMON clears PR to the south looks like there will be interaction with Hispanola if it continues WNW.

[ElectricStorm]

HWRF has it really struggling. Rare to see that from it

[Hurricaneman]

The HMON seems to be trending north, the next run could be over the north side of Hispaniola if the trend continues

[Hurricaneman]

The best shot for 95L to go big is go north of PR and Hispaniola if the models are to be believed because south of the greater Antilles or over them seems to be a hostile environment

[Hurricaneman]

The Euro isn’t coming onboard for development, may just be late to the party and show development in later runs

[AxaltaRacing24]

The Euro isn’t coming onboard for development, may just be late to the party and show development in later runs

That look at 48-72 hrs would get a name in the real world. I'd count that as development.

[Kingarabian]

The Euro isn’t coming onboard for development, may just be late to the party and show development in later runs

That look at 48-72 hrs would get a name in the real world. I'd count that as development.

Agreed

[AtlanticWind]

Euro into Hispanola Gfs clears to the north, big key on maybe future Grace.

I picked the name Grace as first major of the year, now hoping I'm wrong as it looks pretty
certain to make landfall somewhere.

[SFLcane]

Florida watch this one.

[OuterBanker]

WOW

Ain't gonna happen but 0z GFS has a hurricane stall of FL then head north for a OBX direct hit bordering cat 4.

Pure fantasy of course.

[jlauderdal]

Florida watch this one.

https://i.postimg.cc/L43XcS2M/D2-B9-B061-0225-46-AF-98-CF-CD0-E0740-B6-C1.png

GFS operational is really excited about it but the ridge breaks down just in time for Florida, how many times have we seen that...euro less enthusiastic but need to give it some time, the euro has really been poor this season and is either due for a win shortly or do for the coders to get in and rework it...i will be monitoring from the mountains of colorado where the only concern is the upper 40s at night and some storms in the afternoon