ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[Frank P]

99L continues to look better this afternoon. Additionally it appears the overall system is gaining latitude over time. Big question will the center finally consolidate, gonna play a huge part in ultimate track..

https://i.ibb.co/cvcgmzf/goes16-truecolor-watl.gif

Levi thinks maybe Saturday at the Yucatan

Ahhh, my bad I meant to say where will it consolidate. Post edited accordingly..

[cycloneye]

A broad area of low pressure is expected to form over the
southwestern Caribbean Sea during the next day or so from a tropical
wave currently located north of Colombia. Environmental conditions
are forecast to be conducive for development, and a tropical
depression or tropical storm is likely to form late this week or
over the weekend. The system is expected to move northwestward over
the northwestern Caribbean Sea and near or across the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico on Friday and into the Gulf of Mexico this
weekend where conditions are expected to be favorable for additional
development. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and flooding
will be possible through the weekend in portions of Nicaragua,
Honduras, Guatemala, Belize, and the Yucatan Peninsula. In addition,
this system could bring dangerous impacts from storm surge, wind,
and heavy rainfall to portions of the coasts of Louisiana, Texas,
and the Mexican state of Tamaulipas late this weekend and early next
week. However, uncertainty remains large since the system has yet to
form. Interests in these areas should closely monitor the progress
of this system and ensure they have their hurricane plan in place.
An Air Force Reserve reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to
investigate the system Thursday afternoon, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[PTrackerLA]

Just made my first run to costco, I learned to over prepare for power outages after last year and having a 2 and 4 year old at home who now call every thunderstorm hurricane Laura . Saw a few generators already being purchased and water was flying out the door. Here we go, again.

[kevin]

If I could get a feel on what Wxman57 had to say on this I would feel a lot better. He warned about grace when a lot of us talked about it dissipating over the GA. Once again he just has that knowledge of what a tc will do.

True, because he's always pretty conservative with his TC forecasts (at least relative to most other users on the forum) I always pay extra attention to a storm when he says that it's something to watch out for. If I recall correctly he also warned people about Irma during its early stages, back when I was still only reading this forum and not posting. His experience with TCs is pretty much unmatched on this forum.

[Iceresistance]

Just made my first run to costco, I learned to over prepare for power outages after last year and having a 2 and 4 year old at home who now call every thunderstorm hurricane Laura . Saw a few generators already being purchased and water was flying out the door. Here we go, again.

They are terrified that another storm like Laura is coming again . . .

[Iceresistance]

The NHC has said that the broad area of Low Pressure has yet to form . . . But Satellite is proving otherwise?

[BobHarlem]

The NHC has said that the broad area of Low Pressure has yet to form . . . But Satellite is proving otherwise?

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/86066096.gif

Looks like a long axis with two areas, SW and NE trying to get going. I don't think it's formed yet, but NHC does have it at a 50/50 shot for the next 48 hours. If the SW one drops, it's off to the races.

[SouthDadeFish]

All signs suggest there will be a powerful tropical cyclone in the NW Gulf 5 days from now. It's way too early to pin down a potential landfall location or intensity, but now is the time to gather your hurricane season supplies if you have not yet done so. What concerns me about this storm is how high the ceiling is. Hopefully it remains a large, broad and disorganized mess, but that solution is looking less likely each day that goes by.

[jaguars_22]

South dade? Do you think central Texas is still possible? Or are the shifts that far west done?

[Iceresistance]

All signs suggest there will be a powerful tropical cyclone in the NW Gulf 5 days from now. It's way too early to pin down a potential landfall location or intensity, but now is the time to gather your hurricane season supplies if you have not yet done so. What concerns me about this storm is how high the ceiling is. Hopefully it remains a large, broad and disorganized mess, but that solution is looking less likely each day that goes by.

The GFS used to do that feature Yesterday (Which I've never seen before), but it's now trying to go Pinhole . . .

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1430595251933167625



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1430587102790574080



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1430589024415125510



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1430591848125550592

[cycloneye]

All signs suggest there will be a powerful tropical cyclone in the NW Gulf 5 days from now. It's way too early to pin down a potential landfall location or intensity, but now is the time to gather your hurricane season supplies if you have not yet done so. What concerns me about this storm is how high the ceiling is. Hopefully it remains a large, broad and disorganized mess, but that solution is looking less likely each day that goes by.

A question. Do you see 95E / Nora throwing shear to the GOM system and could slow the intensification proccess?

[Iceresistance]

South dade? Do you think central Texas is still possible? Or are the shifts that far west done?

12z HWRF has this at 962 MB heading straight for Houston

99L Models forum link: http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59&p=2930614#p2930614

[Steve]

The NHC has said that the broad area of Low Pressure has yet to form . . . But Satellite is proving otherwise?

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/86066096.gif

Mid levels probably.

[cheezyWXguy]

The NHC has said that the broad area of Low Pressure has yet to form . . . But Satellite is proving otherwise?

https://s9.gifyu.com/images/86066096.gif

Mid levels probably.

Yeah, it’s definitely still broad. Plus there’s still the question about where it will consolidate while interacting with the CAG

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/HuracanFfolkes/status/1430600807519559683



 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1430598448294813704



 https://twitter.com/MichaelRLowry/status/1430599063938940932

[SouthDadeFish]

South dade? Do you think central Texas is still possible? Or are the shifts that far west done?

I have no idea how future model runs will look. If I did, I'd have a lot more money than I do now! But if you are within the current plume of GFS/Euro ensembles you're within the potential path of the storm. So yes, central Texas is definitely still possible.

[SouthDadeFish]

All signs suggest there will be a powerful tropical cyclone in the NW Gulf 5 days from now. It's way too early to pin down a potential landfall location or intensity, but now is the time to gather your hurricane season supplies if you have not yet done so. What concerns me about this storm is how high the ceiling is. Hopefully it remains a large, broad and disorganized mess, but that solution is looking less likely each day that goes by.

A question. Do you see 95E / Nora throwing shear to the GOM system and could slow the intensification proccess?

A good question. Shear from 95E is a possibility. However, such shear from 95E would likely be confined to the TC outflow layer. This is important, because research has shown these thin layers of shear in the TC outflow layer can be resisted by strong TCs, such as potential 99L. I think the earlier 99L develops into a TC (especially a hurricane) the less likely it is that shear from 95E will keep 99L in check. With that being said, shear forecasts can be very tough.

At this time, I suspect the main thing that could keep 99L relatively weak (maybe still a hurricane though) would be the broad nature of the initial vortex structure (which is reflected by some models such as HAFS, and to some extent the 12Z HWRF).

[Hurricane Mike]

Afternoon video update. Not liking what I'm seeing for the Gulf Coast
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w_1zg_eBE9o

[MarioProtVI]

The fact they’re issuing key messages on a invest makes me think they’re gonna call it POTC 9 at 5pm and raise it to 70/90 or so.