EPAC: OLAF - Post-Tropical

[Kingarabian]

IR presentation degrading with all those overshooting tops. Hard to get anything more than a 4.5-5.0 on Dvorak. Eye looks to be east of track. Might buy it more time to ramp up before landfall.

[grapealcoholic]

The convection will wrap it's only a matter of time

[Yellow Evan]

Vertical hot tower on the northwest is overshooting the eye. Likely back down to T4.5 for now.

[supercane4867]

[Kingarabian]

Looks like it's attempting to clear the eye out again:

[Yellow Evan]

BD loop at least seems to imply a NNE wobble. San Jose del Cabo might be ground zero if it were to keep it up hypothetically but it’ll probably resume its general NNW motion at around 325.

[grapealcoholic]

Eye just rapidly warmed

[sikkar]

Looking at live cams, there are still people swimming and relaxing .

[Kingarabian]

Looking at live cams, there are still people swimming and relaxing .

They're about to get smacked with 100mph winds soon.

[Teban54]

Looking at live cams, there are still people swimming and relaxing .

They're about to get smacked with 100mph winds soon.

Obviously I don't hope this will happen, but I wonder if Olaf will end up bad enough in deaths or damages to warrant retirement just due to lack of preparations alone.

[sikkar]

I guess many were taken off guard track wise.

[grapealcoholic]

ADT is going to spike to like 6.5 when it wraps

[Astromanía]

Looking at live cams, there are still people swimming and relaxing .

And then everybody wonder why there are fatalities

[Yellow Evan]

Looking at live cams, there are still people swimming and relaxing .

They're about to get smacked with 100mph winds soon.

Obviously I don't hope this will happen, but I wonder if Olaf will end up bad enough in deaths or damages to warrant retirement just due to lack of preparations alone.

Probably not, given this is weaker and smaller than Odile and isn’t supposed to bring a prolonged period of heavy rain. A Cat 2 hitting San Jose del Cabo unexpectedly will cause some problems but I’m not expecting a historical hurricane.

[grapealcoholic]

They're about to get smacked with 100mph winds soon.

Obviously I don't hope this will happen, but I wonder if Olaf will end up bad enough in deaths or damages to warrant retirement just due to lack of preparations alone.

Probably not, given this is weaker and smaller than Odile and isn’t supposed to bring a prolonged period of heavy rain. A Cat 2 hitting San Jose del Cabo unexpectedly will cause some problems but I’m not expecting a historical hurricane.

Cat 2 seems optimistic

[Astromanía]

Looking at live cams, there are still people swimming and relaxing .

They're about to get smacked with 100mph winds soon.

Obviously I don't hope this will happen, but I wonder if Olaf will end up bad enough in deaths or damages to warrant retirement just due to lack of preparations alone.

If it happens it will be just due to the lack of preparation just as Odile. Odile had a relatively low death toll (18 in total) but the area was just destroyed letting thousands of people without water and power for months and the economic lost was horrible, but Odile was a major and this is not

[sikkar]

Olaf just got blessed with the mesoscale loop just in time.

[sikkar]

Better quality/ angle.

https://cabo.villadelpalmar.com/live-cam

[grapealcoholic]

[Kingarabian]

Current Intensity Analysis





UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 SEP 2021 Time : 222031 UTC
Lat : 22:32:59 N Lon : 109:03:00 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.7 / 970.3mb/ 82.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.7 4.7 5.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -34.1C Cloud Region Temp : -65.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

Josh might get a Cat.3