ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[daromaine]

Anyone near Abbeville??? Hoping it doesn't inch its way west.

[Kohlecane]

This thing at DMAX tomorrow should be quite the show

[Michele B]

Thread on just this discussion… cliffs Katrina had a lot of bulky up energy and surge from being a large cat 5 for so long https://twitter.com/jacob_feuer/status/1431365487531864066?s=21

Of course every storm is different.

But I think they make comparisons to help people bring up images of how bad Katrina/Camille were so they don't take this lightly.

I'm old enough to remember Camille, and how so many people were PARTYING right there on the highway (across the street from the Gulf) while laughing (and DRINKING) the night away while the storm rolled in and swept them all away. So for those who are old enough to remember that horrific scenario, or the days and days and weeks and months of flooding in NOLA, they can imagine that kind of devastation and must believe the hurricane experts.

[Teban54]

As we watch Ida in its early stages, I think it's a good time to remind everyone that while Ida might be facing less than ideal conditions such as dry air and some slight shear, they are well expected and NOT indicative of lower potential in the Gulf. Most model runs from a few days ago didn't even show Ida becoming a tropical cyclone before entering the Yucatan Channel, yet they still make it a solid major at the Gulf landfall. Ida is already ahead of schedule by forming just west of Jamaica.

That being said, the stronger Ida is when crossing Cuba (assuming a landfall there), the higher its ceiling is in the Gulf. If Ida manages to enter the Gulf as a hurricane, then a scenario similar to Camille, Carla, Rita or Michael - all of which entered the Gulf as hurricanes - might become plausible. At this moment this is a low possibility scenario and I won't bet my money on it, but if it happens, watch out. (Not saying a "normal" C3/4 isn't bad, of course)

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

Made this post yesterday when it looked like Ida would struggle until past Cuba... What a difference a day makes.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Also the strongest TC in the world did NOT have a pinhole eye. it was some 40 miles wide. Storms do NOT need a pinhole eye to go sub 900mb.

[Owasso]

 https://twitter.com/53rdWRS/status/1431386568825126919

[skyline385]

I shudder to think of what the ceiling for Ida is. Dare I say, I think it might be our first sub-900 storm in years if everything goes wrong.
It's silly but I've always wanted to visit New Orleans someday. I hope I still get the chance with this in mind.

Sub-900 is too much, it doesnt have the time for that kind of RI and storms only get to sub-900 with a pinhole eye while undergoing explosive intensification. A system with an average sized eye like Ida isnt dropping that low, it would not be able to sustain it...

Rita did it with a regular eye.

Rita's eye contracted from 20nm to 16nm during its period of RI over the loop current. 16nm isnt average afaik, its fairly small...

[Stormgodess]

OK GUYS.... Im about to Rant or Cry, Im not sure which one!

The Mayor of New Orleans is on right now saying there is now no time for Mandatory Evacuations for the city!

THIS is why I have been raving for two days about Local Meteorologist being more vocal about the possibility of what this storm could be!

WE ALL WATCHED IT! Saw that tight group of spaghetti models, the gulf temps... And even people like me that have no more experience than living through so many of these dang storms saw what the catastrophic potential was.

WHY Didnt the weather services, and the local meteorologists at least put a little more emphasis on what this storm could be? Its like they are too afraid to be wrong. Why not at least err on the side of caution, and risk being wrong more, but sparing lives when the worst cases happen? Im sorry Im frustrated, Im sleep deprived, and Im worried. I have been screaming FIRE on facebook for two days to every person I know. But with no msgs from our local weather guys to back me up. It just sucks

[tropicwatch]

https://twitter.com/53rdWRS/status/1431386568825126919?s=20

That answered my question

[skyline385]

Also the strongest TC in the world did NOT have a pinhole eye. it was some 40 miles wide. Storms do NOT need a pinhole eye to go sub 900mb.

You are very WRONG on this

Taken from wiki for Typhoon Tip,
"At the time of its peak strength, its eye was 15 km (9.3 mi) wide."
You need to check up on your sources because a TC eye will always contract to reach sub-900 pressures.

[Clearcloudz]

OK GUYS.... Im about to Rant or Cry, Im not sure which one!

The Mayor of New Orleans is on right now saying there is now no time for Mandatory Evacuations for the city!

THIS is why I have been raving for two days about Local Meteorologist being more vocal about the possibility of what this storm could be!

WE ALL WATCHED IT! Saw that tight group of spaghetti models, the gulf temps... And even people like me that have no more experience than living through so many of these dang storms saw what the catastrophic potential was.

WHY Didnt the weather services, and the local meteorologists at least put a little more emphasis on what this storm could be? Its like they are too afraid to be wrong. Why not at least err on the side of caution, and risk being wrong more, but sparing lives when the worst cases happen? Im sorry Im frustrated, Im sleep deprived, and Im worried. I have been screaming FIRE on facebook for two days to every person I know. But with no msgs from our local weather guys to back me up. It just sucks

New Orleans said they are very confident in the 20 million dollar improvement they have made on the levee system. If it holds up then the city ends of saving billions of dollars in damage hopefully.

[kevin]

Sub-900 is too much, it doesnt have the time for that kind of RI and storms only get to sub-900 with a pinhole eye while undergoing explosive intensification. A system with an average sized eye like Ida isnt dropping that low, it would not be able to sustain it...

Rita did it with a regular eye.

Rita's eye contracted from 20nm to 16nm during its period of RI over the loop current. 16nm isnt average afaik, its fairly small...

I agree with you that in the Atlantic a pinhole or at least a small eye is almost always required for sub-900 hurricanes, but just an interesting sidenote: cyclone Yasa has a 35 mile eye when it reached 899 mbar. As I said not really relevant since Yasa developed in a fundamentally different environment and it was more an exception than a rule, but I just thought of it when I read your post. Might be the largest eye in a sub-900 storm that I can think of. Anyways, let's discuss these things in the intense TC thread and continue with Ida.

[Stormgodess]

OK GUYS.... Im about to Rant or Cry, Im not sure which one!

The Mayor of New Orleans is on right now saying there is now no time for Mandatory Evacuations for the city!

THIS is why I have been raving for two days about Local Meteorologist being more vocal about the possibility of what this storm could be!

WE ALL WATCHED IT! Saw that tight group of spaghetti models, the gulf temps... And even people like me that have no more experience than living through so many of these dang storms saw what the catastrophic potential was.

WHY Didnt the weather services, and the local meteorologists at least put a little more emphasis on what this storm could be? Its like they are too afraid to be wrong. Why not at least err on the side of caution, and risk being wrong more, but sparing lives when the worst cases happen? Im sorry Im frustrated, Im sleep deprived, and Im worried. I have been screaming FIRE on facebook for two days to every person I know. But with no msgs from our local weather guys to back me up. It just sucks

New Orleans said they are very confident in the 20 million dollar improvement they have made on the levee system. If it holds up then the city ends of saving billions of dollars in damage hopefully.

The corrupt politicians in that city cant even keep the dang prehistoric pumps running, And wouldnt dare spend the money to replace them. And New Orleans HAS NO CLUE what a wind event is like? When was the last time that they got one with significant winds. Because as far as the wind in New orleans for Katrina it was barely a kiss. In sorry I dont have alot of faith in any of it. and sorry Im not fussing at you. Im just frustrated with it all And edited because of all the typos, geez I need sleep

[InfernoFlameCat]

Also the strongest TC in the world did NOT have a pinhole eye. it was some 40 miles wide. Storms do NOT need a pinhole eye to go sub 900mb.

You are very WRONG on this

Taken from wiki for Typhoon Tip,
"At the time of its peak strength, its eye was 15 km (9.3 mi) wide."
You need to check up on your sources because a TC eye will always contract to reach sub-900 pressures.

My apologies I misread that at a different time. you are right.

[chaser1]

That is one of the most aggressive NHC discussions I've read for a CAT1 RI'ing TC, using the word catastrophic already. How fast is this EI is going to be, in terms of all-time rankings for Gulf systems. Also for the settled size of the hurricane as if there was ever a setup to fuel a large hurricane fast like Katrina this is it with the loop current.

Yep; I'm pretty much sitting back in awe of the unfolding potential disaster to come. Camille or an Andrew comes to mind (though Andrew's core was mercifully small). This is truly looking to be the Battle in the Bayou - The Big Hurt (Ida) verses the Big Easy. NOT GOOD

[cheezyWXguy]

Also the strongest TC in the world did NOT have a pinhole eye. it was some 40 miles wide. Storms do NOT need a pinhole eye to go sub 900mb.

You are very WRONG on this

Taken from wiki for Typhoon Tip,
"At the time of its peak strength, its eye was 15 km (9.3 mi) wide."
You need to check up on your sources because a TC eye will always contract to reach sub-900 pressures.

This is kind of a pointless argument since it is statistically so unlikely by default for this storm to reach that level, so I agree with you on that. But you don’t need a pinhole eye to get a sub 900 storm. Rita’s 15mi wide eye is not big, but it’s not a pinhole. Hell, Katrina was 3mb away from being considered sub 900mb with something like a 30 mile wide eye

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Have to admit this morning I did not expect Ida to make it to Cuba with this impressive of a radar presentation.

[johngaltfla]

This could easily become a major threat to New Orleans by Sunday. The conditions are improving in the Gulf and available energy/SST's are primed. This is the worst time of year for a storm like this to form in this locaiton.

I remember posting this a few days ago and was told there was no "M" in the forecast cone yet. Folks, I've come close to one of these monsters (Charley) and watched a 2 go to a 4 in less than 6 hours. This storm in particular is very dangerous.

As storms like Ida intensify, odds are the models will wobble a bit more. As others have said the EURO/UKMET tend to have a westward bias and others an eastward one. I strongly advise all who are in the target zone to pay close attention to tomorrow's model read outs and understand that 30-50 miles in either direction makes a huge difference in impacts. If this shifts just 30-50 miles east, New Orleans is in grave danger and the Mississippi coast line might well be impacted also.

Keep your head on a swivel folks and pray somehow this weakens. My best guess is this will be a 140 mph+ storm in 24-36 hours.

[johngaltfla]

OK GUYS.... Im about to Rant or Cry, Im not sure which one!

The Mayor of New Orleans is on right now saying there is now no time for Mandatory Evacuations for the city!

THIS is why I have been raving for two days about Local Meteorologist being more vocal about the possibility of what this storm could be!

WE ALL WATCHED IT! Saw that tight group of spaghetti models, the gulf temps... And even people like me that have no more experience than living through so many of these dang storms saw what the catastrophic potential was.

WHY Didnt the weather services, and the local meteorologists at least put a little more emphasis on what this storm could be? Its like they are too afraid to be wrong. Why not at least err on the side of caution, and risk being wrong more, but sparing lives when the worst cases happen? Im sorry Im frustrated, Im sleep deprived, and Im worried. I have been screaming FIRE on facebook for two days to every person I know. But with no msgs from our local weather guys to back me up. It just sucks

New Orleans said they are very confident in the 20 million dollar improvement they have made on the levee system. If it holds up then the city ends of saving billions of dollars in damage hopefully.

I hope the mayor is right. I have heard rumors that 3 pumps were down for maintenance right now, why in God's name during hurricane season is beyond me.

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/5PGW0Fw.gif

Have to admit this morning I did not expect Ida to make it to Cuba with this impressive of a radar presentation.

With such a well defined eyewall and a new massive hot tower expanding over the LLC, Ida will be entering the Gulf in a very good position. I thought a hurricane at Cuba was very unlikely…but here we are.