ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[toad strangler]

Elsa looks like the she is either moving or re-locating further WSW than last location. Either that or the visible imagery is playing tricks on my eyes. But if you think about it, it makes sense as most of the moisture into the storm is from the South and SSE, kind of like a tug of war.

It's a fascinating system given the rarity of calendar / location. Many climo norms are out the window with this one. We'll see soon enough if she goes quietly or pulls a rabbit out of the hat.

[Cat5James]

That relocation is East not west... which increases chances of contact with Hispanola

[GrayLancer18]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1411096373009666051

[Craters]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/images/xxwvg8bbm.jpg

Wow. That advancing trough over the US is huge...

[BYG Jacob]

Old core died out and a new got going instantly

[Category5Kaiju]

Ah yes, paying attention to very minute wobbles and satellite appearance changes. Fun times, I specifically remember being a part of this when I tracked Laura, especially between the time it formed to entering the Gulf. Painstaking but worth the effort!

[lhpfish]

Eye?

[Nimbus]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/images/xxwvg8bbm.jpg

Wow. That advancing trough over the US is huge...

Upper air pattern southeast of that looks like it is bridging into one big high pressure dome.
I think Levi might explain it better with graphics..

[InfernoFlameCat]

Eye?

Maybe, but more likely just a dry slot that happens to be at the center or near it. I don’t see any convection on the western half that’s why I think it’s a dry slot.

[Jr0d]

Old core died out and a new got going instantly

Kind of like an Eye wall replacement cycle.. just without a true eye wall.

I'm thinking tonight Elsa will once again defy the forecast and strengthen further.

I am puzzles that it is forecast to go so far west before the trough picks it up. I have seen in countless times where Florida is under the cone until about the longitude of Hispaniola, then a trough comes in and pushes the storm away.....at this point I don't think we can ignore the Canadian and Navy models...but with the EURO now caving to a further west solution, Florida being saved by the trough is looking less and less likely.

I've been tracking storms since I was a kid and each year they do something that baffles me.

[InfernoFlameCat]

This last frame is confusing as the convection is not appearing to wrap around the center or straight up billow but has a slight curve as if it is still a feeder band.

[lhpfish]

When is she expected to slow down?

[InfernoFlameCat]

When is she expected to slow down?

36-48 hours is what the NHC I think said.
Edit: 26-30 hours from now

[lhpfish]

Got
It

[Blown Away]

Sure does appear Elsa is reforming to ESE while the old convection racing W dies off...

[Hypercane_Kyle]

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1411103725402222594

[AutoPenalti]

HWRF escapes Cuba as a 994...

[eastcoastFL]

HWRF track seems to continue to be good. It has Elsa around 14.5n 65w at 8pm and it seems to be pretty close so far and the slight weakening also matches up. Still hoping it’s wrong long term

[toad strangler]

HWRF escapes Cuba as a 994...

#outlier

[aspen]

Pressure is dropping as recon approaches the old LLC. This will be a very interesting flight, potentially seeing a center relocation as it happens, if recon decides to check out where the new center might be forming.