ATL: HENRI - Models

[ronjon]

12z Ukmet
https://i.imgur.com/Lp48duS.png

As good as the UKMET did with Grace long term, but this is a different set up..tricky tricky..

UKMET also did extremely well with Fred's landfall.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[BobHarlem]

12 HWRF (animated because one frame doesn't work for this type of landfall) Martha's Vineyard gets the NE Quad, then NW landfall into Rhode Island.

[hohnywx]

 https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/1428422240022958080




Based on this, thinking the NHC track shifts slightly westward at 5.

[Woofde]

The next two to three models cycles are going to be very interesting. The models will have lots of extra data that they haven't previously had. I have a feeling we will see the models hone in on a solution soon.

[IcyTundra]

18Z ICON looks like a landfall near the Rhode Island/Massachusetts border.

[BobHarlem]

Loopy 18z icon, slight overall shift left

[Woofde]

18Z ICON looks like a landfall near the Rhode Island/Massachusetts border.

It initialized at 1004mb which is 7mb weaker than reality too.

[Kohlecane]

18Z ICON dropped it's keys before headed out the door on that run

[aspen]

18z icon, slight overall shift left
https://i.imgur.com/vQCHmfG.gif

I see the ICON apparently hates everyone from Hartford to Provincetown. A hurricane-force landfall plus a stall would be horrific up here.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

18z icon, slight overall shift left
https://i.imgur.com/vQCHmfG.gif

I see the ICON apparently hates everyone from Hartford to Provincetown. A hurricane-force landfall plus a stall would be horrific up here.

Indeed, that has been a worst-case scenario and one of my personal NE nightmares for a long time a long-duration hurricane-force event. Let's hope it doesn't verify.

[IcyTundra]

18Z GFS looks further west.

[JtSmarts]

[JtSmarts]

The Gif didn't want to work for me but it definitely makes that left hook.

[IcyTundra]

Looks like 18Z GFS has a landfall near Falmouth, Massachusetts

[Kohlecane]

So at this point do we just forget the GFS 12Z, This mornings 00Z and 06Z look almost identical location wise to the 18z, jst this run has it slightly weaker at landfall.
will be interesting to compare the other models

[BobHarlem]

18z GFS Also being loopy like the Icon, shift left back to landfall, MV, and Falmouth

[IcyTundra]

So at this point do we just forget the GFS 12Z, This mornings 00Z and 06Z look almost identical location wise to the 18z, jst this run has it slightly weaker at landfall.

18Z GFS has recon data unlike the runs from earlier today. I think you can toss out the 12Z GFS as an outlier compared to recent trends in the modeling.

[Kohlecane]

18z HMON already at 73W @39hr