ATL: IDA - Remnants - Discussion

[Steve]

Afternoon video update. Not liking what I'm seeing for the Gulf Coast
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w_1zg_eBE9o

Good stuff Mike, as always.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1430608364275478538

[NDG]

Definitely has a well defined MLC already.

[tolakram]

99 has floater status

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-24-0-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

[cycloneye]

AL, 99, 2021082518, , BEST, 0, 130N, 773W, 30, 1006, DB

[captainbarbossa19]

I am starting to think that this will be named Ida and not Julian.

[MississippiWx]

AL, 99, 2021082518, , BEST, 0, 130N, 773W, 30, 1006, DB

https://i.imgur.com/8PGvzjl.png

NHC not ready to bite on the northern end of the axis yet. Looks like they took the middle of the wave axis and split the difference.

[ConvergenceZone]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong or just explain how the heck the system suppose to be that strong when it's moving that fast? I'm seeing a system in the central Carib on Wednesday Afternoon and it may hit the gulf coast in only 5 days???? How the heck does it suppose to get that strong if the models have it moving that fast? Haven't we seen in the past that systems that move this fast usually take quite a bit of time to get strong, if they ever do at all?? Prior to me saying this, I had originally thought that the system would be entering the southern Gulf on Monday, as opposed to being way up in the North Gulf landfalling.... Thoughts on this??

[GCANE]

Looking at CAPE in the GOM.
4500 around Houston.
5000 in the NE GoM

What do these values mean? Thanks!

A TC usually develops around 3500.
TC's gain strength when the CAPE values are higher, given other variables such as shear, dry-air, are the same.
5000 is very high and capable of quickly intensifying a TC.
The highest I have seen in the GOM is 6000.

[supercane4867]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong or just explain how the heck the system suppose to be that strong when it's moving that fast? I'm seeing a system in the central Carib on Wednesday Afternoon and it may hit the gulf coast in only 5 days???? How the heck does it suppose to get that strong if the models have it moving that fast? Haven't we seen in the past that systems that move this fast usually take quite a bit of time to get strong, if they ever do at all?? Prior to me saying this, I had originally thought that the system would be entering the southern Gulf on Monday, as opposed to being way up in the North Gulf landfalling.... Thoughts on this??

Strong steering that's all. Look at the ridge to it's NE

[Sciencerocks]

[ConvergenceZone]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong or just explain how the heck the system suppose to be that strong when it's moving that fast? I'm seeing a system in the central Carib on Wednesday Afternoon and it may hit the gulf coast in only 5 days???? How the heck does it suppose to get that strong if the models have it moving that fast? Haven't we seen in the past that systems that move this fast usually take quite a bit of time to get strong, if they ever do at all?? Prior to me saying this, I had originally thought that the system would be entering the southern Gulf on Monday, as opposed to being way up in the North Gulf landfalling.... Thoughts on this??

Strong steering that's all. Look at the ridge to it's NE

https://i.imgur.com/ehENM1l.png

Still, I think the lightning fast speed will be an inhibitor to significant strengthening. Just like we've seen with many past systems.....

[ElectricStorm]

Someone correct me if I'm wrong or just explain how the heck the system suppose to be that strong when it's moving that fast? I'm seeing a system in the central Carib on Wednesday Afternoon and it may hit the gulf coast in only 5 days???? How the heck does it suppose to get that strong if the models have it moving that fast? Haven't we seen in the past that systems that move this fast usually take quite a bit of time to get strong, if they ever do at all?? Prior to me saying this, I had originally thought that the system would be entering the southern Gulf on Monday, as opposed to being way up in the North Gulf landfalling.... Thoughts on this??

Strong steering that's all. Look at the ridge to it's NE

https://i.imgur.com/ehENM1l.png

Still, I think the lightning fast speed will be an inhibitor to significant strengthening. Just like we've seen with many past systems.....

Probably not if the conditions are favorable which it looks like they will be. Micheal landfalled as a Cat 5 three days after it formed. So I don't think forward speed will hurt it. Only things I can see that could keep somewhat of a lid on it are 95E (if it gets strong), or if 99L remains broad

[StPeteMike]

Strong steering that's all. Look at the ridge to it's NE

https://i.imgur.com/ehENM1l.png

Still, I think the lightning fast speed will be an inhibitor to significant strengthening. Just like we've seen with many past systems.....

Probably not if the conditions are favorable which it looks like they will be. Micheal landfalled as a Cat 5 three days after it formed. So I don't think forward speed will hurt it. Only things I can see that could keep somewhat of a lid on it are 95E (if it gets strong), or if 99L remains broad

Many of the modes I have seen have shown a late Tuesday or even early Wednesday location right at the Gulf Coast. I had to use Barranquilla Columbia as Point A and used New Orleans as Point B (just for references) and, if I did my math right, the distance and 6 days of traveling results to 11 mph. That would be tolerable speed to still have a storm strengthen at a high rate.

[ROCK]

AL, 99, 2021082518, , BEST, 0, 130N, 773W, 30, 1006, DB

https://i.imgur.com/8PGvzjl.png

NHC not ready to bite on the northern end of the axis yet. Looks like they took the middle of the wave axis and split the difference.

agree I never bite on mid level anything. Looks tilted so looking more SW down the wave axis for me.

[psyclone]

It's definitely not moving prohibitively fast for strengthening. It looks like a developing system with nice primative banding...unlike the blobby Grace...which still ultimately became a beefy cat 3 against all odds. Speaking of odds...start leaning into late August climo, which now favors development absent compelling reasons to the contrary.

[ConvergenceZone]

Strong steering that's all. Look at the ridge to it's NE

https://i.imgur.com/ehENM1l.png

Still, I think the lightning fast speed will be an inhibitor to significant strengthening. Just like we've seen with many past systems.....

Probably not if the conditions are favorable which it looks like they will be. Micheal landfalled as a Cat 5 three days after it formed. So I don't think forward speed will hurt it. Only things I can see that could keep somewhat of a lid on it are 95E (if it gets strong), or if 99L remains broad

Are you 100% sure that Michael was moving as fast as this is forecasted to move?

[InfernoFlameCat]

Still, I think the lightning fast speed will be an inhibitor to significant strengthening. Just like we've seen with many past systems.....

Probably not if the conditions are favorable which it looks like they will be. Micheal landfalled as a Cat 5 three days after it formed. So I don't think forward speed will hurt it. Only things I can see that could keep somewhat of a lid on it are 95E (if it gets strong), or if 99L remains broad

Are you 100% sure that Michael was moving as fast as this is forecasted to move?

It slows down toward landfall. Thats when it really RI according to models.

[ConvergenceZone]

Probably not if the conditions are favorable which it looks like they will be. Micheal landfalled as a Cat 5 three days after it formed. So I don't think forward speed will hurt it. Only things I can see that could keep somewhat of a lid on it are 95E (if it gets strong), or if 99L remains broad

Are you 100% sure that Michael was moving as fast as this is forecasted to move?

It slows down toward landfall. Thats when it really RI according to models.

I guess I don't buy the Monday landfall then. I think that is way way too fast. Maybe Tuesday Evening/Wednesday....

[lrak]

Goofy question, do the forum sayings "weak means west" and "right biased models" only apply to certain environmental conditions? Like the massive high pressure we've had this summer?