WPAC: RAI - Post-Tropical

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Whatever name Rai replaced is cursed. Rai's only been used twice, its predecessors only once... all of them retired. Won't be surprised to see it gone alongside Odette.

[mrbagyo]

Whatever name Rai replaced is cursed. Rai's only been used twice, its predecessors only once... all of them retired. Won't be surprised to see it gone alongside Odette.

Odette was used by Pagasa on Sty Usagi IIRC. It registered a 306 kpg gust in Batanes

[Monsoonjr99]

This storm really exploded today just hours before landfall.

Reminds me a bit of Bopha mixed with Kammuri and Eta.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Whatever name Rai replaced is cursed. Rai's only been used twice, its predecessors only once... all of them retired. Won't be surprised to see it gone alongside Odette.

Odette was used by Pagasa on Sty Usagi IIRC. It registered a 306 kpg gust in Batanes

I remember tracking that in the midst of the 2013 deluge of majors in the late half of the year. She was a beast but this could outdo her.

[mrbagyo]

Whatever name Rai replaced is cursed. Rai's only been used twice, its predecessors only once... all of them retired. Won't be surprised to see it gone alongside Odette.

Odette was used by Pagasa on Sty Usagi IIRC. It registered a 306 kpg gust in Batanes

I remember tracking that in the midst of the 2013 deluge of majors in the late half of the year. She was a beast but this could outdo her.

definitely, this years iteration of Odette is goin to cross a more vulnerable populace. The folks up north are very accustomed to Strong TCs, the southerners - not so much.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

definitely, this years iteration of Odette is goin to cross a more vulnerable populace. The folks up north are very accustomed to Strong TCs, the southerners - not so much.

Certainly, we're not used to storms like these at all. When I thought a category 1-2 strike over Metro Cebu was already bad, how much more could be said about a category 4-5? The only ones that I know are Haiyan and Mike, but the former went for the north tip while the other the metro itself.

Even a typhoon strike here is already rare... I don't know how we'll hold up to this, being in the northern eyewall.

[mrbagyo]

definitely, this years iteration of Odette is goin to cross a more vulnerable populace. The folks up north are very accustomed to Strong TCs, the southerners - not so much.

Certainly, we're not used to storms like these at all. When I thought a category 1-2 strike over Metro Cebu was already bad, how much more could be said about a category 4-5? The only ones that I know are Haiyan and Mike, but the former went for the north tip while the other the metro itself.

Even a typhoon strike here is already rare... I don't know how we'll hold up to this, being in the northern eyewall.

This will also baptize the new bridge (the longest one)

[xtyphooncyclonex]

This will also baptize the new bridge (the longest one)

Literally! Funny thing is, the crosses were starting to be lit yesterday. I wonder what's gonna happen to the cranes and unfinished progress.

[doomhaMwx]

Cool to see that NOAA's lightning strike density product, which simulates data from the GOES satellite, is showing lots of lightning activity in Rai's eyewall — something indeed commonly seen in rapidly intensifying TCs like this!

[stormstrike]

Nearing SIARGAO island.

[WAcyclone]

Any possible direct SAR or SMAP pass before landfall?

SMAP still has not performed a pass on Rai ever since it formed, hopefully it does before Rai makes landfall.

SMAP captured Rai at 0856 UTC on 15 December and estimated a max 10-minute wind of 67.7 kt (ca. 75.2 kt 1-min). There should be at least one additional pass of the storm later today.

[mrbagyo]

landfall is just an hour or two away

[xtyphooncyclonex]

10 hours till landfall and we're getting gale-force gusts and moderate rain. Time check 12:37. Power also acting up a bit... My aunt in Maasin said they lost power already.

[stormstrike]

might be late, but JMA upgraded to Violent (105 kts)

[mrbagyo]

[doomhaMwx]

might be late, but JMA upgraded to Violent (105 kts)

T2122(Rai)
Issued at 2021/12/16 03:45 UTC
Analisys at 12/16 03 UTC
Category TY
Scale -
Intensity Violent
Center Position N9°50′(9.8°)
E126°55′(126.9°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 915hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 55m/s(105kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75m/s(150kt)
50-kt wind area WIDE220km(120NM)
30-kt wind area NE440km(240NM)
SW280km(150NM)

[mrbagyo]

actual pressure is probably higher than JMA's estimates.

[mrbagyo]

Storm Surge in Tubajon, Dinagat - full video Link

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Landfall

[xtyphooncyclonex]

 https://twitter.com/earthshakerph/status/1471363686019203074