ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Ian2401]

what would a center relocation such as this supposed one mean in terms of future track?

[eastcoastFL]

Definitely some kind of reformation or something similar to the ESE

[eastcoastFL]

what would a center relocation such as this supposed one mean in terms of future track?

I don’t think it would mean a whole lot. It should confine about the same track maybe just tad behind schedule.

[eastcoastFL]

HWRF escapes Cuba as a 994...

#outlier

We get a new outlier every other run now it seems. I really think intensity is a total coin flip. Track is what I’m really looking at. It’s going to be all about timing. If it crosses a higher elevated part of Cuba it’s going to face trouble. But we know that could just be a game of minutes or a few miles whether it hits the mountains or the lower areas.

[AveryTheComrade]

HWRF still adamant with a Cat 4, and I'm getting more inclined to believe it. Slightly further north track with 18Z this time, hugging the southern coast of Cuba and then a mid-Cat 1 SWFL landfall

[aspen]

Recon found what is probably the old LLC at 14.4N/65.1W, pressure of 996 mbar. More defined than I thought it was going to be. However, with convection becoming more concentrated to the SE, a new circulation is likely developing there and needs to be checked. Probably just an MLC for now.

[robbielyn]

HWRF aiming for the Big Bend.

same location as GFS only it’s at 1004 mb instead of 983 for hwrf.

Lets hope we don’t see a 2004 mb anticyclone. That would be like the Great Red Spot lol.

oops hehe

[eastcoastFL]

800 PM AST Fri Jul 02 2021

...ELSA MOVING QUICKLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA AS A CATEGORY 1 HURRICANE...
...AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INVESTIGATING ELSA...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM AST...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...14.4N 65.1W
ABOUT 475 MI...765 KM ESE OF ISLA BEATA DOMINICAN REPUBLIC
ABOUT 810 MI...1305 KM ESE OF KINGSTON JAMAICA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 30 MPH...48 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1411112934923718666

[sponger]

She sure is trucking!

[NDG]

The Recon is finding Elsa just like the HWRF has been persistently forecasting it to be for this evening.
Tonight into tomorrow morning is when it forecasts Elsa to really start gaining strength.

[NDG]

When is she expected to slow down?

Not expected to really slow until at least tomorrow evening.

[captainbarbossa19]

(Elsa's LLC dies)

Euro:

(Elsa's LLC reforms)

Euro:

[ObsessedMiami]

I believe each new update has the “H” replacing the next “S” in the forecast track

[lhpfish]

I believe each new update has the “H” replacing the “S” in the forecast track

Yes, I’ve seen that as welñ

[Blown Away]

JMHO, I think we will find a center formation to the east and the LLC the NHC has been tracking since 5 has been blasting off to the W at 30 mph is dying off... The net gain will be a slower speed...

[Category5Kaiju]

(Elsa's LLC dies)

Euro:

(Elsa's LLC reforms)

Euro:

Ok, nice one. I literally choked on drinking my water laughing at that.

[tolakram]

[SFLcane]

The Recon is finding Elsa just like the HWRF has been persistently forecasting it to be for this evening.
Tonight into tomorrow morning is when it forecasts Elsa to really start gaining strength.

No lie it’s been spot one thus far.

[AnnularCane]

Would a reasonably well-developed hurricane like Elsa relocate her center? I always figured it was mainly weaker or less organized storms that did that kind of thing.

(And am I the only one getting ads for Elsa dolls on this site these last couple of days? )