ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AxaltaRacing24]

Looks ragged on IR, but it HWRF did showcase this.

It's wild to me how that model can predict short term stuff like this so well.

[tolakram]

Looks like new convection firing south of the center.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-07-96-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined

If you speed this loop up you can clearly make out the center ahead of the convection.

[GCANE]

New Vortex Message
A. Time of Center Fix: 3rd day of the month at 0:55:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 14.57N 65.33W

That has to be it, WV you can see what appears to be a broad circulation.

One or two more high-helicity towers and she could be well on her way to get stacked.

[hipshot]

Looks ragged on IR, but it HWRF did showcase this.

It's wild to me how that model can predict short term stuff like this so well.

The models are only as good as the person who wrote the software and the inputs to it.

[Category5Kaiju]

The fact that in recent years we've looking at the HWRF more as the to-go model rather than the Euro (as it was in past years) really says something. The HWRF is pretty damn good at predicting the intensities of RI storms, and in recent years we've seen this frequently happen.

[GCANE]

Looks like recon is calling it quits

[StPeteMike]

It’s going to be both interesting and nerve wrecking to see what the storm does tomorrow. Although crashing into Cuba isn’t my exact wish, dissipation would be first, that would be a better outcome than the storm missing the island to the west.

[USTropics]

Based on recon data, current low-level center is approximately here (white dot):


A bit easier to see on WV with a red dot:

[GCANE]

Looking at LL Water Vapor, MLC maybe taking a turn more to the west

[aspen]

Either Elsa is just having a hiccup and the models are overreacting, or they caught onto something and the HWRF is going to bust as hard as the Euro forecast for Typhoon Kammuri.

[USTropics]

Here is a handy graphic from CIMSS regarding DMIN and DMAX:



DMAX, when the temperature between the ocean and the air is greatest, typically begins around 3AM ET and peaks at sunrise (+ for instability and convection). DMIN, when the temperature difference between ocean and the air is least, typically peaks at sunset (— for instability and convection).

[GCANE]

Feeder Band and Outflow are both improving.
DMAX could give a good shot of Red Bull.

[abajan]

PEOPLE THIS HAS TO BE A HURRICANE THE SOUTH OF THE ISLAND IS GETTING HAMMERED!!!!!! Has to be atleast 95 mph gusts!!!!!

14 hours later just got back electricity. Surely was the strongest we've had since Tomas in 2010, whenever a system comes from the south of the island its 100% the most dangerous then. Hurricane Elsa was.A.RIDE! I'm just hoping Haiti and Jamaica are not affected as badly

Glad to hear your power's been restored. Mine went off just after noon and returned at around 4:40 pm. My water was off for a while too, but it's back on now. Hopefully we get through the rest of the hurricane season without getting slammed by another tropical cyclone. First, it was the freak thunderstorm outbreak just 15 days ago, now a hurricane. Good grief!

[GCANE]

Upper levels cooling off and as expected, convection strengthening.

[tolakram]

saved loop. LLC partially covered again.

[USTropics]

A hot tower just formed to the north of the LLC, let's see if Elsa can begin to rotate this hot tower (highlighted in pink) towards the SW and around the center. In addition, there was a mid-level complex that formed earlier this evening out in front of Elsa (highlighted in teal), and this is also showing signs of being pulled back towards the center of the system:



CIMSS mid-level vort from 3 hours ago:

[StormTracker]

Looking at LL Water Vapor, MLC maybe taking a turn more to the west

MLC follows the LLC, right?

[GCANE]

This early in the season, upper levels are still relatively cold.
A key ingredient in developing strong convection.

[wxman57]

I'm not seeing it strengthening. May be a TS already. Perhaps the Euro, ICON, and recently the GFS are right in weakening it significantly over the next 24-36 hrs.

[AveryTheComrade]

Looks as though Elsa is doing what the HWRF has continued to predict and (as Levi mentioned in his video) what needs to happen for it to strengthen further. Really have to see how it progresses tomorrow though.