Moderator: S2k Moderators
StormTracker wrote:GCANE wrote:Looking at LL Water Vapor, MLC maybe taking a turn more to the west
MLC follows the LLC, right?
wxman57 wrote:I'm not seeing it strengthening. May be a TS already. Perhaps the Euro, ICON, and recently the GFS are right in weakening it significantly over the next 24-36 hrs.
GCANE wrote:StormTracker wrote:GCANE wrote:Looking at LL Water Vapor, MLC maybe taking a turn more to the west
MLC follows the LLC, right?
In a tilted vort column, with the LLC moving west, yes.
However, strong helicity towers in the MLC drives angular momentum from the mid levels down to the surface causing the LLC to reform back towards the MLC.
InfernoFlameCat wrote:What is dmax
GrayLancer18 wrote:Elsa is another case of a system missing one ingredient to make it historic in terms of power.
Had it been going 10 mph less, we might've be looking now at a major hurricane with a probability of dethroning Emily 2005 as July's most powerful hurricane.
(Can it still be a major? Maybe, but the odds are slipping by each hour it doesn't slow down to stack.)
.gif){kind=small}
wxman57 wrote:I'm not seeing it strengthening. May be a TS already. Perhaps the Euro, ICON, and recently the GFS are right in weakening it significantly over the next 24-36 hrs.
. It could just be my imagination....The latest GFS and UKMET models indicate that Elsa will be
moving into the center of a 300-200-mb synoptic-scale anticyclone,
which would produce enhanced outflow jets to the north and south of
the cyclone, resulting in significant strengthening. If Elsa ends up
'threading-the-needle' between Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba, then
subsequent intensity forecasts may have to be increased similar to
the much stronger HWRF model.
abajan wrote:Stormybajan wrote:Stormybajan wrote:PEOPLE THIS HAS TO BE A HURRICANE THE SOUTH OF THE ISLAND IS GETTING HAMMERED!!!!!! Has to be atleast 95 mph gusts!!!!!
14 hours later just got back electricity. Surely was the strongest we've had since Tomas in 2010, whenever a system comes from the south of the island its 100% the most dangerous then. Hurricane Elsa was.A.RIDE! I'm just hoping Haiti and Jamaica are not affected as badly
Glad to hear your power's been restored. Mine went off just after noon and returned at around 4:40 pm. My water was off for a while too, but it's back on now. Hopefully we get through the rest of the hurricane season without getting slammed by another tropical cyclone. First, it was the freak thunderstorm outbreak just 15 days ago, now a hurricane. Good grief!
Ken711 wrote:NHC 11:00 pM discussion:The latest GFS and UKMET models indicate that Elsa will be
moving into the center of a 300-200-mb synoptic-scale anticyclone,
which would produce enhanced outflow jets to the north and south of
the cyclone, resulting in significant strengthening. If Elsa ends up
'threading-the-needle' between Haiti, Jamaica, and Cuba, then
subsequent intensity forecasts may have to be increased similar to
the much stronger HWRF model.
Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 17 guests
