WPAC: SURIGAE - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

Wow. I feel for the Philippines.

Even with La Nina in 2020, the WPAC not only produced the strongest TC globally but the strongest LANDFALLIJNG TC in globally recorded history.

The Philippines landstrike.

Now they are on the cusp on a potential landfall.

No news media?

[Iceresistance]

When are the TC reports on the Typhoons in 2020 coming out?

[1900hurricane]

When are the TC reports on the Typhoons in 2020 coming out?

Not until after the one for 2019 comes out.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Thing is going to be a beast. Can anyone provide the site they are using? I cannot see it on Goes East...
I am on weathernerds for it.
Anyhow it looks like a high range ts now with a CDO and distinct feeding bands.

[Iceresistance]

Thing is going to be a beast. Can anyone provide the site they are using? I cannot see it on Goes East...
I am on weathernerds for it.
Anyhow it looks like a high range ts now with a CDO and distinct feeding bands.

Don't forget this site! https://www.windy.com/

[1900hurricane]

Slowly and steadily organizing.

[aspen]

If the HWRF is correct, Surigae will remain a weak and not very well organized storm until overnight Thursday going j to Friday. It has been showing a drier pocket in the moisture field and offset MLC/LLC, indicating a poorly organized structure due to some shear — not a ton, but enough to hamper it. Early Friday, the MLC and LLC align, and the moisture field improves. This is when Surigae finally starts to take off.

The HWRF proved to be excellent with short-term intensity and structure predictions last year. Let’s see if that good performance continues.

[Iceresistance]

ASCAT direct hit

[cycloneye]

Up to 45 kts.

02W SURIGAE 210414 1800 8.9N 136.8E WPAC 45 993

[Hayabusa]

EPS 12Z, still not out of the wood

[Hayabusa]

When are the TC reports on the Typhoons in 2020 coming out?

Not until after the one for 2019 comes out.

In comparison back in February 2020 we already had the 2018 report, is covid to blame.

[aspen]

According to the HWRF, Friday will likely be the day Surigae finally goes nuclear. It’ll remain disorganized but finally stack its MLC/LLC on Thursday, and for Friday, it shows a well-organized storm moving over 29-30C SSTs waters with moderate to high OHC. The window for strengthening is open for around two days, before SSTs drop to 27-28C and it begins to curve to the NE. Or it runs into the Philippines. The HWRF had one of the closest tracks to the Philippines but has shifted significantly further east this run.

[aspen]

It's very apparent that Surigae is being significantly impacted by shear coming from the east. However, convection-wise, it's doing decent, with a lot of <-80C cloud tops firing off as the Sun rises. Bursts like these should keep Surigae's intensity stable, and maybe lead to some slight strengthening, before shear lessens by later tomorrow.

[JW-_-]

Those white areas are showing as in the -120c range on the scale.

[aspen]

https://i.imgur.com/iLhCsd0.png
Those white areas are showing as in the -120c range on the scale.

No, they’re in the -90C to -95C range. The coldest cloud top temps come from Kammuri, around -108C if I remember correctly. It didn’t get to -120C.

[JW-_-]

Have a look at the loop on weathernerds floaters IR there have been some white spots in amongst the pink during the loop.
Pink shading shows cloud top temperatures below -80 degrees celsius and white areas in the middle is the coldest cloud tops where temperatures may have been below -100 degrees

No expert here just a keen tc follower.

[cycloneye]

02W SURIGAE 210415 0000 9.0N 136.4E WPAC 50 992

[mrbagyo]

[JW-_-]

Mass deep convection right over the island.

[JW-_-]

06 ens nudged a tad further west


v the 18z tracks.


leave it here a watch as an observer.