ATL: CLAUDETTE - Remnants - Discussion

[wxman57]

First time flying with kids ( 4 yo and 5) in to Mobile at 3:30p on Saturday.

Should I be concerned?

Could be some heavy rain/squalls there Friday night and Saturday morning. Flight delays are likely, even if weather is great up there in Dallas, your plane may be coming from an area where there are delays.

[Frank P]

Pretty strong vorticity developing near 23N 93 W right under the mid- level low

Watching that interesting little vort on the vis sat long loop image it appears to be basically rotating around the large gyre and now looks to be heading southwest… this gyre has produced several vortices rotating around the system and none yet have become dominate… I think once the HH get there around noonish we finally get the office center… IMO.

Yes Frank I agree it and others are rotating around the gyre. This one interests me a bit more because I haven’t seen it depicted on any models yet and the shear is less because it’s under the mid level low. It may go puff in a couple hours also.
HH will be out there a while today I think trying to get a good fix.

Point taken, but if you watch the long loop vis sat loop images there is another vort to the east of the one at 93W around 91W that is just as vigorous. Pick your poison…

[chaser1]

In the "for what it's worth" category, NAM now evolves a surface to 500mb low at around 24N & 90W over the course of the afternoon (and has become more bullish then other models). Only mentioning this here (rather then the Model discussion) because in spite of the present LLC appearing approx 2 degrees further west (near 23.0 & 93.5) this near-term NAM depiction somewhat better represents potential genesis with regard to latitude. We'll likely see this small area of vorticity make a small cyclonic loop within the broad gyre today but it seems to be reasonably positioned to become the dominant LLC if convection with this feature is able to sustain itself today.

[canetracker]

In the "for what it's worth" category, NAM now evolves a surface to 500mb low at around 24N & 90W over the course of the afternoon (and has become more bullish then other models). Only mentioning this here (rather then the Model discussion) because in spite of the present LLC appearing approx 2 degrees further west (near 23.0 & 93.5) this near-term NAM depiction somewhat better represents potential genesis with regard to latitude. We'll likely see this small area of vorticity make a small cyclonic loop within the broad gyre today but it seems to be reasonably positioned to become the dominant LLC if convection with this feature is able to sustain itself today.

That is interesting. Can't wait til recon starts investigating.

[Subtrop]

WTNT21 KNGU 171400
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (92L)//
RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.3N 92.5W TO 24.6N 91.6W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 171400Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 20.5N 92.5W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWARD AT 05
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS PRODUCING A WIDESPREAD REGION OF
DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE GULF. SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS OF 25 TO 30 KT ARE LOCATED ABOUT 100NM NORTH OF THE TIP OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA WITHIN THE STRONGER CONVECTION. THIS SYSYTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE GENERALLY NORTHWARD AND A TROPICAL OR SUBTROPICAL
DEPRESSION IS LIKELY TO FORM OVER THE WEST-CENTRALL GULF OF MEXICO
TONIGHT OR FRIDAY MORNING.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 181400Z.//
BT
#0001
NNNN

[USTropics]

Latest video from Levi:

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1405530007607283733

[jasons2k]

Morning update from Jeff Lindner:

There has been little change to the overall structure of 92L since yesterday morning. There continues to be a broad area of surface low pressure at the southern end of a trough axis that extends NE across the Gulf of Mexico toward the central Gulf coast. An upper level trough and large mass of dry air is located over the extreme western Gulf of Mexico resulting in W/SW shear across the broad surface pressure minimum and trough axis. 92L remains very disorganized and convection scattered in clusters mainly across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and the Yucatan.

Global models continue to suggest that a more consolidated surface low pressure system will form with 92L and move northward in the general direction of Louisiana over the next 24-48 hours. Where any more defined surface low may form is still in question, but the general model consensus continues to keep the majority of the impacts east of SE TX and aimed toward the central and eastern US Gulf coast.

Local Impacts:
Minimal impacts are expected as the tropical system passes generally SE and E of our area. Winds will begin to back to the E and NE later today into Friday and increase into the 20-25kt range over the coastal waters mainly east of Galveston. Seas will build into the 4-6 ft range Friday into Saturday. The combination of NE surface winds and building offshore swells will yield increasing tides along the upper TX coast, but guidance is keeping values in the 3-4 ft range for total water level or about 1.0-1.5 feet above normal. This is generally below levels that cause any significant issues. Would not be surprised to see a bit of run-up at times of high tide near the vulnerable east end of Bolivar and some minor flooding. Rain chances will increase from the SE starting Friday afternoon and linger into Saturday, but there will likely be a sharp gradient with any rainfall with 92L over SE TX with mainly areas ESE of Galveston Bay having the better chances of squalls moving onshore as drier air wraps into the west side of the system.

Moisture values actually increase more late in the weekend into early next week as 92L pulls NE away from the area and a cool front approaches from the north. We may actually see better chances of active weather early next week than with 92L locally.

[Chemmers]

Maybe some overshooting cloud top near the center?

[tolakram]

SLIDER floater
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=mesoscale_02&x=986&y=1098&z=1&angle=0&im=28&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=band_02&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

UW-M
https://whirlwind.aos.wisc.edu/~wxp/goes16/grb/meso_vis_sqrt/meso2_60.html

[Steve]

First time flying with kids ( 4 yo and 5) in to Mobile at 3:30p on Saturday.

Should I be concerned?

Bring an umbrella and raincoats.

[Sciencerocks]

[Aric Dunn]

Just a little more convection with that vort max and off we go..

of course there is always the option that another center forms farther east in the deep convection at anytime..

[chaser1]

Trough certainly appears to be sharpening around 23N and 92W with that SSW surface inflow feed just south & east from there. Could still be transient but a LLC pinching off and developing somewhere around this point seems more reasonable then a new LLC forming as far south as 20N.

[Aric Dunn]

Given the liklihood of the broad circ in the southern BOC washing out pretty quick once an LLC takes hold farther east I don't think we will see much a NW motion any longer. this puts Alabama and FLorida Panhandle into play.

add in the center getting pulled/reforming at any moment farther east/NE and panhandle landfall comes into view.

[tropicwatch]

I would rather it came in around Mobile. The panhandle would most likely get more rain that way. We are in desperate need of rain.

[cajungal]

Leaving for Orange Beach Sunday morning from Thibodaux area (hour SW of New Orleans) Hoping the worse of the weather will be over for the 4 hour drive.

[SunnyThoughts]

Leaving for Orange Beach Sunday morning from Thibodaux area (hour SW of New Orleans) Hoping the worse of the weather will be over for the 4 hour drive.

Hoping you have a nice trip. They are calling for 5 to 8 inches of rain between tomorrow night and Monday in the coastal areas of Alabama. Hopefully you get some breaks in there to enjoy your trip.

[psyclone]

It looks like TX is too far west and peninsular FL is too far east but everyone else from the FL panhandle to LA is fair game for buckets of QPF. Standard issue broad, loose and wet Gulf June slop fest. Our bloomin' onion early season appetizer is likely on deck.

[Steve]

Given the liklihood of the broad circ in the southern BOC washing out pretty quick once an LLC takes hold farther east I don't think we will see much a NW motion any longer. this puts Alabama and FLorida Panhandle into play.

add in the center getting pulled/reforming at any moment farther east/NE and panhandle landfall comes into view.

I'm on the panhandle, and I don't see that happening with this system. There's too much of a high pressure push from the east and southeast.
https://ocean.weather.gov/Loops/index.p ... s=3&loop=1

GFS at 500mb shows the high pressure building in (darker reds for those who don't look at upper steering)
https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 61712&fh=6

There may be some slightly eastern reformations, but the trajectory at/near landfall (36-42 hours) appears to be somewhere in the range of North to North-Northeast. I agree with wx57 in that maybe an adjustment toward Terrebonne Bay or even Grand Isle could be where the center comes in (vs. Cameron/Vermilion Parishes in SWLA which it looked like earlier in the week). But certainly the farther east it landfalls matters for who gets the bulk of the rainfall which is the main threat with 92L. And the Panhandle might come into play for that. If the 3km NAM is right (vs. 12km and FV3-Hi-res) and we get at tightening low, there could be squalls closer to the center as well. So that would matter for those folks.

Either way, I don't see landfall east of 90.5. I'll be the first one to say I was wrong if I am.

[eastcoastFL]