ATL: ELSA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

You can clearly see the ML vorticity taking over, wouldn't be long before it gets stacked.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/JeremyDeHart53d/status/1410232887463579651

[HurricaneEnzo]

https://twitter.com/JeremyDeHart53d/status/1410232887463579651

Welp may be another straight to TS special.

[Iceresistance]

Now up to 60/80%

1. A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the
Windward Islands. This system is producing a large area of showers
and thunderstorms that continues to show some signs of organization.
Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few
days while the system moves west-northwestward at about 20 mph.
Interests in the Windward and Leeward Islands should closely
monitor this system as it will likely be moving through that region
on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

[abajan]

https://twitter.com/JeremyDeHart53d/status/1410232887463579651

Welp may be another straight to TS special.

Even if it isn't upgraded to a tropical cyclone, seems to me a PTC advisory is in order at 11 o'clock, seeing that it's likely to start affecting us (Barbados) within 48 hours' time.

[AutoPenalti]

This is developing fast.

[eastcoastFL]

SFWMD Tropical Outlook June 30

A strong tropical wave and a possible broad area of surface low pressure are located about 1050 miles east-southeast of the Windward Islands this morning. Showers and thunderstorms associated with this disturbance are becoming better organized with banding-type features developing, and environmental conditions are conducive for the wave to become a tropical depression or storm before reaching the Caribbean on Friday. The potential tropical cyclone is expected to move westward and then west-northwestward into the eastern and central Caribbean Sea this weekend but with an unknown path after that time. It is unclear at the moment whether this system would pose a possible threat to the District, but if it does so, it would be late in the weekend to early next week.

[eastcoastFL]

Now up to 60/80%

1. A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the
Windward Islands. This system is producing a large area of showers
and thunderstorms that continues to show some signs of organization.
Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few
days while the system moves west-northwestward at about 20 mph.
Interests in the Windward and Leeward Islands should closely
monitor this system as it will likely be moving through that region
on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

https://s6.gifyu.com/images/two_atl_5d1.png

It’ll probably get bumped to 70/90 at 11am

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Developing tropical storm.

[Ubuntwo]

Now up to 60/80%

1. A broad area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is
located about midway between the west coast of Africa and the
Windward Islands. This system is producing a large area of showers
and thunderstorms that continues to show some signs of organization.
Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for development,
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next few
days while the system moves west-northwestward at about 20 mph.
Interests in the Windward and Leeward Islands should closely
monitor this system as it will likely be moving through that region
on Friday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

https://s6.gifyu.com/images/two_atl_5d1.png

It’ll probably get bumped to 70/90 at 11am

TWOs are issued with a 3 hour offset from advisories, the next will come out at 2pm.

[InfernoFlameCat]

I could be wrong but this looks better than when Laura first became a depression.

Laura was one ugly depression. Multiple centers were competing. This is definitely better looking.

[Evil Jeremy]

I’m going out of state on vacation tomorrow until July 8… Was watching 95L over the weekend wondering if I’d need to take some precautionary measures… had some relief Monday when those odds started to drop…. Now back in that original bucket. It’s never an encouraging sign when waves spin together as quickly as this. I’ve seen this story before. 95L eating up the dry air ahead of 97L had a big effect. Cleared the way for this.

[Iceresistance]

I could be wrong but this looks better than when Laura first became a depression.

Laura was one ugly depression. Multiple centers were competing. This is definitely better looking.

Same here, but this allowed Laura to become Powerful in the GoM

[SFLcane]

You can clearly see the ML vorticity taking over, wouldn't be long before it gets stacked.

https://i.imgur.com/Djx5YfD.gif

It's getting very close. Nice post

[Iceresistance]

You can clearly see the ML vorticity taking over, wouldn't be long before it gets stacked.

https://i.imgur.com/Djx5YfD.gif

It's getting very close. Nice post

It’s the Last Day of June! This shouldn’t normally happen until at least August!

Maybe 2020 caused this to happen for the next 9 years . . .

[wxman57]

https://twitter.com/JeremyDeHart53d/status/1410232887463579651

Welp may be another straight to TS special.

Even if it isn't upgraded to a tropical cyclone, seems to me a PTC advisory is in order at 11 o'clock, seeing that it's likely to start affecting us (Barbados) within 48 hours' time.

It doesn't meet the NHC's "High" chance of development within 48 hrs for PTC advisories. However, development chances are just as high within 48 hrs as beyond 48 hrs.

[aspen]

https://twitter.com/JeremyDeHart53d/status/1410232887463579651

Welp may be another straight to TS special.

Unfortunately not this advisory, but if trends continue then they could go straight to TS Elsa at 5pm.

[SFLcane]

Some speculation you can see the trof on the GFS swing by and weaken the ridge opening the door for 97L to eventually head north. Euro also shows the trof digging

[Shell Mound]

Some speculation you can see the trof on the GFS swing by and weaken the ridge opening the door for 97L to eventually head north. Euro also shows the trof digging

https://i.postimg.cc/63Hf81jf/yea1.jpg

97L is likely to dissipate around 70°W, however, so I would not focus beyond the Lesser Antilles at this stage. The Windward Islands should watch closely.

[SoupBone]

Some speculation you can see the trof on the GFS swing by and weaken the ridge opening the door for 97L to eventually head north. Euro also shows the trof digging

https://i.postimg.cc/63Hf81jf/yea1.jpg

Aren't troughs digging into the south this time of year just as whacky as storms forming? Are we just getting an overall weather pattern change early this year? Seems like those puzzle pieces are fitting together nicely. That path looks like a damn October path.