ATL: FRED - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Evil Jeremy]

I get the sense NHC will start PTC advisories at 11am. If they want to get early watches/warnings up for the Lesser Antilles, I'm not sure they should wait until 5pm. NHC has been using the "shorter-than-normal lead times" line since (from what I can see) last night's 8pm TWO. Well, that lead time is only getting shorter and shorter, and whatever effects the Antilles will feel should start tonight. So, if I was a betting man, I'd say get ready for advisories this morning. We shall see though. This morning's TWO being attributed to two meteorologists leads me to think that NHC is in go-mode this morning.

[InfernoFlameCat]

This storm is in go mode. The vorticity is clearly spinning up. Looking at that I find it beautiful. I love lots of convection surrounding a center.

[NDG]

24 hr WV loop, the dry air environemnt ahead of it has not be a problem for 94L so far, it has its own moist pouch, with no shear in place it should stay like that for at least in the short term.

[Aric Dunn]

Looking better and better... if we had recon this would be a TD already.

[SoupBone]

24 hr WV loop, the dry air environemnt ahead of it has not be a problem for 94L so far, it has its own moist pouch, with no shear in place it should stay like that for at least in the short term.

https://i.imgur.com/YLMClmG.gif

What's pushing it or potentially pushing it more NW? Is the high eroding or supposed to in that area?

[Aric Dunn]

24 hr WV loop, the dry air environemnt ahead of it has not be a problem for 94L so far, it has its own moist pouch, with no shear in place it should stay like that for at least in the short term.

https://i.imgur.com/YLMClmG.gif

What's pushing it or potentially pushing it more NW? Is the high eroding or supposed to in that area?

I still have yet to find a mechanism for the sudden wnw to NW motion. Hence why it still has not made that turn yet. more southerly shifts to come it seems.

[ronjon]

As others have noted, believe we have a tropical depression now. Good consolidation of convection and vigorous LLC. Probably still some separation between MLC and LLC so that may keep it in check strength wise for now.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/JakeCarstens/status/1424715967922323458

[Category5Kaiju]

Wow, just woke up and it looks like we could see a TD soon

[AutoPenalti]

24 hr WV loop, the dry air environemnt ahead of it has not be a problem for 94L so far, it has its own moist pouch, with no shear in place it should stay like that for at least in the short term.

https://i.imgur.com/YLMClmG.gif

What's pushing it or potentially pushing it more NW? Is the high eroding or supposed to in that area?

I still have yet to find a mechanism for the sudden wnw to NW motion. Hence why it still has not made that turn yet. more southerly shifts to come it seems.

Weak Mid-level ridging seems to be the culprit, but that's only dependent on whether the center relocates further north.

[cycloneye]

AL, 94, 2021080912, , BEST, 0, 133N, 577W, 25, 1010, LO

[NDG]

24 hr WV loop, the dry air environemnt ahead of it has not be a problem for 94L so far, it has its own moist pouch, with no shear in place it should stay like that for at least in the short term.

https://i.imgur.com/YLMClmG.gif

What's pushing it or potentially pushing it more NW? Is the high eroding or supposed to in that area?

There is a slight weakness forecasted to be north of Hispaniola south of Bermuda to the south of the ridge pushing westerward before the ridge sets over the western Atlantic waters off of the Carolinas so I would expect it will gain some latitude after passing the Windward/Leeward Islands, the question is how much.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1424721941924098049

[aspen]

:double:

https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1424721941924098049

Off topic but that model is also picking up on the potential Caribbean Crusier/MDR storm from the wave currently leaving Africa. We should see a lemon on it in the next few days.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

This is a developing tropical cyclone and could be one by tomorrow morning should trends continue.

[Weatherboy1]

Looks like the tropics may not want me to have to suffer through watching my newly roster-depleted Cubs team play in Miami this Saturday! Lol. But in all seriousness, do need to watch and see how models sort out in next 24/48 hours here in South Florida. Definitely looks to be getting it’s act together.

[SFLcane]

Could be a batch of showers or a tropical cyclone SFL at this point who knows.

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/RudyMeteo/status/1424720370842718217



Bottom line: so far 94L is tracking well to the south of the guidance.

[Shell Mound]

Could be a batch of showers or a tropical cyclone SFL at this point who knows.

https://i.postimg.cc/8cTXKN4g/29423-A2-F-EEF5-4-D59-8480-9777-AFA24436.png

 https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1424730715225161735



At this point I’d bet on “patch of showers.” There is a strong consensus that the ULL near Florida will impart sufficient VWS to prevent strengthening.

[tolakram]

COD 200 frame floater
https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=meso-meso1-02-200-1-100-1&checked=map&colorbar=undefined