ATL: FRED - Models

[AnnularCane]

Pretty clear on 18z HWRF if PTC6 can get away from land it would develop. PTC6 is a land lover on the HWRF.

Another one? Maybe MDR temps were the wrong things to agonize over.

[toad strangler]

Pretty clear on 18z HWRF if PTC6 can get away from land it would develop. PTC6 is a land lover on the HWRF.

This run is not going to end well for SFL.

All I ever hear is don't use it for track

[tolakram]

As far as intensity verification, we should know in 42 hours or less. Here's the strongest frame prior to crossing Hispaniola.



North of Cuba at 105 hours

[Blown Away]

Pretty clear on 18z HWRF if PTC6 can get away from land it would develop. PTC6 is a land lover on the HWRF.

This run is not going to end well for SFL.

All I ever hear is don't use it for track

IMO will end as a Cat 1/2 hurricane near Keys... Big shift in intensity

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

HWRF being the HWRF, but apparently not seeing any bad conditions.

[SFLcane]

Moving NW…

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

[toad strangler]

HWRF exits the DR at 60 hours and never hits terra firma again until the tip of SFL

[GeneratorPower]

Yeah but this HWRF is the size of a golf ball.

[tolakram]

Entire run

[Nimbus]

Some of the models on the18Z runs are showing stronger ridging that tracks the storm further west. South shore of Puerto Rico is still likely to get raked by squalls. After Hispaniola we've seen many storms so torn up that they no longer have sufficient pressure gradient to recover. But if the HWRF is correct and a core reemerges and develops then the ridge evolution is going to be critical since the track will follow the western periphery of the ridge. So south Florida and west coast are targeted this run.

[AlphaToOmega]

The HWRF strengthens Potential Tropical Cyclone 06L into an 85-knot 979 mb hurricane. Storms in this area are very sensitive to initial conditions, for a subtle change in trajectory could mean the difference between dissipation over Hispaniola and rapid intensification over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.

[Keldeo1997]

Wow that Outflow channel

[tolakram]

18Z Euro

[aspen]

18z HMON has Fred peak as a high end TS, but it’s further south than the HWRF so the storm runs over the spine of Cuba after Hispaniola and dies.

[jlauderdal]

18Z Euro

Everything trending west as usual, the struggle is real with ridges

[SFLcane]

Cuba still waiting for their Cat2 from Elsa. One day hwrf will get it right.

[AutoPenalti]

sucks that after excelling in 2020, the hwrf is likely about to be the donkey of 2021