CPAC: LINDA - Post-Tropical

[weeniepatrol]

Good-looking hurricane. I certainly had my doubts

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 AUG 2021 Time : 225031 UTC
Lat : 17:36:36 N Lon : 113:07:12 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 959.4mb/102.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 5.2 5.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 22 km

Center Temp : +14.5C Cloud Region Temp : -52.7C

Scene Type : EYE

[Kingarabian]

Might run into Felicia like Dvorak issues if the CDO keeps shrinking like this.

[Yellow Evan]

TXPZ23 KNES 132357
TCSENP

A. 12E (LINDA)

B. 13/2330Z

C. 17.7N

D. 113.3W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T5.0/5.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...A WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG AND EMBEDDED IN MG YIELDS A DT
OF 5.0 AFTER AN EYE ADJ OF 0.5. MET AND PT AGREE AND ARE EQUAL TO 5.0
BASED ON A DEVELOPMENT TREND IN THE LAST 24 HOURS. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TUGGLE

[Kingarabian]

Felicia 2.0 coming soon (probably will be larger in size though):

[aspen]

Felicia 2.0 coming soon:
https://i.imgur.com/tj9mAVr.png

I guess this is a theme this season: either produce ugly junk storms that fail to live up to model support, or produce a small amount of substantial storms that are going to be underestimated by Dvorak/ADT.

[Yellow Evan]

CDO not too thick but much more circular. Westerly shear is less obvious now and a solid B ring has suddenly emerged on the W side. If trends continue, Linda will make a run at Category 4 status.

[Kingarabian]

Gonna need the NHC to override ADT, as it will be weighing down the consensus.

[Yellow Evan]

Pointing special attention to how much more circular the eye has gotten today. This is a sign of strengthening despite fluctuating cloud top temperatures.

[Yellow Evan]

:uarrow: Gonna need the NHC to override ADT, as it will be weighing down the consensus.

NHC needs to request special Dvorak fixes from TAFB and SAB if this keeps up and a B ring fully forms.

[Kingarabian]

NHC up to 105kts.

[Astromanía]

it seems there are 9 mariners living on Clarion island right now, it's gonna be a rough time for them

[Astromanía]

Wonder if it has dry air to its north or it's just transitioning to an annular shape now, I mean she is strengthening but it is losing convection to its north

[Yellow Evan]

GFS version *
* EAST PACIFIC 2021 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* LINDA EP122021 08/14/21 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
V (KT) NO LAND 105 106 106 105 100 93 86 80 78 75 73 68 63 58 52 45 40
V (KT) LAND 105 106 106 105 100 93 86 80 78 75 73 68 63 58 52 45 40
V (KT) LGEM 105 107 106 102 97 85 76 69 63 59 57 55 49 42 35 28 23
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 8 7 5 4 6 7 4 4 5 3 2 2 2 3 5 8 9
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 6 3 1 2 2 0 -2 -4 -1 1 4 7 3 4 3 4
SHEAR DIR 7 36 54 66 91 99 49 67 75 325 35 284 93 203 165 202 202
SST (C) 27.5 27.8 28.1 27.8 26.8 26.5 26.2 25.2 25.3 26.0 26.0 25.3 24.1 23.1 22.7 23.0 23.5
POT. INT. (KT) 140 143 146 143 132 129 125 115 116 123 123 116 104 94 90 92 97
200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -52.9 -52.8 -53.2 -52.6 -53.1 -52.6 -52.8 -52.3 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6
200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 -0.2
TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 2 2 1 1 1 1
700-500 MB RH 72 69 69 66 62 62 56 56 51 50 47 48 44 39 35 32 27
MODEL VTX (KT) 23 22 24 24 24 25 25 25 26 25 25 24 22 18 15 11 8
850 MB ENV VOR -23 -30 -29 -19 -20 -4 1 16 35 52 58 67 59 56 51 50 46
200 MB DIV 20 4 -3 16 13 -13 0 -12 14 -6 -14 -32 -19 -12 6 -3 -7
700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 3 6 0 4 1 0 0 -1 0 0 3 3 0
LAND (KM) 672 699 745 802 857 1016 1205 1399 1559 1727 1866 1997 2130 1965 1741 1577 1482
LAT (DEG N) 17.7 18.2 18.6 18.9 19.1 19.2 18.9 18.4 18.0 17.8 18.0 18.6 19.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x
LONG(DEG W) 113.3 114.4 115.5 116.7 117.9 120.1 122.1 124.1 125.9 127.9 129.8 131.8 133.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x
STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 11 12 11 10 10 9 9 10 9 10 11 12 11 10 9
HEAT CONTENT 6 7 9 7 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6
T-12 MAX WIND: 90 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 516 (MEAN=587)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0)
PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -10. -18. -26. -34. -40. -44. -48. -50. -54. -58. -63. -68.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. 13.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
PERSISTENCE 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2.
200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -11.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 4. 2. 3. 1. -2. -5. -8. -11. -12.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2.
850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4.
GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6.
RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4.
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. -0. -5. -12. -19. -25. -27. -30. -32. -37. -42. -47. -53. -60. -65.

CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 105. LAT, LON: 17.7 113.3

** 2021 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122021 LINDA 08/14/21 00 UTC **
(SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h)

Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 35.7 40.5 to 149.3 0.00 0.0
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.56 999.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 10.0 -33.0 to 159.5 0.22 999.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 19.6 to 1.3 0.73 999.0
MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 105.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 999.0
BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 502.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.34 999.0
HEAT CONTENT (KJ/CM2) : 6.2 2.7 to 106.7 0.03 999.0
%area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 56.6 to 0.0 1.00 999.0
2nd PC OF IR BR TEMP : 0.5 2.2 to -2.3 0.37 999.0

SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%)
SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%)

Matrix of RI probabilities
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72
------------------------------------------------------------------------------
SHIPS-RII: 10.7% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Logistic: 3.6% 2.6% 1.8% 1.4% 0.2% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0%
Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Consensus: 4.8% 5.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0%
DTOPS: 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122021 LINDA 08/14/21 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##

[Sciencerocks]

[Yellow Evan]

T6.0.

Edit: LG is short.

[Kingarabian]

Hour old SSMIS F16 pass has it open to the west. Probably still a Cat.3. Eyewall should be closed and much more intense. That being said, still has a lot of time ahead of it to peak.

[Astromanía]

Off topic but I like the fact EPAC can produce majors almost at any time of the season compared to ATL where majors are very rare until mid August, both basins work different from each other

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE LINDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122021
900 PM MDT FRI AUG 13 2021

Enhanced BD-curve infrared satellite imagery shows that Linda's
inner core has become much better organized during the past few
hours. The eye temperature has warmed to about 13c and the eyewall
temperatures have cooled to -66 to -69c, and in fact, this thick
black ring is a little more than 80 percent closed. Based on these
inner cloud pattern improvements, the initial intensity for this
advisory is adjusted up to 105 kt.

Linda still has a chance through early saturday to strengthen some
more, and this is indicated in the forecast. By Saturday night,
Linda is expected to move over decreasing oceanic temperatures
(25-26c) and enter a more stable and drier thermodynamic
surrounding environment. These inhibiting contributions should
induce a steady weakening trend through day 3. For the remaining
portion of the forecast, the cyclone should weaken a little more
rapidly as it moves over even cooler (sub 24c) sea surface
temperatures. The NHC intensity forecast is based on a blend of
the NOAA HCCA and IVCN consensus aids, and is just below the
decay SHIPS model.

The initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 300/11
kt. Linda is forecast to move in a west-northwestward to westward
motion during the next couple of days. Afterward, the large-scale
models show a mid-tropospheric high pressure anchored over the
southwestern united states building westward over the eastern
pacific and to the northwest of the cyclone. In response to the
changing synoptic steering pattern, Linda is expected to turn
west-southwestward by early next week. The official track forecast
has not changed much at all, and closely follows the better
performing TVCN multi-model consensus.

Slight adjustments were made to Linda's wind radii based on earlier
METOP-A and B scatterometer overpasses.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 14/0300Z 17.9N 113.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
12H 14/1200Z 18.5N 115.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 15/0000Z 19.1N 117.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 15/1200Z 19.2N 120.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 16/0000Z 18.9N 121.9W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 16/1200Z 18.5N 123.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 17/0000Z 18.1N 125.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 18/0000Z 18.1N 129.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
120H 19/0000Z 19.5N 134.1W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS

[Astromanía]

It is not forecasted but I think she has a chance to be a cat 4 hurricane, just needs to continue with the intensification without problems (dry air and shear), it has time