ATL: GRACE - Remnants - Discussion

[IsabelaWeather]

Might be starting to form a feeder band to the south, lets see how it plays out.

[Sciencerocks]

[AlphaToOmega]

AL, 95, 2021081212, , BEST, 0, 142N, 412W, 30, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 120, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 020,
AL, 95, 2021081218, , BEST, 0, 144N, 430W, 30, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 120, 20, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 020,
AL, 95, 2021081300, , BEST, 0, 148N, 448W, 30, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 120, 20, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 020,
AL, 95, 2021081306, , BEST, 0, 152N, 465W, 30, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 120, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 020,

[AubreyStorm]

AL, 95, 2021081212, , BEST, 0, 142N, 412W, 30, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 120, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 020,
AL, 95, 2021081218, , BEST, 0, 144N, 430W, 30, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 120, 20, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 020,
AL, 95, 2021081300, , BEST, 0, 148N, 448W, 30, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 120, 20, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 020,
AL, 95, 2021081306, , BEST, 0, 152N, 465W, 30, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 120, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 020,

Genesis?

[AlphaToOmega]

AL, 95, 2021081212, , BEST, 0, 142N, 412W, 30, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1013, 120, 15, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 020,
AL, 95, 2021081218, , BEST, 0, 144N, 430W, 30, 1010, LO, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 120, 20, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 020,
AL, 95, 2021081300, , BEST, 0, 148N, 448W, 30, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 120, 20, 40, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 020,
AL, 95, 2021081306, , BEST, 0, 152N, 465W, 30, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 120, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, M, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 020,

Genesis?

AL, 95, 2021080918, , BEST, 0, 115N, 206W, 25, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 180, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS020, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 020,
AL, 95, 2021081000, , BEST, 0, 115N, 224W, 25, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 180, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS020, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 020,
AL, 95, 2021081006, , BEST, 0, 115N, 242W, 25, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 180, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS020, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 020,
AL, 95, 2021081012, , BEST, 0, 115N, 261W, 25, 1012, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1014, 180, 50, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, GENESIS020, , 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 020,
AL, 95, 2021081018, , BEST, 0, 117N, 278W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 0, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 020, SPAWNINVEST, al722021 to al952021,

[Zonacane]

GCANE, Aric, where art thou?

[AlphaToOmega]

According to best track data, Invest 95L has been downgraded from a low to a disturbance. I still think it will develop; it is so close to a tropical cyclone.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1426130999327526913

[tiger_deF]

Convection has waned considerably, but the competing vortex to the South has effectively completely died out. I wager we see a TS by 11pm.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Convection has waned considerably, but the competing vortex to the South has effectively completely died out. I wager we see a TS by 11pm.

If we see convection build back up and an evident closed low, that may be the case. I think that it will develop a bit later imho

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1426133816192741377



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1426134335451803650



 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1426134936369745920

[aspen]

Convection has waned considerably, but the competing vortex to the South has effectively completely died out. I wager we see a TS by 11pm.

A TD by the end of the day is possible, but I think it’s more likely to be sometime tomorrow. Convection needs to build back over the CoC, and once that happens, it should be close to classifiable.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Nhc has it at 80/80
Invest 95L has got both my eyes on it now. (Fred is disappointing right now)

[AlphaToOmega]

731
ABNT20 KNHC 131150
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Fred, located near the north-central coast of Cuba.

Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized
since yesterday near an area of low pressure located about 850
miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions are
becoming more conducive for additional development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form over the next day or two while moving
toward the west or west-northwest at about 20 mph. This system is
expected to reach portions of the Leeward Islands Saturday night
and then the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Sunday and Sunday night.
Tropical storm watches or warnings could be required later today or
tonight for portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico, since strong winds and heavy rainfall are likely to
spread across those areas over the weekend, regardless of the
system's development. Interests in these areas should continue to
monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

[aspen]

731
ABNT20 KNHC 131150
TWOAT

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Fri Aug 13 2021

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Tropical
Depression Fred, located near the north-central coast of Cuba.

Showers and thunderstorms have become a little better organized
since yesterday near an area of low pressure located about 850
miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions are
becoming more conducive for additional development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form over the next day or two while moving
toward the west or west-northwest at about 20 mph. This system is
expected to reach portions of the Leeward Islands Saturday night
and then the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Sunday and Sunday night.
Tropical storm watches or warnings could be required later today or
tonight for portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and
Puerto Rico, since strong winds and heavy rainfall are likely to
spread across those areas over the weekend, regardless of the
system's development. Interests in these areas should continue to
monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

Looks like we’ll have PTC-7 within the next 24 hours. If 95L quickly organizes today, they may need to initiate PTC advisories by 5pm.

[toad strangler]

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1425977681456377859?s=20

Africa is so active it's got outflow screaming westward?

https://i.imgur.com/LRmk5Sv.gif

SAL is dying out

That's not SAL, it's well south. Look at the SAL maps.

I assumed SAL …. must be just dry air. My bad. Anyway, getting juicy out there.

[Dean4Storms]

MLC is way out in front racing to the west.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Convection has waned considerably, but the competing vortex to the South has effectively completely died out. I wager we see a TS by 11pm.

If we see convection build back up and an evident closed low, that may be the case. I think that it will develop a bit later imho

I change my mind. I think Tc at 11pm. Thing is rapidly organizing right now. This is a serious invest right here.

[Shell Mound]

In the short term, easterly shear is still likely to prevent 95L from consolidating, and near the Leeward Islands a TUTT should induce westerly shear as well. The EPS and GEFS suggest that shear will remain generally unfavourable until 22 August, by which time 95L is projected to be near or over the northwestern Bahamas. As this occurs, mid-level ridging vacates the immediate region and lifts northeastward, as a deepening shortwave trough approaches the Great Lakes. 95L would find itself in a col over or near the northwestern Bahamas, with weak steering currents and slackening shear in place at that time. Both models suggest that development is likely to occur close to the Southeastern U.S., and that it could occur fairly rapidly, as several models initially—perhaps spuriously—intimated in regard to Fred. 95L seems most likely to pose a potential threat, if any, to the extreme northwestern Bahamas and GA/SC at this stage.

[aspen]

12z best track position appears to be between the two convective masses. There is displacement between the MLC and LLC, but banding has improved over the last few hours, and shear should be lessening. 95L will likely be a TC by the time it reaches the NE Lesser Antilles, although I doubt it’ll be a hurricane by then. Probably a modest TS until it gets north of the islands and away from the ridiculous plume of easterly flow from Africa.