ATL: HENRI - Remnants - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/877646969856749618/20210818.png

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/877647135015854080/20210818.png

First is upper, second is low levels.

Looks like a borderline cane too me.

[AutoPenalti]

That has to be a Cat 1 soon.

[edu2703]

West shift

[cycloneye]

Important portion from discussion:

The models continue their westward
shift, and the NHC track forecast has again been adjusted in that
direction and no longer shows a northeastward motion out to sea. In
particular, the westward adjustment at day 5 was a sizable 150
miles, and even with this shift the NHC forecast is still a little
to the east of some of the consensus aids. NOAA Gulfstream IV
missions and special weather balloon soundings have been scheduled,
and it is hoped that this additional data will help the models
handle the evolving steering pattern. Given the uncertainty in the
longer range track forecast, users should be prepared for additional
adjustments to the NHC track prediction in future forecast cycles.

[pgoss11]

Buckle up New Englanders! It’s been awhile since we’ve had a tropical threat but apparently it’s ON!

[storminabox]

Why are they so hesitant to upgrade Henri to a hurricane?

[captainbarbossa19]

Buckle up New Englanders! It’s been awhile since we’ve had a tropical threat but apparently it’s ON!

And unlike Sandy, this threat is in late August which is more favorable for a true tropical system. It will be interesting to see what happens.

[aspen]

Seeing how well Henri is doing despite 15-20kt of shear, it will likely survive the burst of increased northerly flow tonight and tomorrow, and it could RI once the shear drops on Friday and it gets over the Gulf Stream. I really hope it won’t be stronger than Sandy or Isaias by the time it gets up here, if it does make landfall in the NE.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Seeing how well Henri is doing despite 15-20kt of shear, it will likely survive the burst of increased northerly flow tonight and tomorrow, and it could RI once the shear drops on Friday and it gets over the Gulf Stream. I really hope it won’t be stronger than Sandy or Isaias by the time it gets up here, if it does make landfall in the NE.

Sandy was a different beast all together so you can't really compare it to a true tropical system like this

[Woofde]

Local Mets up here are already starting to talk about Henri. Going to fill up on gas and supplies before everyone starts freaking out.

[IcyTundra]

If the forecast verifies and New England gets a hurricane landfall I think Bob from 1991 would be a better analog than Sandy. Henri formed in the subtropics like Bob and Henri formed at the exact same time of year (Henri on August 15th and Bob on August 16th). Henri would be slightly weaker at landfall than Bob imo but with all things considered I think Bob would be the closest analog in recent history.

[aspen]

Seeing how well Henri is doing despite 15-20kt of shear, it will likely survive the burst of increased northerly flow tonight and tomorrow, and it could RI once the shear drops on Friday and it gets over the Gulf Stream. I really hope it won’t be stronger than Sandy or Isaias by the time it gets up here, if it does make landfall in the NE.

Sandy was a different beast all together so you can't really compare it to a true tropical system like this

I know, but it was a tropical system mere hours before landfall, and my town got winds of up to 50-60 kt from both systems. If Henri does make landfall in Long Island/Connecticut as a Cat 1, it would probably produce stronger winds here.

The storm that definitely shouldn’t be compared is the May 2018 Derecho/Macroburst. It’s a totally different type of storm, and while it did produce winds of 95 kt, it was so brief and nothing like a 95 kt TC making landfall.

[floridasun78]

i notice that Henri keep losing longitude now at 29.9 was 31.0 other day could that mean high stronger and expect and pulling more south and west florida due west at 30.0 longitude to 25.0 longitude let see keep losing longitude

[tolakram]

Sure looks like a hurricane to me. It's not really important to upgrade now, and I'm sure it will be reviewed post season, but I do think Henri is a hurricane.

[Happy Pelican]

The Nj barriers are packed with tourists plus a full moon this weekend. This could be trouble. Double check my kits tomorrow and maybe grab some essentials before the grocery store is even more cleaned out than usual.

[Yellow Evan]

TXNT23 KNES 182344
TCSNTL

A. 08L (HENRI)

B. 18/2331Z

C. 29.9N

D. 67.9W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T4.0/4.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...A LLCC EMBEDDED IN LG RESULTS IN A DT OF 4.5. THE MET IS 4.0
BASED ON A DEVELOPING TREND OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT IS ALSO 4.0. FT
IS BASED ON MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT POSITION OF THE LLCC.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...COVERDALE

[CyclonicFury]

TAFB still at T3.5

AL, 08, 202108190000, 10, DVTS, CI, , 2980N, 6790W, , 2, 55, 2, 994, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , L, TAFB, EC, I, 3, 3535 /////, , , GOES16, CSC, T,

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looks like the north side is getting smushed (a technical term)

[tolakram]

saved loop

[TallyTracker]

Looks like the north side is getting smushed (a technical term)

I still see outflow streaming north above the smushed clouds. It looks like it may be some mid-level shear.