ATL: IDA - Models

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HoustonFrog
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#181 Postby HoustonFrog » Wed Aug 25, 2021 9:50 am

Blinhart wrote:
Shell Mound wrote:
IcyTundra wrote:
Would be a catastrophic scenario for SW Louisiana don't think they can take another Major Hurricane hit. I'm hoping for the sake of SW Louisiana that this goes somewhere else.

There is plenty of room for 99L to go elsewhere. We are still "early in the game."

5 days from landfall isn't that far away. TWC 10 day forecast for my area has changed a good amount from yesterday, so people and state officials need more than 72 hours to get everything done, yet we don't know anything. It is just a scary situation.


I think it's the natural push and pull between professional mets and everyone else. Government officials and the public want 5 days of lead time to get fully ready, while mets don't want to give hard guidance until 24-48 hours out. I can see both sides. The mets get hammered when they issue hard guidance that turns out to be wrong, while the public rightfully needs time to prepare and not everybody can/will get prepared early for every storm in the chance it lands on them. I mean I wasted hours preparing for Laura last year because nobody would put their foot in the ground until 24 hours out. I got at most a couple 25 mph gusts at my house and literally zero rain.

This post chain probably belongs in the discussion thread. Feel free to delete mods.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#182 Postby SoupBone » Wed Aug 25, 2021 9:53 am

00Z Navgem is WAY east

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#183 Postby IcyTundra » Wed Aug 25, 2021 9:57 am

How good of model is the NAVGEM? I Never hear people talk about it so I assume it isn't the best.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#184 Postby hurricane2025 » Wed Aug 25, 2021 9:58 am

That’s the worse model ever lol
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#185 Postby SoupBone » Wed Aug 25, 2021 10:00 am

IcyTundra wrote:How good of model is the NAVGEM? I Never hear people talk about it so I assume it isn't the best.



It's not a reliable one.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#186 Postby SoupBone » Wed Aug 25, 2021 10:19 am

The 12Z ICON at 93 hours appears to be headed for the Louisiana coast. Still a ways from finishing the run though.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#187 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 25, 2021 10:19 am

GFS, CMC and Euro have this hitting LA or that general area. Sure, they might all shift, but the last time we had 3 models agreeing with a landfall location it ended up being reasonably close. IMO this means the current upper air setup is not that complex so the models agree.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#188 Postby 3090 » Wed Aug 25, 2021 10:21 am

tolakram wrote:GFS, CMC and Euro have this hitting LA or that general area. Sure, they might all shift, but the last time we had 3 models agreeing with a landfall location it ended up being reasonably close. IMO this means the current upper air setup is not that complex so the models agree.

Thanks. We do not need this.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#189 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 25, 2021 10:23 am

3090 wrote:
tolakram wrote:GFS, CMC and Euro have this hitting LA or that general area. Sure, they might all shift, but the last time we had 3 models agreeing with a landfall location it ended up being reasonably close. IMO this means the current upper air setup is not that complex so the models agree.

Thanks. We do not need this.


Yea, I'm kind of in denial LA is going to go through this crap again. Be prepared, have a plan, and hope all the models are wrong. It hasn't formed yet, so there's still a chance for some decent shifts.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#190 Postby HouTXmetro » Wed Aug 25, 2021 10:23 am

tolakram wrote:GFS, CMC and Euro have this hitting LA or that general area. Sure, they might all shift, but the last time we had 3 models agreeing with a landfall location it ended up being reasonably close. IMO this means the current upper air setup is not that complex so the models agree.


Yep, same thing I'm thinking. It's amazing how in one day the major models have seem to come into agreement even with no COC.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#191 Postby bella_may » Wed Aug 25, 2021 10:24 am

Everything seems to be shifting East
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#192 Postby Steve » Wed Aug 25, 2021 10:28 am

SoupBone wrote:The 12Z ICON at 93 hours appears to be headed for the Louisiana coast. Still a ways from finishing the run though.


I got 99L models and NAVGEM ain't one. ICON at 99 hours (jump on TT) looks to still have a solid W component crossing 90.4 around 25.4. This could get a lot farther west on this run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#193 Postby dantonlsu » Wed Aug 25, 2021 10:29 am

HouTXmetro wrote:
tolakram wrote:GFS, CMC and Euro have this hitting LA or that general area. Sure, they might all shift, but the last time we had 3 models agreeing with a landfall location it ended up being reasonably close. IMO this means the current upper air setup is not that complex so the models agree.


Yep, same thing I'm thinking. It's amazing how in one day the major models have seem to come into agreement even with no COC.


We don't have a defined COC & yesterday at this point everything was pointing to STX/Mexico. Too early for this.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#194 Postby bella_may » Wed Aug 25, 2021 10:32 am

Steve wrote:
SoupBone wrote:The 12Z ICON at 93 hours appears to be headed for the Louisiana coast. Still a ways from finishing the run though.


I got 99L models and NAVGEM ain't one. ICON at 99 hours (jump on TT) looks to still have a solid W component crossing 90.4 around 25.4. This could get a lot farther west on this run.

It’s further East compared to previous run
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#195 Postby lsuhurricane » Wed Aug 25, 2021 10:32 am

I got 99L models and NAVGEM ain't one. ICON at 99 hours (jump on TT) looks to still have a solid W component crossing 90.4 around 25.4. This could get a lot farther west on this run.


Made landfall in Vermilion Parish as a Cat 3. 963mb.

Eastern shift. When ICON shows a storm with pressure that low, I fear for what the GFS will show shortly.
Last edited by lsuhurricane on Wed Aug 25, 2021 10:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#196 Postby SoupBone » Wed Aug 25, 2021 10:32 am

12Z ICON at 126 hours

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#197 Postby Steve » Wed Aug 25, 2021 10:36 am

dantonlsu wrote:
HouTXmetro wrote:
tolakram wrote:GFS, CMC and Euro have this hitting LA or that general area. Sure, they might all shift, but the last time we had 3 models agreeing with a landfall location it ended up being reasonably close. IMO this means the current upper air setup is not that complex so the models agree.


Yep, same thing I'm thinking. It's amazing how in one day the major models have seem to come into agreement even with no COC.


We don't have a defined COC & yesterday at this point everything was pointing to STX/Mexico. Too early for this.


It's the models thread.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#198 Postby SoupBone » Wed Aug 25, 2021 10:50 am

Is the 12Z GFS bonkers? At 48 hours I'm not seeing anything.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#199 Postby BobHarlem » Wed Aug 25, 2021 10:52 am

SoupBone wrote:Is the 12Z GFS bonkers? At 48 hours I'm not seeing anything.


Earlier runs didn't either, it just sort of "appears" west of the Caymans roughly 60 hours out (somewhat detached from where 99L is tagged at now to the point where I'm not really sure it's 99L at all).
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Re: ATL: INVEST 99L - Models

#200 Postby cheezyWXguy » Wed Aug 25, 2021 10:55 am

If the gfs shifts notably further east this run, I am going to be skeptical. At 60hr there are still competing centers, and it seems to be latching onto an eastern one that doesn’t appear to be the primary center. I guess we will see how it evolves though
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