ATL: LARRY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[grapealcoholic]

It's an eye

[TorSkk]

This beautiful color party is my attempt to overlay the NHC forecast on top of the MPI map. They use slightly different map projections so it'll never be precisely the same, but hopefully this gives an indication of Larry's future. Larry will be in high (cat 4) MPIs until Friday when he will spend about 24 - 48 hrs in lower (cat 3) MPIs. If Larry wants to intensify, these MPIs aren't sufficient to stop Larry from becoming a MH, but this should at least prevent Larry from immediately bombing to a cat 4 or something like that. However, around Sunday Larry will enter the cat 4 MPIs again and that's probably when it'll intensify further. However, one very important note to make is that just south of Larry's forecast, hurricane potential is way higher. If Larry tracks just 2 degrees south of its current forecast it could remain in cat 4 MPIs and even reach cat 5 waters. So basically, the further south Larry goes the stronger he'll probably get.

https://i.imgur.com/LKk0Qro.jpg

Also MPI from CIMSS

[tolakram]

SLIDER

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=19273.173828125&y=8358.32666015625&z=5&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&lat=0&p%5B0%5D=band_02&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6

From the COD loop

[cheezyWXguy]

That’s an eye. Maybe a “proto” eye since it’s not super well formed yet, but it’s definitely not a dry slot. Watch a satellite archive of Isabel, this is the exact same process.

[TallyTracker]

I agree with the others on this. It looks like an eye starting to wrap up. I’d go with 65-70 with that presentation.

[tolakram]

It's a mid-level eye, I believe the NHC has labeled these before.

[Steve H.]

Yeah at first I thought it was a break in the convection, but it’s an eye.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Yeah at first I thought it was a break in the convection, but it’s an eye.

wow yeah. impressive.

[AtlanticWind]

Thats a pretty well defined eye , I think larrys rapidly intensifying

[Woofde]

Larry looks a lot more impressive than a 50 mph storm IMO.

[aspen]

This is probably closer to 55-60 kt by now, although since a lot of the convection is rather shallow, some satellite estimates are only around 50 kt. There hasn’t been any new microwave passes to determine if this is the start of a smaller eye forming.

[SouthDadeFish]

That's an eye y'all.

[Kazmit]

That eye will be sticking around for the next 10 days or so.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

60 knots might be closer to the actual intensity, IMHO.

[Blown Away]

That eye will be sticking around for the next 10 days or so.

So cool, especially the models picking up on this unusually large eye. Hope it’s goes annular with an @40+ mile wide eye like Linda.

[psyclone]

We've seen plenty of examples of a convective break/dry slot morphing into an eye Like real estate... location is key. It's definitely an eye now.

[AutoPenalti]

Wow, how violent must that MLC be for it have an eye already...

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TylerJStanfield/status/1433124926542733314

[aspen]

Eye spy

[galaxy401]

Literally looks like someone punctured a hole into the middle of Larry.

He reminds me a lot of Irma early in her life though this one should curve more northwards eventually.