EPAC: OLAF - Post-Tropical

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Re: EPAC: OLAF - Hurricane

#181 Postby grapealcoholic » Thu Sep 09, 2021 7:12 pm

Don't see how Cabo San Lucas escapes the NW wall
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Re: EPAC: OLAF - Hurricane

#182 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Sep 09, 2021 7:13 pm

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Re: EPAC: OLAF - Hurricane

#183 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Sep 09, 2021 7:15 pm

Olaf is likely one of those systems that looks unappealing on satellite but packs a decent punch of intense winds beneath the cloud. Actual landfall intensity could be as high as 100kts or higher
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Re: EPAC: OLAF - Hurricane

#184 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Sep 09, 2021 7:17 pm

MW presentation is improving quickly and is beginning to support the idea of a major hurricane:
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Re: EPAC: OLAF - Hurricane

#185 Postby grapealcoholic » Thu Sep 09, 2021 7:19 pm

Kingarabian wrote:MW presentation is improving quickly and is beginning to support the idea of a major hurricane:
https://i.imgur.com/qB24mHj.png

That's not good. It has maybe 3-4 more hours before landfall I'd guess
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Re: EPAC: OLAF - Hurricane

#186 Postby supercane4867 » Thu Sep 09, 2021 7:24 pm

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Re: EPAC: OLAF - Hurricane

#187 Postby grapealcoholic » Thu Sep 09, 2021 7:25 pm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 09 SEP 2021 Time : 235031 UTC
Lat : 22:30:51 N Lon : 109:13:30 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.8 / 968.4mb/ 84.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.8 5.4 5.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -33.5C Cloud Region Temp : -64.4C

Scene Type : EYE
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Re: EPAC: OLAF - Hurricane

#188 Postby Astromanía » Thu Sep 09, 2021 7:26 pm

Eyewall is about to reach San Jose del Cabo
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Re: EPAC: OLAF - Hurricane

#189 Postby sikkar » Thu Sep 09, 2021 7:26 pm

@ supercane, Try channel 11, has no artifacts.
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Re: EPAC: OLAF - Hurricane

#190 Postby Astromanía » Thu Sep 09, 2021 7:28 pm

supercane4867 wrote:Olaf is likely one of those systems that looks unappealing on satellite but packs a decent punch of intense winds beneath the cloud. Actual landfall intensity could be as high as 100kts or higher

I guess we will know when josh data is up
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Re: EPAC: OLAF - Hurricane

#191 Postby grapealcoholic » Thu Sep 09, 2021 7:30 pm

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Re: EPAC: OLAF - Hurricane

#192 Postby Sciencerocks » Thu Sep 09, 2021 7:31 pm

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Re: EPAC: OLAF - Hurricane

#193 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Sep 09, 2021 7:39 pm

SAB 4.5:
A. 15E (OLAF)

B. 09/2330Z

C. 22.5N

D. 109.0W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T4.5/4.5

G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSR2

H. REMARKS...AN EYE THAT IS EMBEDDED WITHIN DG RESULTS IN AN ENO OF
4.5. AN OW EYE SURROUNDED BY MG RESULTS IN AN EADJ OF 0.0. THE RESULTING
DT IS 4.5. THE MET IS 4.0 BASED ON A RAPIDLY DEVELOPING TREND OVER THE
PAST 24 HOURS. THE PT IS 4.0 AS WELL. THE FT IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

09/2008Z 22.2N 108.8W AMSR2


...HOSLEY

They have the eye embedded in DG. Oh well.
Last edited by Kingarabian on Thu Sep 09, 2021 7:40 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: EPAC: OLAF - Hurricane

#194 Postby SconnieCane » Thu Sep 09, 2021 7:39 pm

Boy, did this come out of nowhere. Wasn't expecting this in what was supposed to be a down year for the EPAC.
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Re: EPAC: OLAF - Hurricane

#195 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Sep 09, 2021 7:43 pm

Strong tower going off in the NE eyewall.

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Re: EPAC: OLAF - Hurricane

#196 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Sep 09, 2021 7:48 pm

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Re: EPAC: OLAF - Hurricane

#197 Postby Yellow Evan » Thu Sep 09, 2021 7:50 pm

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Re: EPAC: OLAF - Hurricane

#198 Postby grapealcoholic » Thu Sep 09, 2021 7:58 pm

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Re: EPAC: OLAF - Hurricane

#199 Postby Kingarabian » Thu Sep 09, 2021 8:00 pm

I mean...
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Re: EPAC: OLAF - Hurricane

#200 Postby grapealcoholic » Thu Sep 09, 2021 8:01 pm

Kingarabian wrote:I mean...
https://i.imgur.com/NMFQ3Ge.png

Cat 4
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